Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 0.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 54, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 4 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Cowboys's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Cowboys have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Cowboys prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
38%
Cowboys
62%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 38%. Titans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Cowboys counter with ELO Difference and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Cowboys carry a 85-point ELO rating advantage (1394 vs 1310).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.5%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.5%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W L L L L | 20.4 |
Cowboys | W L L L L | 12.8 |
Avg Conceded
31.2
Titans
38.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-10.8
Titans
-25.2
Cowboys
Run Metres
1690
Titans
1661
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.0
Titans
4.2
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Cowboys have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 7 (29%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Cowboys).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Titans get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Cowboys's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -0.8
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.