# Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 28 – 10 Wests Tigers

_Sea Eagles soar past Wests Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 72% / Wests Tigers 28% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Fri, 27 June, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Jason Saab (39' 1st Tipped 🎯), Reuben Garrick (43' Tipped ⚡), Tolutau Koula (47' Tipped ⚡), Corey Waddell (60'), Ben Trbojevic (75') · Wests Tigers: Alex Seyfarth (52'), Tallyn Da Silva (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 72% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.0 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 28–10 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 17 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles beat Wests Tigers 28-10 at Brookvale Oval, but the scoreline flatters them more than the stat sheet does. Wests Tigers were actually the tidier side with the ball, coughing up just 8 errors to Sea Eagles' 14 and out-completing them 81% to 80%. They also won the kicking game comfortably, 738 metres to 511. On paper that's a side that should have made a real fist of it. Instead they lost by 18.

It was 6-0 at half-time, Sea Eagles' only points coming from Jason Saab's try in the 39th minute. Then the game tipped. Reuben Garrick crossed three minutes after the break to make it 10-0, and Tolutau Koula followed in the 46th for 14-0. Three tries in seven minutes, either side of half-time, and suddenly the Tigers were chasing a game they hadn't really been in.

To their credit they didn't fold straight away. Alex Seyfarth got them on the board in the 51st minute, 16-4, and for a stretch there the margin looked manageable. Sea Eagles answered again. Corey Waddell stretched it to 20-4 in the 59th, and Ben Trbojevic made it 26-4 in the 75th. Tallyn Da Silva's try in the 77th, making it 28-8 before the final score settled at 28-10, was tidy but had no bearing on the outcome by then.

So how does a side that lost the completion battle, the error count and the kicking metres win by 18? Line breaks are part of the answer. Sea Eagles broke the line five times to three and added 30 tackle breaks to 25, backing that up with 572 post-contact metres to the Tigers' 510. Wests Tigers actually came in rated stronger in the forwards, 1141 to 1042, but that edge never showed up where it mattered: getting the ball past the line and finding the guy in support.

Where Sea Eagles held a real, structural advantage was in the halves and at hooker. A 1301 to 1082 edge in the halves and a lopsided 1164 to 600 gap at hooker gave them the kind of organisation that turns field position into points in clusters, exactly what happened either side of the break. Wests Tigers' better completion rate and territory from the boot meant little when the team receiving the ball kept finding soft shoulders to run through.

Form lines back up the result too, even if not the margin. Sea Eagles arrived with two wins from their last five and an average margin of plus 0.4, nothing to get excited about, but Wests Tigers were sitting on zero wins from five and conceding 30.4 points a game on average. Measured against that recent trend, an 18-point loss was almost a competitive night out for them.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles favourites at 72% and picked them by 13 points, with a combined total of 42. The actual margin was 18 and the total 38, both close enough to call it a good read. Sea Eagles covered the 5.5-point line, and the under on 48.5 total points landed as well. The model finished 7 from 16 on the match, a reminder that even a correctly picked winner can hide a stat sheet that argues the other way.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 6 | 22 | 28 |
| Wests Tigers | 0 | 10 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| **1,705** | Run metres | 1,357 |
| **572** | Post-contact metres | 510 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **30** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| 5 | Offloads | **7** |
| 90.6% | Effective tackle % | **91.3%** |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 30 |
| 14 | Errors | **8** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 511 | Kick metres | **738** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 13.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38, within 4 points. Sea Eagles led 6–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 7/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 5.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 50% win rate under this referee. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 39' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 42' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 46' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 51' Try — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 59' Try — Corey Waddell (Sea Eagles) — 20-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Wests Tigers) — 28-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.54 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 13 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 72% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 100 ELO points clear, 1424 to 1324. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Wests Tigers.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 13.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 46-18 in 2026 Round 11.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 10th against Wests Tigers 14th.

Sea Eagles come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 46-18 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 10th · Wests Tigers 14th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 13d · Wests Tigers 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 24W–24L | 50% |
| Wests Tigers | 11W–28L | 28% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sea Eagles have won 24 of 48 games (50%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 39 (28%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Wests Tigers's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | -17.2pts |
| 1791.8m | Run Metres | 1724.8m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 357.8 | Tackles | 354.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 19.6 |
| Wests Tigers | 0W–5L | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 46 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 26 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 34 – 26 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 54 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 16 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 5th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.07 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 8th there (0.93 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.07/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.93/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 10th) | 1.07/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.36/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.36/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 8th) | 1.07/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 10 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 188m/g | 251m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 82.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 30 | 34 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 746m/g | 696m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.7/g | 14.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 519m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.43) +47% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/13g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 18/31g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 4 | Tom Trbojevic | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 36/55g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Reuben Garrick | WG | 8 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/8g | 37/55g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 15/21g | 39/134g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/29g | 14% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 8/29g | 24% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 17/93g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/32g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Nathan Brown | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 3/35g | 14% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heath Mason | FB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 10 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 6/35g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Bird | 2R | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 15 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 16 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1424 · Wests Tigers 1324 · ELO difference: 100 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1042 (best 1183) | 1141 (best 1290) | Wests Tigers +100 |
| Backs | 1053 (best 1214) | 960 (best 1099) | Sea Eagles +94 |
| Halves | 1301 (best 1301) | 1082 (best 1082) | Sea Eagles +219 |
| Hooker | 1164 | 600 | Sea Eagles +564 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)