# Titans v Cowboys — NRL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 24 – 30 Cowboys

_Cowboys wrangle a gallant Titans._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 38% / Cowboys 62% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 29 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Beau Fermor (28'), AJ Brimson (55' Tipped ⚡), Jojo Fifita (64' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (76' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Zac Laybutt (7' 1st), Murray Taulagi (18' Tipped ⚡), Scott Drinkwater (46'), Jeremiah Nanai (50' Tipped ⚡), Scott Drinkwater (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 62% | Won |
| Titans | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 24–30 Cowboys in NRL Round 17 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different ways to play a footy match, and only one of them ended with the two points. Titans had the ball more, handled it better and ran it harder. Cowboys just kept finding the line. Final score at Cbus Super Stadium: Cowboys 30, Titans 24.

The Cowboys took the ambition route early and it paid off. Zac Laybutt opened the scoring in the 7th minute, Murray Taulagi added a second in the 17th, and by half-time the visitors led 12-6. Titans clawed one back through Beau Fermor in the 28th, but the pattern was set: North Queensland striking through gaps, Gold Coast doing the donkey work in between.

The donkey work numbers back that up. Titans finished with 53% of possession, completed at 80% to the Cowboys' 76%, and coughed up the ball just 10 times against 15 Cowboys errors. They ran for 1,459 metres to 1,322, made 494 post-contact metres, busted 29 tackles to 20 and offloaded a dozen times to the Cowboys' six. By any conventional read of a footy stat sheet, that's the profile of the winning side. It wasn't.

Because for all that control, the Titans couldn't stop the moments that mattered. Cowboys broke the line five times to four, and made every one count. Scott Drinkwater scored either side of the hour, in the 45th and again in the 71st, either side of a Jeremiah Nanai try in the 49th that stretched the margin to 6-22. That's three tries in twelve minutes of game time from a side that had less of the ball and made more mistakes. Effective ambition beats effective control when the ambition keeps landing.

The Titans didn't fold. Brimson crossed in the 54th, Jojo Fifita followed in the 64th to bring it back to 16-24, and Phillip Sami's try in the 75th made it 22-30 with time still on the clock. It just wasn't quite enough ground to make up, and the Cowboys' extra try, four to the Titans' four but arriving at better moments, meant that late pressure never quite turned into the lead.

The Cowboys' forward pack and halves went in rated below the Titans on paper, 1010 to 1087 up front and 946 to 1171 in the halves, and the missed tackle count, 29 to 20, shows a defence that leaked more than it should have. But recent form told a truer story about where this one might land: the Titans had been losing by an average of 10.8 points across their last five, the Cowboys by 25.2. Neither side had been winning much, but the Cowboys had been closer to it when they didn't.

Alphr's model had the Cowboys favourites at 62% and picked the margin at 0.8 points, in from a combined total of 50. Reality landed at a 6-point Cowboys win and a 54-point total, both close enough to call it a solid read. Cowboys covered the line too. Ball in hand doesn't win you the game. Ball over the line does, and on this night the Cowboys found it more often when it counted.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 18 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,459** | Run metres | 1,322 |
| **494** | Post-contact metres | 397 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **29** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| **12** | Offloads | 6 |
| **91.5%** | Effective tackle % | 88.7% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 29 |
| **10** | Errors | 15 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **601** | Kick metres | 592 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 0.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 54, within 4 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Cowboys covered the 3.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 4 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Cowboys's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Cowboys have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Cowboys prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Zac Laybutt (Cowboys) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 17' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 28' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 49' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 54' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 10-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 71' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 18-28 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 75' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 22-30 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.65 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 62.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 1 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 62%, but Titans stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cowboys sit 85 ELO points clear, 1394 to 1310.

On paper Titans shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Cowboys, which says ELO Difference and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 30-8 in 2026 Round 23.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 17th against Cowboys 12th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 2 · Cowboys 8 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 30-8 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 17th · Cowboys 12th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Cowboys | 3W–3L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Cowboys have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 9 (22%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Cowboys).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 38.0pts |
| -10.8pts | Avg Margin | -25.2pts |
| 1689.6m | Run Metres | 1661.2m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 349.0 | Tackles | 346.2 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 13.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.4 |
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Titans | 8 – 30 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R3 | Cowboys | 30 – 16 | Titans |
| 2025 | R8 | Cowboys | 50 – 18 | Titans |
| 2024 | R10 | Titans | 20 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R5 | Cowboys | 35 – 22 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.93 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Derby, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.21/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.93/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.29/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 10th) | 1.14/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 10 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 219m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 45 | 34 · 40 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 668m/g | 755m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 14.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.9% | 75.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 15 | 7 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 563m/g | 452m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 88.3% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.17) +65% · Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.35/g (lg 0.17) +106% · Fullbacks 0.69/g (lg 0.43) +60% · 2nd Rows 0.68/g (lg 0.44) +55%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 25/58g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 8/22g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 30/60g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 5 | Allan Fitzgibbon | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 9/30g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Weaver | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/68g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 5/28g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 10/38g | 32% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/33g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | Replacement | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 4/43g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 3% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 46' 71' |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·3·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (1·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 1/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 32% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam McIntyre | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/5g | 2/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | 2R | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 3/8g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1310 · Cowboys 1394 · ELO difference: 85 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1087 (best 1270) | 1010 (best 1242) | Titans +78 |
| Backs | 1002 (best 1094) | 835 (best 928) | Titans +167 |
| Halves | 1171 (best 1171) | 946 (best 946) | Titans +225 |
| Hooker | 944 | 1017 | Cowboys +72 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)