AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Storm's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Storm have a 100% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 46 — within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
43%
Storm
57%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Storm carry a 276-point ELO rating advantage (1689 vs 1413). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Storm by 1.3 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.28
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Storm +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.0%
Total Points
Over 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WWLLL | 17.6 |
Storm | WWWWL | 29.4 |
Avg Conceded
38.0
Cowboys
18.2
Storm
Avg Margin
-20.4
Cowboys
11.2
Storm
Run Metres
1603
Cowboys
1769
Storm
Line Breaks
4.8
Cowboys
3.6
Storm
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Storm have won 3 of 3 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 9 (33%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.3 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Storm — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Storm predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -1.3
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