# Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 30 – 12 Rabbitohs

_Sea Eagles soar past Rabbitohs._

Half time: 14 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 73% / Rabbitohs 27% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 06 July, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Reuben Garrick (18' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tom Trbojevic (27'), Reuben Garrick (31' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tom Trbojevic (44'), Daly Cherry-Evans (53'), Tolutau Koula (78' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Tallis Duncan (59'), Tallis Duncan (62'), Isaiah Tass (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 73% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.5 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 30–12 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 18 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles beat Rabbitohs 30-12 at Brookvale Oval, and on paper that looks like a tidy home win. It wasn't. At one stage it was 24-0, which means Rabbitohs actually outscored the home side 12-6 across the back half of the match. The final margin flatters the visitors more than the game itself did.

The story was set by half-time, when Sea Eagles led 14-0. Reuben Garrick opened the account in the 17th minute, Tom Trbojevic doubled the lead in the 27th, and Garrick's second on the half-hour mark made it 14-0 at the break without Rabbitohs troubling the scoreboard once. That's not a slow start from the visitors, that's no start at all.

Sea Eagles kept the foot down after the break. Trbojevic's second try in the 43rd minute made it 18-0, and Daly Cherry-Evans stretched it to 24-0 ten minutes later. By that point the game had the look of a rout, and the underlying numbers backed it up: Sea Eagles were running the ball for 1,501 metres to 1,309, breaking the line six times to four, and doing it all with just 10 errors against Rabbitohs's 13.

Then Rabbitohs found some life. Tallis Duncan scored twice inside four minutes, in the 58th and 61st, and Isaiah Tass added a third in the 76th to drag the margin back to 24-12. For a passage there, the scoreboard actually looked like a contest. Tolutau Koula's try two minutes later put it beyond doubt again, and the extras took it out to the final 30-12.

Rabbitohs's defence was the issue all night. They missed 36 tackles to Sea Eagles's 29, and their effective tackle rate of 88.9% against 89.9% doesn't sound like much of a gap until you look at what it let through: six line breaks and 36 tackle busts conceded. Their own ball-handling didn't help either, with 13 errors and a completion rate of just 76% against Sea Eagles's 80%.

The pre-match numbers pointed exactly this way. Sea Eagles came in rated well clear in the halves (1211 to 992) and at hooker (1120 to 970), and that class showed up in the sharpest moments, Cherry-Evans among the try scorers, Garrick doubling up twice. Rabbitohs arrived off a form line that read minus 11.8 points average margin across their last five, conceding an average of 34.2 points a game. Against that backdrop, 12 points and three second-half tries is a mark of some resistance, not collapse.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles at 73% to win with a 9.5-point margin and a combined total of 45. The gap between predicted and actual margin, 9.5 versus 18, was the widest miss in an otherwise solid read. The total of 42 landed within three points of the model's number, and the under on 47.5 came in as tipped. Five from sixteen on the card overall, with the value of the line covered but the margin badly undersold by how comfortable Sea Eagles made it look before Rabbitohs's late rally closed the gap on the scoreboard, if not on the story.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,501** | Run metres | 1,309 |
| **505** | Post-contact metres | 485 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **6** | Offloads | 5 |
| **89.9%** | Effective tackle % | 88.9% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **760** | Kick metres | 687 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 9.5-point line. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 17' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 27' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 30' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 43' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 53' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 58' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 24-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 61' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 24-8 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 76' Try — Isaiah Tass (Rabbitohs) — 24-12 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 78' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.35 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 73% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 96 ELO points clear, 1448 to 1351. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Rabbitohs.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 9.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 28-14 in 2026 Round 14.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 9th against Rabbitohs 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 3 · Rabbitohs 7 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 28-14 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 9th · Rabbitohs 16th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Rabbitohs | 4W–4L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Sea Eagles 3W–3L (50%) and Rabbitohs 4W–4L (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Sea Eagles).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 34.2pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 1801.4m | Run Metres | 1513.4m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 360.4 | Tackles | 375.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 20.4 |
| Rabbitohs | 0W–5L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Sea Eagles | 28 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R16 | Rabbitohs | 14 – 0 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 36 – 24 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 13 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2022 | R8 | Rabbitohs | 40 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 8th there (0.94 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 3rd there (0.87 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.47/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.87/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 10th) | 1.13/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.44/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 11 | 5 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 189m/g | 149m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 30 | 33 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 745m/g | 640m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 78.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 8 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 524m/g | 498m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.27) +67% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.43) +19% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/14g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 22/34g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 19/32g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 4 | Tom Trbojevic | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 36/56g | 40% | — | 🏉 27' 44' |
| 5 | Reuben Garrick | WG | 9 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 5/9g | 38/56g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 31' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/22g | 5/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/24g | 39/135g | 26% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 3/30g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 9/30g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 17/94g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tommy Talau | INT | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 8/13g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/36g | 14% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Johnston | FB | 11 in 8g | 13/10g (2·0·1·0·1·3·1·1·4·0) | 13/17g | 2/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Wighton | 5/8 | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2) | 8/19g | 5/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 59' 62' |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Lewis Dodd | Replacement | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1448 · Rabbitohs 1351 · ELO difference: 96 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 (best 1269) | 1022 (best 1273) | Sea Eagles +79 |
| Backs | 991 (best 1142) | 914 (best 1027) | Sea Eagles +77 |
| Halves | 1211 (best 1211) | 992 (best 992) | Sea Eagles +219 |
| Hooker | 1120 | 970 | Sea Eagles +149 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r18-sea-eagles-v-rabbitohs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)