AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 9 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
63%
Eels
37%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 37%. Eels are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Dragons counter with Halves Control and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Eels carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1404 vs 1371). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Dragons by 4.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.4%
Line / Spread
Dragons -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WWLLL | 17.6 |
Eels | WWWLL | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
26.6
Dragons
16.8
Eels
Avg Margin
-9.0
Dragons
6.4
Eels
Run Metres
1605
Dragons
1741
Eels
Line Breaks
3.8
Dragons
5.2
Eels
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Liam Kennedy officiates — Dragons 7W–3L (70%) and Eels 6W–3L (67%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 45.1 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.1 pts
Home Win %
51%
Home Bias
Neutral
ELO–Market Disagreement
Eels hold the ELO advantage (1404 vs 1371), but the market favours Dragons (@1.63).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Dragons predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +4.0
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.