Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 7 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Dragons's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Dragons have a 73% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
63%
Eels
37%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 37%. Eels are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Dragons counter with Halves Control and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Eels carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1404 vs 1371). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Dragons by 4.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.4%
Line / Spread
Dragons -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W W L L L | 17.6 |
Eels | W W W L L | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
26.6
Dragons
16.8
Eels
Avg Margin
-9.0
Dragons
6.4
Eels
Run Metres
1605
Dragons
1741
Eels
Line Breaks
3.8
Dragons
5.2
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours DragonsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
Dragons hold a 6-point edge: 8W–3L (73%) vs Eels's 8W–4L (67%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Eels get a +1.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dragons's -0.1.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Eels hold the ELO advantage (1404 vs 1371), but the market favours Dragons (@1.63).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Dragons predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +4.0
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