AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 60% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42 — within 3 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
73%
Rabbitohs
27%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1448 vs 1351). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 20.4 |
Rabbitohs | LLLLL | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Sea Eagles
34.2
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
0.4
Sea Eagles
-11.8
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1801
Sea Eagles
1513
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.2
Sea Eagles
4.6
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Rabbitohs have won 3 of 5 games (60%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 1 from 3 (33%). That's a 27‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.4 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sea Eagles an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Sea Eagles — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.4 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.5
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