# Dragons v Eels — NRL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 34 – 20 Eels

_Dragons breathe fire on Eels._

Half time: 26 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 63% / Eels 37% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 28 June, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Nathan Lawson (2' 1st), Nathan Lawson (13' 1st), Corey Allan (27'), Kyle Flanagan (29'), Valentine Holmes (34' Tipped ⚡), Valentine Holmes (76' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (23' Tipped ⚡), Zac Lomax (46' Tipped ⚡), Dean Hawkins (54'), Kelma Tuilagi (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 63% | Won |
| Eels | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 34–20 Eels in NRL Round 17 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-nine minutes in, this one was already decided. Nathan Lawson had scored twice inside the opening quarter, Corey Allan and Kyle Flanagan piled on either side of the half-hour mark, and by the 33rd minute Valentine Holmes had crossed to make it 24-4. Four Dragons tries in eleven minutes, from the 22nd to the 33rd, turned a contest into a rout before the Eels had worked out what hit them.

Final score: Dragons 34, Eels 20. At the break it was 26-4, and everything that followed was the Eels trying to climb out of a hole that deep in a stadium that wasn't theirs.

To their credit, they did climb. Josh Addo-Carr had already got one back before halftime, and after the break Zac Lomax, Dean Hawkins and Kelma Tuilagi all crossed in a stretch between the 45th and 56th minute that cut the margin to eight. Valentine Holmes's second try in the 75th put it back out to 14 and closed the door for good.

The stat sheet reads like a team that dominated the ball but not the moments that mattered. Eels had 53% possession, more run metres (1,731 to 1,665), more line breaks (6 to 5) and more tackle breaks (36 to 30). By most conventional measures they were the better side with the ball in hand. None of it showed up on the scoreboard until it was too late.

What did show up was completion and defence. Dragons finished at 82% to the Eels's 85%, close enough, but it was the tackling that told the story of the first half: Dragons missed 36 tackles for the game against the Eels's 30, and effective tackle percentage went 88.4% to 84.4% in the Eels's favour. Somehow the leakier defensive side still walked away with 34 points, because six of the Eels's line breaks and 14 offloads to 10 came too late to matter.

Form lines said this should have gone the other way. The Eels arrived on three wins from five, averaging 23.2 points scored and just 16.8 conceded, with a positive margin of 6.4. Dragons had won two of five, shipping 26.6 a game on average. The ratings had Eels forwards, backs and even the overall combined figure ahead across the board, 1157 to 1085 up front and a big gap out back at 1013 to 816. On paper this was a tighter, more even fixture than what actually happened for the first 33 minutes.

Alphr's model had Dragons winning at 63% and tipped them by 4 points on a combined total of 44. The actual margin came in at 14, so the model had the right side of the ledger but undersold just how well Dragons would start. It went 4 from 16 on the finer detail of this one, though Dragons did cover the 2.5-point line comfortably in the end.

Wins and misses, all of it. The scoreboard belonged to Dragons from the first quarter onward, no matter what the rest of the numbers said about who had the ball.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 26 | 8 | 34 |
| Eels | 4 | 16 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 82% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,665 | Run metres | **1,731** |
| **507** | Post-contact metres | 476 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 10 | Offloads | **14** |
| 84.4% | Effective tackle % | **88.4%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| 531 | Kick metres | **565** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 4/16 on this match. Dragons covered the 2.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 7 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Nathan Lawson (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 13' Try — Nathan Lawson (Dragons) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 26' Try — Corey Allan (Dragons) — 14-4 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 29' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 18-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 33' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 24-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 45' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 26-8 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 54' Try — Dean Hawkins (Eels) — 26-12 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 56' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 26-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 30-20 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.63 (edge +3.4%) — model probability 62.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 4 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dragons are the call at 63%, but Eels stay live at 37%. The ratings say otherwise: Eels sit 34 ELO points clear, 1404 to 1371, so the model is backing Dragons against the ratings gap. Form leans Eels' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Dragons.

On paper Eels shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Dragons, which says Halves Control and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Dragons by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2026 Round 27.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Dragons 11th against Eels 15th.

Dragons come in fresher, 15 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Eels 6 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-22 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 11th · Eels 15th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Eels 0% |
| Rest gap | Dragons 15d · Eels 5d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10W–5L | 67% |
| Eels | 9W–5L | 64% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy, Dragons 10W–5L (67%) and Eels 9W–5L (64%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Eels's +0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -9.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.4pts |
| 1604.6m | Run Metres | 1740.6m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 380.6 | Tackles | 365.4 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 17.6 |
| Eels | 3W–2L | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Dragons | 24 – 22 | Eels |
| 2026 | R3 | Eels | 30 – 20 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R5 | Eels | 23 – 22 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R26 | Eels | 44 – 40 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R23 | Eels | 26 – 20 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.64 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.15/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.71/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.64/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.57/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.62/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 10th) | 0.93/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 158m/g | 175m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.5% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 32 | 26 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 737m/g | 753m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 16.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.1% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 6 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 472m/g | 464m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 91% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.67) +37% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.27) +59% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.44) +45% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.43) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Corey Allan | WG | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/22g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 2/4g | 42% | 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 76' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/17g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/20g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Toby Couchman | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 2/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/13g | 2/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/17g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Viliami Fifita | INT | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 6/20g | 6% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 14/26g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/7g | 2/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Joey Lussick | HK | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.75 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/15g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Joash Papalii | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Eels hold the ELO advantage (1404 vs 1371), but the market favours Dragons (@1.63). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1371 · Eels 1404 · ELO difference: 34 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1085 (best 1254) | 1157 (best 1329) | Eels +72 |
| Backs | 816 (best 900) | 1013 (best 1171) | Eels +196 |
| Halves | 1293 (best 1293) | 1187 (best 1187) | Dragons +106 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1142 | Dragons +58 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Dragons predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)