# Bulldogs v Broncos — NRL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 18 – 22 Broncos

_Broncos roar back to stampede past Bulldogs from 16 down._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 68% / Broncos 32% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 04 July, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Marcelo Montoya (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Matt Burton (20'), Viliame Kikau (32' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Josiah Karapani (60' Tipped ⚡), Delouise Hoeter (66'), Billy Walters (71'), Brendan Piakura (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 68% | Lost |
| Broncos | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.1 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 18–22 Broncos in NRL Round 18 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen-nil at the break, and it looked like a formality. Bulldogs had run through three tries inside 32 minutes, Marcelo Montoya opening it up in the 13th, Matt Burton adding one at 20, Viliame Kikau finishing off a third at 32. Accor Stadium had every reason to think this one was done and dusted at half-time.

It wasn't. Broncos scored four unanswered tries after the break, starting with Josiah Karapani at the 60th minute and running through Delouise Hoeter, Billy Walters and Brendan Piakura by the 73rd. Eighteen points conceded in thirteen minutes will do that to a lead. Final score: Broncos 22, Bulldogs 18, and a scoreline that reads nothing like the one sitting on the board at the break.

The stat sheet explains some of it, and contradicts the rest. Bulldogs held more of the ball, 53% to 47%, and were the tidier side with it, 13 errors to 15. But tidy with the ball and dangerous with it aren't the same thing. Broncos broke the line six times to two, busted 31 tackles to 23, and even out-completed nobody, both sides sat on 72%, yet Broncos made every metre count more. Bulldogs actually ran for more, 1,516 to 1,470, but volume without breaks is just traffic.

Defence is where this one really turned. Broncos tackled at 90.9% effective to Bulldogs's 88.2%, and Bulldogs missed 31 tackles to Broncos's 23. That gap, eight more missed tackles, lines up almost exactly with a four-try second half. Bulldogs's hooker rating going in was the standout number on paper, 1200 to 1046, and their forward pack and backline both graded stronger too. None of it mattered once the edges started leaking.

Broncos's halves were rated the strongest positional edge in the match, 1205 to 1090, and it showed when it counted, in the shape and timing of four second-half tries rather than raw territory. Form lines back it up: Broncos came in averaging 27.2 points and 7 line breaks a game across their last five, both well clear of Bulldogs's 18.4 and 3.8. This was the form Broncos actually had, arriving late.

Bulldogs's form read was rougher going in, an average margin of minus 2 across the last five, and for 32 minutes they looked nothing like that team. For the other 48, they looked exactly like it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16 | 2 | 18 |
| Broncos | 0 | 22 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 72% | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,516** | Run metres | 1,470 |
| 481 | Post-contact metres | **483** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 23 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| **9** | Offloads | 8 |
| 88.2% | Effective tackle % | **90.9%** |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **23** |
| **13** | Errors | 15 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **598** | Kick metres | 561 |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Broncos trailed 16–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–22. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 7 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 20' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 60' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 65' Try — Delouise Hoeter (Broncos) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 18-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 73' Try — Brendan Piakura (Broncos) — 18-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.55 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 68.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 68% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 76 ELO points clear, 1569 to 1494.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 8.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Broncos have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Broncos took the most recent meeting 34-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 2nd against Broncos 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 1 · Broncos 9 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 34-20 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 2nd · Broncos 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 6W–5L | 55% |
| Broncos | 10W–7L | 59% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Bulldogs 6W–5L (55%) and Broncos 10W–7L (59%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Broncos get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 1766.8m | Run Metres | 1661.4m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 7.0 |
| 360.2 | Tackles | 345.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 18.4 |
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Bulldogs | 20 – 34 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R8 | Broncos | 32 – 12 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R8 | Broncos | 42 – 18 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R21 | Broncos | 16 – 41 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R20 | Bulldogs | 24 – 44 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 14th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.73 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Gosiewski, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) | 1.73/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.53/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.53/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.07/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 13 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 175m/g | 114m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 26 | 45 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 802m/g | 666m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 6 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 463m/g | 595m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 91.5% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.67) +4%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.45) +16% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · Centres 0.76/g (lg 0.67) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/5g | 3/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | Replacement | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/11g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/17g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 6/11g | 12/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 12/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Harry Hayes | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 9% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/42g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 5% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/25g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 5/18g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/23g | 6% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selwyn Cobbo | FB | 5 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 5 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 2/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/25g | 12/62g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Willison | PR | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 15 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyson Smoothy | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/9g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1569 · Broncos 1494 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1004 (best 1261) | 922 (best 1199) | Bulldogs +82 |
| Backs | 1091 (best 1220) | 1011 (best 1089) | Bulldogs +80 |
| Halves | 1090 (best 1090) | 1205 (best 1205) | Broncos +115 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1046 | Bulldogs +154 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)