# Dolphins v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 50 – 28 Rabbitohs

_Dolphins ride the wave past Rabbitohs._

Half time: 30 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 62% / Rabbitohs 38% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 28 June, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Jeremy Marshall-King (11'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (19' Tipped ⚡), Kodi Nikorima (28' Tipped ⚡), Jake Averillo (35' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (40' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (49' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (63' Tipped ⚡), Kurt Donoghoe (73') · Rabbitohs: Jack Wighton (3' 1st), Tallis Duncan (53'), Tallis Duncan (55'), Jack Wighton (65' 1st), Davvy Moale (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 62% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 50–28 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 17 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty points against twenty-eight tells you Dolphins won comfortably, but it was a 29-minute stretch either side of the 10-minute mark that actually broke this open. Jack Wighton scored inside three minutes to put Rabbitohs up 4-0, and for a moment it looked like an away banana skin was on the cards. It wasn't. Dolphins hit back through Jeremy Marshall-King at the 10, then ran off four more before the break: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at 19 and again on the stroke of half-time, Kodi Nikorima at 27, Jake Averillo at 34. By the break it was 30-6, and the contest was effectively over before the second half kicked off.

Dolphins didn't so much win the arm wrestle as skip it. They completed at 84% to the Rabbitohs' 72%, coughed the ball up just seven times against fourteen, and turned that discipline with ball in hand into 2,009 running metres and 591 post-contact metres. That's a side playing with the ball far more often than it's defending, which is exactly how you build a 24-point half-time lead.

Rabbitohs actually won a few of the underlying battles, for what it's worth. They had more line breaks, seven to six, more tackle breaks and more offloads, nine to five, and they defended better too, missing fewer tackles and posting an 89.5% effective tackle rate against the Dolphins' 86%. None of it mattered much when the errors column read 14 against 7. Rugby league punishes sloppiness with the ball more than it rewards flashes without it, and Souths paid for that all night.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was the story of the scoreboard, crossing four times, at 19, 39, 48 and 62 minutes, a spread across the whole match rather than one hot patch. Jack Wighton, credit to him, was Souths' best individual threat, opening the scoring and adding a second late to finish with a brace of his own. Tallis Duncan gave Rabbitohs a real ten minutes worth cheering, scoring twice in quick succession at 52 and 54 to drag the margin back to 20, and for a passage there it looked like Souths might make a genuine fist of the comeback.

They didn't get the runway. Dolphins answered Duncan's double with Tabuai-Fidow's fourth at 62, and while Wighton and Davvy Moale kept the scoreboard ticking for Souths late, Kurt Donoghoe's try at 72 put the game back out of reach. Rabbitohs' fight in that final quarter, three tries in twenty minutes, said plenty about their character but nothing about the result.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a Dolphins win but nowhere near this size. Alphr's model gave them 62% and picked a 6.1-point margin off a projected 43-point game. The final margin was 22, and the total blew out to 78. The halves matchup, 1285 to 1083 in the Dolphins' favour, was always the tell, and Souths' form line coming in, an average of 26.6 points conceded across their last five, was hiding in plain sight. Dolphins covered the line and then some. The model called the winner, missed the width of it by a mile, and finished 5 from 16 for the night. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 30 | 20 | 50 |
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 22 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **2,009** | Run metres | 1,651 |
| **591** | Post-contact metres | 507 |
| 6 | Line breaks | **7** |
| **34** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| 5 | Offloads | **9** |
| 86.0% | Effective tackle % | **89.5%** |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| **7** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **599** | Kick metres | 588 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 78 points came in 35 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 5/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 78 points was 31 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 73% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 10' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 19' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 27' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 34' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 39' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 28-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 48' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 34-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 52' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 36-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 54' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 36-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 42-16 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 44-20 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 68' Try — Davvy Moale (Rabbitohs) — 44-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Kurt Donoghoe (Dolphins) — 48-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.56 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 61.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 62%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 204 ELO points clear, 1573 to 1369. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Rabbitohs.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 9th against Rabbitohs 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Dolphins 3 · Rabbitohs 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 32-10 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 9th · Rabbitohs 16th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 11W–4L | 73% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–9L | 36% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 5 from 14 (36%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 38.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.4pts |
| 1912.2m | Run Metres | 1541.6m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 313.0 | Tackles | 379.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 38.0 |
| Rabbitohs | 1W–4L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 10 – 32 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R1 | Dolphins | 30 – 40 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R1 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 14 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R19 | Dolphins | 36 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R7 | Dolphins | 14 – 36 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.47 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (0.87 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 10th) | 0.53/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.07/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 5 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 32 | 31 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 762m/g | 635m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.4% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 502m/g | 502m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.27) +63% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.67) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 11 in 13g | 11/10g (0·1·3·0·1·2·0·1·2·1) | 1/4g | 17/24g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 40' 49' 63' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 3/11g | 30/69g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 8/20g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 10 in 15g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 3/9g | 24/59g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 5/11g | 21/77g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/25g | 8% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 10 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 11% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/22g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 13/15g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 11 in 7g | 15/10g (2·2·0·1·0·1·3·1·1·4) | 3/2g | 16/18g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/10g | 22% | — | 🏉 3' 65' |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 9/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 13/19g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/25g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 53' 55' |
| 13 | Jai Arrow | LK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 8% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1573 · Rabbitohs 1369 · ELO difference: 204 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1086 (best 1225) | 1060 (best 1328) | Dolphins +27 |
| Backs | 1094 (best 1172) | 1026 (best 1137) | Dolphins +67 |
| Halves | 1285 (best 1285) | 1083 (best 1083) | Dolphins +202 |
| Hooker | 943 | 885 | Dolphins +58 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)