Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Raiders's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Raiders have a 46% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
68%
Dragons
32%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 243-point ELO rating advantage (1647 vs 1404). Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Raiders by 7.0 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.3%
Line / Spread
Raiders -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.3%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W W | 23.2 |
Dragons | W W W L L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
15.2
Raiders
27.6
Dragons
Avg Margin
8.0
Raiders
-6.0
Dragons
Run Metres
1744
Raiders
1596
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.4
Raiders
3.8
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Raiders hold a 14-point edge: 19W–22L (46%) vs Dragons's 11W–23L (32%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Raiders's +0.7. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Raiders predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.0
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