NRL | Round 18

alphr.com.au

MAN
Sea Eagles
VS
SOU
Rabbitohs
4 PINES PARK, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 6 JULY, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 60% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42 — within 3 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

73%Sea EaglesFavourite

Sea Eagles

73%

Rabbitohs

27%

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1448 vs 1351). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.5 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.9%

Line / Spread

Sea Eagles -9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.9%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+7.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Sea Eagles
WWLLL
20.4
Rabbitohs
LLLLL
22.4

Avg Conceded

20.0

Sea Eagles

34.2

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

0.4

Sea Eagles

-11.8

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1801

Sea Eagles

1513

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

5.2

Sea Eagles

4.6

Rabbitohs

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Rabbitohs
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MAN
33%1W 2L
SOU
60%3W 2L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Rabbitohs have won 3 of 5 games (60%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 1 from 3 (33%). That's a 27‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.4 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sea Eagles an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Sea Eagles — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.4 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Rabbitohs lead 4-1
Jun 2024MAN 0 - 14 SOU
Mar 2024MAN 36 - 24 SOU
Mar 2023MAN 12 - 13 SOU
Apr 2022MAN 22 - 40 SOU
Sep 2021MAN 16 - 36 SOU
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MAN
1448Overall1351
SOU
ELO difference: +96 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1101Forwards1022
Best: 1269MAN +79Best: 1273
991Backs914
Best: 1142MAN +77Best: 1027
1211Halves992
Best: 1211MAN +219Best: 992
1120Hooker970
MAN +149

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MAN
Stat
SOU
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
22.4pts
20.0pts
Avg Conceded
34.2pts
0.4pts
Avg Margin
-11.8pts
1801.4m
Run Metres
1513.4m
5.2
Line Breaks
4.6
360.4
Tackles
375.6
9.8
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Eagles
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Eagles
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eagles
4
Halves Control9.0%
Eagles
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Eagles
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Eagles
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Eagles

Model Confidence

73%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.5

3/3 match predictions correct
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