# Cowboys v Storm — NRL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 20 – 26 Storm

_Storm blow away Cowboys in a tight one._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 43% / Storm 57% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 05 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Robert Derby (16' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (36'), Scott Drinkwater (50' Tipped ⚡) · Storm: Eliesa Katoa (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Nelson Asofa-Solomona (29'), Nick Meaney (55' Tipped ⚡), Nick Meaney (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 57% | Won |
| Cowboys | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 20–26 Storm in NRL Round 18 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Cowboys finished with six line breaks to the Storm's five, and on paper that should have been enough to win them a tight one. Robert Derby, Jaxon Purdue and Scott Drinkwater all crossed for tries, and for a stretch in the second half the home side led the game outright. The problem was everything that happened around those line breaks.

Fourteen errors against Storm's ten told part of the story. Thirty six missed tackles against 25 told the rest. Against a side completing at 79% to the Cowboys' 74%, that gap in discipline was always going to cost something, and it did. Storm also had the edge in tackle breaks, 36 to 25, and post-contact metres, 682 to 515, meaning even when the Cowboys got their line speed right, Storm kept finding a way through it or over it.

Storm won 26-20 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in a match that needed the full eighty minutes to separate. It was locked at 12-12 at half-time, and the lead had already changed hands twice by then. Eliesa Katoa opened the scoring for Storm in the eighth minute. Derby hit back for the Cowboys at the 16 minute mark to make it 4-6. Nelson Asofa-Solomona restored Storm's lead in the 28th minute, 6-10, before Purdue got the Cowboys back within two at the 36 minute mark, 10-12, with the scores levelling out to 12-12 by the break.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| Storm | 12 | 14 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 74% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,805 | Run metres | **1,971** |
| 515 | Post-contact metres | **682** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 11 | Offloads | **12** |
| 86.0% | Effective tackle % | **89.1%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 676 | Kick metres | **745** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 46, within 4 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Storm covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Storm's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Storm have a 100% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Robert Derby (Cowboys) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 28' Try — Nelson Asofa-Solomona (Storm) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 36' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 50' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 55' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 64' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 18-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.28 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 57.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 1 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 57%, but Cowboys stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 276 ELO points clear, 1689 to 1413. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Storm by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2026 Round 4.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Cowboys 3, Storm 3.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 12th against Storm 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 28-24 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 12th · Storm 3rd |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Storm 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 3W–8L | 27% |
| Storm | 4W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Storm have won 4 of 4 games (100%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 11 (27%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Storm).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Storm get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 38.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.2pts |
| -20.4pts | Avg Margin | 11.2pts |
| 1603.2m | Run Metres | 1769.4m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 353.8 | Tackles | 324.4 |
| 13.8 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 17.6 |
| Storm | 4W–1L | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Cowboys | 28 – 24 | Storm |
| 2025 | R14 | Storm | 38 – 14 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R26 | Cowboys | 38 – 30 | Storm |
| 2023 | R14 | Cowboys | 45 – 20 | Storm |
| 2022 | R11 | Cowboys | 36 – 6 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 11th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Derby, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.71 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 13th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Hughes, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.07/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.87/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2.71/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 11 | 12 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 212m/g | 236m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 43 | 45 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 741m/g | 694m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 79% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 18 | 14 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 449m/g | 552m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 91.5% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.65/g (lg 0.67) -3% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.1) -30%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 18/63g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/6g | 46% | 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 36% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 25% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/25g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/61g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Harrison Edwards | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/44g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Sam McIntyre | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Temple Kalepo | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kaiden Lahrs | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 6/48g | 4% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grant Anderson | CE | 10 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Joe Chan | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 65' |
| 5 | Kane Bradley | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tyran Wishart | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 2/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Tui Kamikamica | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| 13 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 14 | Jonah Pezet | INT | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1413 · Storm 1689 · ELO difference: 276 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1047 (best 1191) | 962 (best 1259) | Cowboys +84 |
| Backs | 917 (best 1129) | 872 (best 979) | Cowboys +45 |
| Halves | 953 (best 953) | 1239 (best 1239) | Storm +285 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 980 | Cowboys +220 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Storm predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)