Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 46, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Storm's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Storm have a 100% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
43%
Storm
57%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Storm carry a 276-point ELO rating advantage (1689 vs 1413). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Storm by 1.3 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.28
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Storm +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.0%
Total Points
Over 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W L L L | 17.6 |
Storm | W W W W L | 29.4 |
Avg Conceded
38.0
Cowboys
18.2
Storm
Avg Margin
-20.4
Cowboys
11.2
Storm
Run Metres
1603
Cowboys
1769
Storm
Line Breaks
4.8
Cowboys
3.6
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Storm have won 4 of 4 games (100%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 11 (27%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Storm).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Storm get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Storm predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -1.3
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