# Dragons v Roosters — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 24 – 31 Roosters

_Roosters strut past Dragons._

Half time: 18 – 19 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 42% / Roosters 58% · Jubilee Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 12 July, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (7' Tipped ⚡), Sione Finau (13'), Sione Finau (17'), Jaydn Su'A (65') · Roosters: Daniel Tupou (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Daniel Tupou (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Robert Toia (30'), Billy Smith (46' Tipped ⚡), Victor Radley (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 58% | Won |
| Dragons | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 24–31 Roosters in NRL Round 19 at Jubilee Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The passage that decided this one came with the Roosters down a man. Sam Walker was sin binned in the 25th minute with his side trailing 16-12, and instead of the Dragons pouncing on the extra man, it was Robert Toia who crossed five minutes later to put the Roosters back in front, 18-16. Walker made amends properly two minutes before the break with a one-point field goal, and the Roosters went to the sheds up 19-18. A team spends ten minutes short a player and still walks away leading. That tells you plenty about how this game actually went.

The final score read Dragons 24, Roosters 31, and the shape of the contest was set from there. Billy Smith's try early in the second half stretched it to 18-23, Jaydn Su'A hit back for the Dragons at the 64th minute to make it 22-25, and Victor Radley's try in the 77th had the Roosters out to 24-29 before the game was shut the rest of the way.

Daniel Tupou did the early damage, scoring twice inside the first ten minutes to have the Roosters 0-4 then 6-10 up before the Dragons had settled. Sione Finau answered with a double of his own either side of the quarter-hour mark to briefly put the home side in front at 16-12. It just didn't hold.

Look at the stat sheet and the Dragons actually come out ahead in a few columns that usually decide these things. More possession, 51% to 49%. Fewer errors, 9 to 10. More run metres, 1,788 to 1,580. None of it mattered, because the areas where the Roosters were stronger were the areas that count when the game's on the line. Tackle breaks went 35-21 their way, offloads 9-7, line breaks 5-4. When Roosters forwards got involved, they got through you.

Defence was where it really came apart for St George Illawarra. Missed tackles ran 35 to 21 in the Roosters' favour, and their effective tackle rate of 92% against the Dragons' 87.8% is the gap that let those line breaks turn into points. Territory told the same story: 519 kick metres to 359 meant the Roosters spent the night making the Dragons work back from deep.

None of it should come as a shock given what went in beforehand. The Roosters carried the stronger rating across every position group, forwards 1193 to 1085, hooker 1219 to 1085, and arrived off a form line averaging 29.6 points a game against 17.6 conceded. The Dragons had been leaking 28 points a game over their last five. Add it up and the pre-match numbers had Roosters favourites at 58%, with a modest 2.5-point margin.

The final margin of seven was a bit wider than tipped but well within reason, and the Roosters comfortably covered the 5.5-point line. Alphr's model called the winner and landed close enough on the margin. The result itself, a competitive top-eight arm wrestle that turned on a sin-bin period the shorthanded side somehow won, was the part no model was ever going to see coming.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| Roosters | 19 | 12 | 31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| **1,788** | Run metres | 1,580 |
| **552** | Post-contact metres | 534 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 87.8% | Effective tackle % | **92.0%** |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| **9** | Errors | 10 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 359 | Kick metres | **519** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 2.5 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 6/16 on this match. Roosters covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 55 points was 12 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 7' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 10' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 13' Try — Sione Finau (Dragons) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Sione Finau (Dragons) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Sin Bin — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 30' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 18-19 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 45' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 18-23 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 64' Try — Jaydn Su'A (Dragons) — 22-25 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 77' Try — Victor Radley (Roosters) — 24-29 · win-prob swing -7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.50 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 58.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 58%, but Dragons stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 136 ELO points clear, 1530 to 1395. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Dragons.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 62-16 in 2026 Round 8.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Dragons 11th against Roosters 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 2 · Roosters 8 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 62-16 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 11th · Roosters 9th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Roosters 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 15W–23L | 39% |
| Roosters | 37W–22L | 63% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 37 of 59 games (63%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 15 from 38 (39%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | 12.0pts |
| 1594.0m | Run Metres | 1730.6m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 375.4 | Tackles | 382.0 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 20.4 |
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Dragons | 16 – 62 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R8 | Roosters | 46 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R18 | Roosters | 42 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R8 | Dragons | 18 – 60 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R12 | Dragons | 24 – 22 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 14th there (1.87 conceded/game). Key man: Gutherson, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2.07 conceded/game). Key man: Tedesco, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.47/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.07/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.8/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.87/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 12 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 181m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 88.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 38 | 42 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 743m/g | 740m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 20.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.5% | 82.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 471m/g | 519m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.45) +40% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.43) +40%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 7/14g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Sione Finau | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 13' 17' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/22g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/20g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/15g | 1/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Michael Molo | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 16/22g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 11/18g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 10' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 13 in 14g | 11/10g (0·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·2·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1395 · Roosters 1530 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1085 (best 1269) | 1193 (best 1361) | Roosters +109 |
| Backs | 1049 (best 1134) | 1134 (best 1200) | Roosters +86 |
| Halves | 1100 (best 1100) | 1140 (best 1140) | Roosters +40 |
| Hooker | 1085 | 1219 | Roosters +134 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Roosters predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)