# Roosters v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 28 – 30 Wests Tigers

_Wests Tigers hold off a fast-finishing Roosters._

Half time: 10 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 69% / Wests Tigers 31% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 06 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Daniel Tupou (35' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (39' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Savala (56'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (74' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (80' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Charlie Staines (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Latu Fainu (24'), Sione Fainu (30'), Samuela Fainu (43')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 69% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 28–30 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 18 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model liked Roosters by 7.6 and gave them a 69% chance of winning. Wests Tigers won anyway, 30-28, and the model's own ledger will tell you it's now 5 from 16 on this fixture. The margin call wasn't far off, 2 points against a predicted 7.6. The winner was.

The gap in the ratings was mostly about the spine. Roosters carried a 1192 to 600 edge at hooker and 1370 to 1260 in the halves, the kind of numbers that usually translate into control. It didn't happen that way early. Charlie Staines opened the scoring in the 9th minute, Latu Fainu made it 12-0 by the 23rd, and Sione Fainu had Wests Tigers out to 18-0 by the 29th. Three tries inside half an hour, none of them from the side the ratings favoured.

Roosters clawed back through Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase either side of the half-hour mark, but Samuela Fainu restored an 18-point buffer just before the break, and Wests Tigers went to the sheds up 20-10. That's a lot of ground to make up against a side with 3 wins from its last 5 and an average winning margin of 11.6.

Roosters did make it interesting. Hugo Savala crossed in the 55th, Nawaqanitawase grabbed his second in the 74th, and James Tedesco got one back in the 79th to bring it to 26-30. Four tries in the second half wasn't enough to find the extra 4 points, but it did make good on the attacking numbers: Roosters finished with 6 line breaks to 4 and 33 tackle breaks to 26, clean evidence the higher-rated backline (1022 to 869) did its job in space.

Where the read broke was discipline and territory. Wests Tigers were the tidier side, just 7 errors against 12, completing at 83% to 81%, and conceding only 4 penalties to 6. They also won the boot battle by a wide margin, 571 kick metres to 473, which kept Roosters pinned down for long stretches. None of that shows up in a forward pack rating that was almost dead even, 1039 to 1037, but it mattered plenty on the day.

The other number worth sitting with is the tackling. Roosters missed 26, Wests Tigers missed 33, yet it was Wests Tigers who held on. Sometimes defensive workrate on paper doesn't line up with who's still ahead on the board, and this was one of those days. Wests Tigers came in having lost all 5 of their last 5, conceding an average of 23.2 points a game. They gave up 28 here too, just not quite enough of them, and not late enough to matter.

For a model built to expect the higher-rated side to win most of the time, this is the sort of result that keeps the ledger honest. Wests Tigers took their form line and threw most of it out, Roosters took theirs and still came up 2 points short. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Wests Tigers | 20 | 10 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 81% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,691 | Run metres | **1,706** |
| **580** | Post-contact metres | 574 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **33** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| 4 | Offloads | **10** |
| **89.5%** | Effective tackle % | 89.4% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 33 |
| 12 | Errors | **7** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 473 | Kick metres | **571** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 69% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 14 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 50% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Charlie Staines (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 23' Try — Latu Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Sione Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 0-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 34' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 4-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 38' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 8-20 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 43' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 10-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 55' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 14-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 74' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 20-28 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 79' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 26-30 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.20 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 69.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 8 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 69% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 267 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1299. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Roosters by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 47. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Wests Tigers took the most recent meeting 25-24 in 2026 Round 25.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Roosters 6th against Wests Tigers 14th.

Roosters come in fresher, 13 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Wests Tigers 25-24 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 6th · Wests Tigers 14th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Rest gap | Roosters 13d · Wests Tigers 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8W–8L | 50% |
| Wests Tigers | 10W–18L | 36% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Roosters hold a 14-point edge: 8W–8L (50%) vs Wests Tigers's 10W–18L (36%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Roosters's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | -8.0pts |
| 1727.6m | Run Metres | 1749.4m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 375.8 | Tackles | 367.2 |
| 13.4 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 28.0 |
| Wests Tigers | 0W–5L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Roosters | 24 – 25 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R17 | Roosters | 40 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R26 | Roosters | 32 – 8 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R23 | Roosters | 72 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2021 | R2 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 40 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.2 conceded/game). Key man: Tedesco, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 14th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Pole, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th) | 1.13/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 12 | 6 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 184m/g | 241m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 82.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 34 | 34 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 736m/g | 684m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.6% | 77.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 7 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 522m/g | 517m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.43) +44% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 24/44g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 21/15g | 65/94g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 4 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | 11 in 13g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 5/6g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 74' |
| 5 | Tom Rodwell | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 17% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Makahesi Makatoa | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Egan Butcher | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Blake Steep | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Max McCathie | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Taylor Losalu | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | De La Salle Va'a | INT | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunia Turuva | FB | 10 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/2g | 42% | — | — |
| 2 | Charlie Staines | WG | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Luke Laulilii | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/9g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $10.50 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Doueihi | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tristan Hope | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 30' 43' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Charlie Murray | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.25 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 30' 43' |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1566 · Wests Tigers 1299 · ELO difference: 267 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1039 (best 1273) | 1037 (best 1273) | Roosters +2 |
| Backs | 1022 (best 1142) | 869 (best 983) | Roosters +153 |
| Halves | 1370 (best 1370) | 1260 (best 1260) | Roosters +110 |
| Hooker | 1192 | 600 | Roosters +592 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Roosters predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)