# Wests Tigers v Raiders — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 12 – 16 Raiders

_Raiders hold off a fast-finishing Wests Tigers._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 33% / Raiders 67% · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 20 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Alex Seyfarth (49'), Starford To'a (53' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Joseph Tapine (14' 1st), Jed Stuart (18'), Tom Starling (24')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 67% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 12–16 Raiders in NRL Round 16 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen points in the opening 23 minutes decided this one long before Wests Tigers found their groove. Raiders did it with precision, not volume, and the scoreboard reflected exactly that split in method.

Wests Tigers wanted the ball and mostly got it, 54% of possession, 1,808 run metres to 1,464, 596 post-contact metres and 46 tackle breaks against just 25. On paper that's the busier, harder-carrying side. But 16 errors and a completion rate of only 68% undid a lot of that work, and Raiders made them pay for every loose moment. Canberra, by contrast, held the ball for less time but looked after it, completing at 82% with only 11 errors, and used the boot to control field position with 656 kick metres to Wests Tigers's 476.

That patience showed early. Joseph Tapine opened the scoring in the 13th minute, Jed Stuart followed four minutes later, and Tom Starling crossed in the 23rd to make it 0-16. Three tries in ten minutes, all built off territory and completed sets rather than line breaks, since both sides finished level on four line breaks apiece. Wests Tigers simply couldn't get their hands on the ball at the right end of the field to stop the bleeding.

The home side did find some ambition after the break. Alex Seyfarth got one back in the 48th minute and Starford To'a added another five minutes later, cutting the margin to four points and giving the crowd something to think about. But four points was as close as it got, and Raiders's discipline in defence, missing 46 tackles to Wests Tigers's 25 sounds alarming on its own, held up where it mattered given the 30-point start they'd banked.

The form line and the ratings both pointed this way before kickoff. Raiders came in on four wins from five, averaging 27.6 points a game to Wests Tigers's 17.6, and the halves gap was stark, 1,345 to 1,029, with the forward pack rated similarly lopsided at 1,198 to 1,007. Wests Tigers's one edge on paper was in the backs, 1,002 to 886, and it showed up late when Seyfarth and To'a finally got involved. Just not early enough.

Alphr's model backed Raiders at 67% and pegged the margin at 4.2 points. The final margin was 4. That's about as clean a read as you'll get on a scoreline. The total was the rougher end of it, tipped at 47 combined points against an actual 28, so the under call landed but the shootout it expected never turned up. Raiders also covered the 8.5-point line comfortably enough given how the second half played out.

Wests Tigers will look at the running stats and wonder how a side with that much go-forward and that many tackle breaks still lost by four. The answer's in the completion rate and the 23 minutes they spent watching Canberra put points on the board before they'd found their feet. Raiders didn't need the ball as often. They just made sure that when they had it, something happened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| Raiders | 16 | 0 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 68% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **1,808** | Run metres | 1,464 |
| **596** | Post-contact metres | 514 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **46** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **7** | Offloads | 4 |
| **91.3%** | Effective tackle % | 86.6% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 46 |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 476 | Kick metres | **656** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 4.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 28 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 47. The model went 4/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 8.5-point line. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 15 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 17' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 23' Try — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 48' Try — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 53' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.35 (edge -8.3%) — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 67% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 298 ELO points clear, 1629 to 1332. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Wests Tigers.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Raiders to win, not to win big.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 56-10 in 2026 Round 21.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 13th against Raiders 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Raiders 8 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 56-10 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 13th · Raiders 2nd |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 18W–22L | 45% |
| Raiders | 22W–22L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Wests Tigers 18W–22L (45%) and Raiders 22W–22L (50%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Raiders get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Wests Tigers's -0.9. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 32.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -15.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 1686.8m | Run Metres | 1742.8m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 348.4 | Tackles | 339.8 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 1W–4L | 17.6 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Raiders | 56 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 33 – 14 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R26 | Raiders | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 48 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R2 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.64 conceded/game). Key man: To'a, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 17th there (2.38 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.23/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.64/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.15/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.38/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.79/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.77/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 253m/g | 157m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 27 | 31 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 689m/g | 676m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 18.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.8% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 24 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 520m/g | 593m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.29/g (lg 0.17) +71% · Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.67) +40% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.64/g (lg 0.43) +49% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/8g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 10 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/5g | 2/8g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Heath Mason | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/16g | 4/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/16g | 16% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/6g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Latu Fainu | INT | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 25% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 7/20g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 2/6g | 10% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (0·2·2·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1332 · Raiders 1629 · ELO difference: 298 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1007 (best 1266) | 1198 (best 1331) | Raiders +190 |
| Backs | 1002 (best 1053) | 886 (best 933) | Wests Tigers +116 |
| Halves | 1029 (best 1029) | 1345 (best 1345) | Raiders +316 |
| Hooker | 1096 | 1200 | Raiders +104 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Raiders predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)