AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 31 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Bulldogs bucked the trend — Cowboys historically win 67% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 61% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Bulldogs by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 39. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
39%
Bulldogs
61%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 39%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Bulldogs carry a 136-point ELO rating advantage (1541 vs 1404). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.9 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WLLLL | 15.2 |
Bulldogs | WWLLL | 17.2 |
Avg Conceded
37.6
Cowboys
20.8
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-22.4
Cowboys
-3.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1560
Cowboys
1749
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.4
Cowboys
3.4
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Cowboys hold a 7‑point edge: 2W–1L (67%) vs Bulldogs's 3W–2L (60%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 51.0 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Cowboys — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
51.0 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: -2.9
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.