Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 2.5 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 55 points was 12 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
42%
Roosters
58%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 136-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1395). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Line / Spread
Roosters +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Roosters | W W W L L | 29.6 |
Avg Conceded
28.0
Dragons
17.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
-7.6
Dragons
12.0
Roosters
Run Metres
1594
Dragons
1731
Roosters
Line Breaks
3.8
Dragons
5.0
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 35 of 56 games (63%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 15 from 38 (39%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.