Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 69% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 14 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 50% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
69%
Wests Tigers
31%
AI Match Overview
Roosters are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Roosters ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 267-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1299). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Roosters by 7.6 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.20
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.1%
Line / Spread
Roosters -12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.1%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Wests Tigers | L L L L L | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
16.4
Roosters
23.2
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
11.6
Roosters
-8.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1728
Roosters
1749
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.6
Roosters
4.4
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 14-point edge: 8W–8L (50%) vs Wests Tigers's 9W–16L (36%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Roosters's -0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Roosters predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +7.6
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