# Knights v Raiders — NRL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 18 – 22 Raiders

_Raiders hold off a fast-finishing Knights._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 47% / Raiders 53% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Fri, 27 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: James Schiller (50'), Jermaine McEwen (65'), James Schiller (75') · Raiders: Simi Sasagi (15' 1st), Kaeo Weekes (24'), Ethan Strange (28' Tipped ⚡), Jed Stuart (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 53% | Won |
| Knights | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 18–22 Raiders in NRL Round 17 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Knights did plenty right at McDonald Jones Stadium and still lost. Cleaner with the ball, sharper through the line, and it counted for nothing on the scoreboard by full time.

Start with the good. Knights completed at 80%, coughed up the ball just 10 times to 11, and broke the line five times to the Raiders' four. On another day that's the winning hand. They even shaded the kick metres, 747 to 711. None of it stopped Canberra walking out 22-18 winners.

The problem was everything that happens after the ball's in hand. Raiders busted 39 tackle breaks to 31 and offloaded 14 times to Newcastle's six, keeping the footy alive through contact in a way the Knights simply couldn't match. Post-contact metres told the same story, 644 to 605 in the visitors' favour. Add an effective tackle rate of 90.6% against Newcastle's 86.5%, and a gap of 39 missed tackles to 31, and you've got a Knights defence that leaked when it mattered.

It showed early. Canberra scored through Simi Sasagi in the 15th minute, Kaeo Weekes in the 23rd and Ethan Strange in the 27th, and went to the break up 16-0. Three tries in twelve minutes, and Newcastle spent the rest of the night chasing it down.

They did chase it, credit where it's due. James Schiller crossed in the 49th to get the Knights off the mark, Jed Stuart replied for the Raiders in the 57th, then Jermaine McEwen scored in the 64th to drag it back to 10-22. Schiller's second try in the 74th made it 16-22 and turned the last stretch into a genuine sweat for Canberra, but the hole dug before half-time was too deep to climb all the way out of.

The ratings had this pegged as tight, and it was. Raiders went in rated 1637 to the Knights' 1411, with the model giving them a 53% chance and picking them by half a point. They won it by four. Look at the positional numbers and the shape of the game makes a bit more sense: Canberra held a big edge at hooker, 1200 to 1093, and a side that strong through dummy half is going to offload more and bust more tackles, which is exactly what happened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| Raiders | 16 | 6 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,947 | Run metres | **1,963** |
| 605 | Post-contact metres | **644** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| 6 | Offloads | **14** |
| 86.5% | Effective tackle % | **90.6%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| **747** | Kick metres | 711 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 53% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 0.5 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 9.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Raiders bucked the trend, Knights historically win 62% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 49' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 57' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 64' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 74' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 16-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.34 (edge -14.6%) — model probability 52.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Knights and Raiders. The model can't split them, landing on Raiders at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 226 ELO points clear, 1637 to 1411. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 30-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 13th against Raiders 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 6 · Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Knights 30-24 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 13th · Raiders 2nd |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 16W–10L | 62% |
| Raiders | 9W–9L | 50% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Knights hold a 12-point edge: 16W–10L (62%) vs Raiders's 9W–9L (50%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Raiders get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Knights's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 1830.2m | Run Metres | 1748.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 393.4 | Tackles | 348.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–2L | 18.2 |
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Raiders | 24 – 30 | Knights |
| 2026 | R5 | Knights | 32 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R21 | Raiders | 44 – 18 | Knights |
| 2024 | R18 | Raiders | 12 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R1 | Knights | 12 – 28 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.87 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.87/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.73/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.07/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 11th) | 1.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.2/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 8 | 11 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 22 | 32 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 807m/g | 664m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.1/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.5% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 25 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 589m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 92% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.17) +65% · Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.67) +40% · Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 31/58g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 24/25g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/26g | 25/103g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 4/8g | 19/40g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | James Schiller | WG | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/8g | 29% | — | 🏉 50' 75' |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 4/73g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 3/37g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 10/49g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/24g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 7% | — | — |
| 13 | Phoenix Crossland | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/49g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Brodie Jones | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 3/42g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 17 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/38g | 6% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 8/23g | 3/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/14g | 1/13g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Simi Sasagi | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 12% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Noah Martin | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1411 · Raiders 1637 · ELO difference: 226 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1111 (best 1277) | 1070 (best 1274) | Knights +41 |
| Backs | 1115 (best 1169) | 878 (best 992) | Knights +237 |
| Halves | 1297 (best 1297) | 1162 (best 1162) | Knights +135 |
| Hooker | 1093 | 1200 | Raiders +107 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Raiders favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)