# Cowboys v Bulldogs — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 8 – 12 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs muzzle Cowboys in a tight one._

Half time: 8 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 39% / Bulldogs 61% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 12 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Zac Laybutt (16' 1st) · Bulldogs: Jacob Preston (36' Tipped ⚡), Jethro Rinakama (40' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 61% | Won |
| Cowboys | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 8–12 Bulldogs in NRL Round 19 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs 12, Cowboys 8 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. Read the scoreline and you'd guess a tight arm wrestle decided by a moment here or there. Read the stat sheet and you'd think Cowboys won comfortably.

Cowboys had five line breaks to two. They busted 57 tackles to the Bulldogs' 30, a gap that's hard to ignore in a game decided by four points. Their defence was tighter too, an effective tackle rate of 87.9% against 83.7%, and they conceded just three penalties to the Bulldogs' seven. On the raw eye test, Cowboys look like the team that did more with the ball. They just didn't have enough of it at the right times.

The scoring tells the real story of when it mattered. Zac Laybutt opened the account in the 15th minute, Cowboys up 4-0 and looking the goods. Jacob Preston hit back for the Bulldogs in the 35th to make it 8-4, and then Jethro Rinakama crossed right on the stroke of half-time, the 39th minute, to flip it to 8-10 at the break. That's the game right there: two tries in four minutes either side of half-time turned a four-point Cowboys lead into a two-point Bulldogs one, and the scoreboard never moved again after that.

Completion rate is where the Bulldogs actually won this. They finished at 79% to the Cowboys' 65%, and errors were close, 15 to 17 in the Cowboys' favour, but the pattern of when the ball went to ground mattered more than the count. Bulldogs also edged the run metres, 1,899 to 1,887, and post-contact metres, 661 to 620, grinding out the extra hard yards after contact that keep sets alive. Add in ten offloads to nine and it's a side that held the ball better when it counted, even if the Cowboys made more of their touches once they had it.

Missed tackles were the other big swing, 57 for the Bulldogs against just 30 for the Cowboys. That's a lot of extra work defensively, and it lines up with the Cowboys' five line breaks. Kicking metres were close, 770 to 724 in the Cowboys' favour, so field position wasn't the difference either. Possession was almost dead even, 51% to 49%.

Alphr's model had the Bulldogs on top before kickoff, rating them 1541 to the Cowboys' 1404 and giving them a 61% win probability. It picked the Bulldogs by 2.9 points, four points is close enough to call that one sharp. Where it missed badly was the total, tipping 39 points combined when the game produced just 20, 19 points under. Bulldogs covered the 7.5-line and the under 47.5 total landed, so the model went 5 from 16 on this match overall.

The pre-match numbers pointed to a contest between an out-of-form Cowboys outfit and a Bulldogs side building some momentum. Cowboys had won just once in their last five, averaging 15.2 points scored and leaking 37.6, an average margin of minus 22.4. Bulldogs had won two of five, scoring 17.2 and conceding 20.8, a far tighter minus 3.6 margin. The halves rating gap, 1184 to 906 in the Bulldogs' favour, loomed largest of all the positional splits, and it showed in the moments that decided the four-point margin at the death.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Bulldogs | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 65% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,887 | Run metres | **1,899** |
| 620 | Post-contact metres | **661** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **57** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| **87.9%** | Effective tackle % | 83.7% |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 57 |
| 17 | Errors | **15** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **770** | Kick metres | 724 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 61% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 39. The model went 5/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 7.5-point line. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 30 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 63% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Zac Laybutt (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 35' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.42 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 61%, but Cowboys stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 136 ELO points clear, 1541 to 1404. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Cowboys.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cowboys have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 9.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 12th against Bulldogs 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 28-12 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 12th · Bulldogs 3rd |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Bulldogs 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Bulldogs | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 13-point edge: 5W–3L (63%) vs Cowboys's 3W–3L (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Cowboys).

Cowboys get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -2.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 37.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -22.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 1560.4m | Run Metres | 1749.4m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 363.8 | Tackles | 360.6 |
| 14.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 15.2 |
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Bulldogs | 12 – 28 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R27 | Bulldogs | 6 – 44 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R20 | Cowboys | 20 – 18 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R5 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R21 | Bulldogs | 14 – 28 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 3rd there (0.87 conceded/game). Key man: Derby, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 16th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.07/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.19/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th) | 1.73/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 11 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 210m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 45 | 27 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 747m/g | 792m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 15.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 81.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 19 | 18 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 446m/g | 457m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.53/g (lg 0.45) +18% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.68) +13% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 4/7g | 19/64g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (3·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 9 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 5/14g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 19/48g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 3/62g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 18/62g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Reuben Cotter | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/39g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 25/38g | 44% | — | — |
| 13 | Harrison Edwards | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 6/49g | 4% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 1/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 13 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | INT | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1404 · Bulldogs 1541 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1116 (best 1275) | 1081 (best 1254) | Cowboys +35 |
| Backs | 1054 (best 1140) | 1036 (best 1092) | Cowboys +19 |
| Halves | 906 (best 906) | 1184 (best 1184) | Bulldogs +278 |
| Hooker | 1065 | 1101 | Bulldogs +36 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Cowboys |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)