Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 5.3 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Broncos's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
59%
Warriors
41%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. Warriors carry a 113-point ELO rating advantage (1567 vs 1454). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Broncos by 5.3 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.2%
Line / Spread
Broncos -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.2%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W L L L | 24.8 |
Warriors | W W W L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Broncos
19.2
Warriors
Avg Margin
-0.8
Broncos
4.8
Warriors
Run Metres
1706
Broncos
1624
Warriors
Line Breaks
7.6
Broncos
3.4
Warriors
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Broncos 17W–22L (44%) and Warriors 15W–17L (47%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Warriors get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.5. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1567 vs 1454), but the market favours Broncos (@1.50).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Broncos predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +5.3
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