Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 24 points. Storm led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Storm have a 62% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
75%
Sharks
25%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Storm carry a 173-point ELO rating advantage (1669 vs 1496). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Storm by 8.1 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Line / Spread
Storm -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W L | 36.2 |
Sharks | W W L L L | 23.0 |
Avg Conceded
17.0
Storm
32.0
Sharks
Avg Margin
19.2
Storm
-9.0
Sharks
Run Metres
1836
Storm
1678
Sharks
Line Breaks
5.2
Storm
5.6
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours StormAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 40 of 65 games (62%), significantly stronger than Sharks's 25 from 57 (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Storm's -0.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Storm predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +8.1
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