Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Rabbitohs historically win 50% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
73%
Rabbitohs
27%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1448 vs 1351). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Rabbitohs | L L L L L | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Sea Eagles
34.2
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
0.4
Sea Eagles
-11.8
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1801
Sea Eagles
1513
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.2
Sea Eagles
4.6
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Rabbitohs hold a 10-point edge: 3W–3L (50%) vs Sea Eagles's 2W–3L (40%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Sea Eagles).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.5
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