# Broncos v Warriors — NRL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 26 – 12 Warriors

_Broncos stampede past Warriors._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 59% / Warriors 41% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 28 June, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (2' 1st), Josiah Karapani (14' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (40' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (76' Tipped ⚡) · Warriors: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (45' Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 59% | Won |
| Warriors | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 26–12 Warriors in NRL Round 17 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two minutes in, Kotoni Staggs was already over, and by half-time Brisbane had put 18 points on the board without the Warriors troubling the scorers once. That's the game, really. Everything after halftime was the Warriors trying to find a way back into a hole they'd dug themselves, and finding out it was too deep.

The damage was done in three hits. Staggs opened it inside two minutes, Josiah Karapani stretched it to 10-0 by the 14th, and Gehamat Shibasaki got the first of his double just before the break to make it 18-0 at halftime. Brisbane didn't need to score again to win this one. They were already gone.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck got the Warriors on the board three minutes after the resumption, and Leka Halasima added a second in the 65th to drag it to 20-12, but Shibasaki's second try in the 75th put the result beyond doubt. Final score 26-12, and the gap between the two halves of that scoreline tells you everything about how this one was actually decided.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Brisbane held 54% of possession and completed at 85% against the Warriors' 74%, the kind of gap that lets one side dictate terms and the other chase the ball all day. Ten errors to 11 isn't a big split, but the completion rate says the Broncos did more with their sets, and it showed in the collision stats: 516 post-contact metres to 390, 36 tackle breaks to 17. Brisbane simply ran harder and further, finishing with 1,552 run metres to the Warriors' 1,351.

Where it really fell apart for the Warriors was defence, which is notable given they came into this one conceding just 19.2 points a game across their last five, the best of the two sides by a distance. They missed 36 tackles here to the Broncos' 17, an effective tackle rate of 89.1% against 90.1%. Not a chasm on paper, but on a night when Brisbane's outside backs were finding space through Shibasaki and Karapani, those extra misses turned into six line breaks and, ultimately, four tries.

The Warriors did have the stronger halves pairing coming in by the ratings, 1283 to 1221, and their forwards weren't far off Brisbane's either. But the hooker gap, 1200 to 939, was the widest positional mismatch on the sheet, and it lines up with a Broncos side that controlled the ruck, kicked for 642 metres to 550, and offloaded less but didn't need the extra ball-in-hand risk that produced 12 offloads for the Warriors against just six.

Brisbane came in having lost three of their last five, averaging a worse-than-even minus 0.8 point margin, while the Warriors had won three of five with a healthy plus 4.8. Form lines said this could go either way. The pre-match model had Brisbane favourites at 59% and predicted a 5.3-point win in a game worth 48 combined points. The winner was right, the shape of the margin wasn't close, 14 points instead of five, and the total landed under at 38. Brisbane covered the line with room to spare, and did most of the damage before the Warriors had touched the ball with any real purpose.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 18 | 8 | 26 |
| Warriors | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **1,552** | Run metres | 1,351 |
| **516** | Post-contact metres | 390 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 17 |
| 6 | Offloads | **12** |
| **90.1%** | Effective tackle % | 89.1% |
| **17** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **642** | Kick metres | 550 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 5.3 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 6/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 5.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Broncos's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 45' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 65' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 20-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 75' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 59.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 59%, but Warriors stay live at 41%. The ratings say otherwise: Warriors sit 113 ELO points clear, 1567 to 1454, so the model is backing Broncos against the ratings gap. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Broncos.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Broncos by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 40-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Broncos 5, Warriors 3.

On the ladder it's Broncos 5th against Warriors 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 4 · Warriors 6 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 5th · Warriors 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 18W–23L | 44% |
| Warriors | 17W–20L | 46% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Broncos 18W–23L (44%) and Warriors 17W–20L (46%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.4. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 1706.4m | Run Metres | 1623.6m |
| 7.6 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 357.2 | Tackles | 374.2 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2W–3L | 24.8 |
| Warriors | 3W–2L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Broncos | 6 – 40 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R11 | Warriors | 42 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R7 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R17 | Warriors | 32 – 16 | Broncos |
| 2023 | PF | Broncos | 42 – 12 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 12th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 9th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Metcalf, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.71/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.14/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 9th) | 1.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.93/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 7 | 15 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 113m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 33 | 24 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 674m/g | 646m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.1/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 8 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 598m/g | 540m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 89.1% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.43) +0% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.67) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 16/30g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 4 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 37/74g | 30% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·2) | 1/5g | 9/15g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 76' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 11 in 14g | 6/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 17/46g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 17/32g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 8/55g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 1/46g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/38g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 8/76g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 13/61g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/62g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 8/48g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/52g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/26g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/13g | 14% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Edward Kosi | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 3/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Rocco Berry | CE | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/11g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 2/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Marata Niukore | PR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 10/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1567 vs 1454), but the market favours Broncos (@1.50). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1454 · Warriors 1567 · ELO difference: 113 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1058 (best 1322) | 1031 (best 1280) | Broncos +27 |
| Backs | 1064 (best 1200) | 994 (best 1066) | Broncos +70 |
| Halves | 1221 (best 1221) | 1283 (best 1283) | Warriors +62 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 939 | Broncos +261 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Broncos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)