# Raiders v Dragons — NRL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 28 – 24 Dragons

_Raiders hold off a fast-finishing Dragons._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 68% / Dragons 32% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 05 July, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Xavier Savage (19' 1st Tipped 🎯), Kaeo Weekes (38'), Kaeo Weekes (43'), Morgan Smithies (48'), Kaeo Weekes (60') · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (32' Tipped ⚡), Jaydn Su'A (58'), Tyrell Sloan (66' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Flanagan (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 68% | Won |
| Dragons | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 28–24 Dragons in NRL Round 18 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders led 12-6 at the break, and by the time the hour mark rolled around it looked like a procession. Kaeo Weekes crossed for his second and third tries either side of half-time, either side of Morgan Smithies getting in on it too, and suddenly Canberra were up 28-12 with twenty minutes left. Then the Dragons decided to make a match of it.

St George Illawarra scored three of the last four tries in the game. Tyrell Sloan got his second in the 65th, Kyle Flanagan crashed over in the 72nd, and all of a sudden a 16-point margin was down to 4. David Klemmer copping a sin bin in the 79th summed up the Dragons' night: still fighting, still short.

Final score Raiders 28, Dragons 24. Close enough at the death to worry anyone who'd switched off after the hour, not close enough to actually change the result.

The stat sheet explains why Canberra never quite let it slip. They completed at 84% against the Dragons' 67%, and they only coughed the ball up 9 times to St George Illawarra's 14. When one side is that much more accurate with it and the other is bleeding possession through errors, the team in front usually stays in front. Raiders also had 53% of the ball, ran for 1,955 metres to 1,631, and cracked 6 line breaks to the Dragons' 3.

Where it really told was in contact. Raiders busted 27 tackles to the Dragons' 18 and ground out 593 post-contact metres. St George Illawarra's defence missed 27 tackles for the match, which lines up neatly with Kaeo Weekes crossing three times and Xavier Savage adding a fourth for Canberra. Weekes was the biggest individual number on the sheet, a hat-trick that did most of the heavy lifting on the scoreboard.

The Dragons weren't hopeless. Their effective tackle percentage, 90.4%, wasn't far off Canberra's 92.2%, and late tries to Sloan, Su'A and Flanagan showed they could still find gaps when it mattered. But 14 errors against a side completing at 84% was always going to be hard to overcome, and it was the difference between a competitive scoreline and an actual result.

Going in, the ratings had Canberra as clear favourites, 1647 to 1404, with the halves matchup (1260 to 1212) and a much stronger backline rating (1041 to 863) pointing to exactly the kind of backfield damage Weekes ended up doing. The Dragons' forward pack was rated the stronger unit, 1079 to 1070, and for stretches that showed too, just not enough to close the gap.

Alphr's model had Raiders by 7 on a combined total of 42. The actual margin was 4, on a total of 52, so the model called the winner and was in the right region on the spread without nailing how much the Dragons would claw back late. Raiders covering the 10.5-point line was never really in doubt until that final quarter got interesting. Form-wise, Canberra came in averaging a healthy plus-8 margin over their last five, the Dragons at minus-6, and on this occasion the ledger held, just not by the distance either side probably expected at the break.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| Dragons | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,955** | Run metres | 1,631 |
| **593** | Post-contact metres | 505 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **27** | Tackle breaks | 18 |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| **92.2%** | Effective tackle % | 90.4% |
| **18** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| **9** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **666** | Kick metres | 650 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 10.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Raiders's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Raiders have a 49% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 19' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 37' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 42' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Morgan Smithies (Raiders) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 57' Try — Jaydn Su'A (Dragons) — 24-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 60' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 65' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 28-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — David Klemmer (Dragons) — 28-22 · win-prob swing +6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.35 (edge -12.3%) — model probability 68.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 7 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 68% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 243 ELO points clear, 1647 to 1404. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Dragons.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 17.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 1st against Dragons 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 7 · Dragons 3 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-16 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 1st · Dragons 11th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 21W–22L | 49% |
| Dragons | 11W–24L | 31% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Raiders have won 21 of 43 games (49%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 35 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1744.2m | Run Metres | 1595.6m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 358.0 | Tackles | 370.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 23.2 |
| Dragons | 3W–2L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Raiders | 24 – 16 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R22 | Dragons | 18 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R27 | Dragons | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R19 | Dragons | 26 – 36 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R7 | Raiders | 20 – 14 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.81 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (1.93 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Allan, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.69/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.21/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.81/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.64/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.93/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.19/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.64/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 165m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 36 | 33 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 677m/g | 738m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.6/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 80.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 11 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 597m/g | 468m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.27) +56% · 2nd Rows 0.65/g (lg 0.45) +44% · Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.43) +30%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.67) +37% · Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 6/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 38' 43' 60' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 16/44g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 16g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 19/46g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/26g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/16g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/39g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 5/51g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/13g | 10/88g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Simi Sasagi | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/17g | 0% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Noah Martin | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Trey Mooney | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/26g | 4% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/8g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sione Finau | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Allan | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 66' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/35g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Michael Molo | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1647 · Dragons 1404 · ELO difference: 243 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1070 (best 1335) | 1079 (best 1235) | Dragons +8 |
| Backs | 1041 (best 1144) | 863 (best 986) | Raiders +178 |
| Halves | 1260 (best 1260) | 1212 (best 1212) | Raiders +47 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1200 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Raiders predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)