Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 13.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38, within 4 points. Sea Eagles led 6–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 50% win rate under this referee. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
72%
Wests Tigers
28%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sea Eagles carry a 100-point ELO rating advantage (1424 vs 1324). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 13.0 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.54
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.2%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.2%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 19.6 |
Wests Tigers | L L L L L | 13.2 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sea Eagles
30.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
0.4
Sea Eagles
-17.2
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1792
Sea Eagles
1725
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.6
Sea Eagles
4.0
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sea Eagles have won 23 of 46 games (50%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 39 (28%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +13.0
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