Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Broncos trailed 16–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 6 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
68%
Broncos
32%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Broncos. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1494). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 8.1 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.55
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.0%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.0%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 18.4 |
Broncos | W W W L L | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Bulldogs
23.6
Broncos
Avg Margin
-2.0
Bulldogs
3.6
Broncos
Run Metres
1767
Bulldogs
1661
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.8
Bulldogs
7.0
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Broncos have won 9 of 15 games (60%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 4 from 9 (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Broncos get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.1
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