Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 53% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 0.5 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Raiders bucked the trend, Knights historically win 60% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
47%
Raiders
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Raiders a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Raiders carry a 226-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1411). Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Knights.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.34
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.6%
Line / Spread
Raiders +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.6%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W W L L | 18.2 |
Raiders | W W W W W | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
16.0
Knights
16.4
Raiders
Avg Margin
2.2
Knights
10.4
Raiders
Run Metres
1830
Knights
1749
Raiders
Line Breaks
4.6
Knights
5.2
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Knights hold a 10-point edge: 15W–10L (60%) vs Raiders's 9W–9L (50%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Raiders get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Knights's +0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Raiders predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -0.5
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