AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 55 points was 12 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend — Roosters have a 61% win rate under this referee. Despite Grant Atkins's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 2.5 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
42%
Roosters
58%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 136-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1395). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Line / Spread
Roosters +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WWLLL | 20.4 |
Roosters | WWWLL | 29.6 |
Avg Conceded
28.0
Dragons
17.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
-7.6
Dragons
12.0
Roosters
Run Metres
1594
Dragons
1731
Roosters
Line Breaks
3.8
Dragons
5.0
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 33 of 54 games (61%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dragons's 15 from 36 (42%). That's a 19‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.5
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