Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 4.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 28 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 47. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 15 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Raiders have a 52% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
33%
Raiders
67%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 298-point ELO rating advantage (1629 vs 1332). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Raiders by 4.2 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.3%
Line / Spread
Raiders +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.3%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W L L L L | 17.6 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.8
Wests Tigers
20.4
Raiders
Avg Margin
-15.2
Wests Tigers
7.2
Raiders
Run Metres
1687
Wests Tigers
1743
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.6
Wests Tigers
5.2
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Raiders hold a 7-point edge: 22W–20L (52%) vs Wests Tigers's 18W–22L (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Raiders predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.2
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