# Warriors v Panthers — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 18 – 28 Panthers

_Panthers pounce on Warriors._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 70% / Panthers 30% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 21 June, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Jackson Ford (20'), Jacob Laban (47'), Moala Graham-Taufa (79') · Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (16' 1st Tipped 🎯), Scott Sorensen (37'), Scott Sorensen (55'), Blaize Talagi (63'), Paul Alamoti (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 70% | Lost |
| Panthers | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.1 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 18–28 Panthers in NRL Round 16 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers led 8-6 at the break and never actually trailed after the 55th minute, but this one stayed live far longer than the final 28-18 suggests. Four times the margin sat at four points or less. It took Scott Sorensen's second try, his and the Panthers' fourth of the night, to finally put real daylight on the board.

The shape of it: Thomas Jenkins opened the scoring in the 16th minute, Jackson Ford hit back for the Warriors four minutes later to level it at 4-4. Sorensen's first try before the break nudged Panthers to 8-6. Jacob Laban's try in the 47th had the Warriors in front, 10-8. This was a genuine arm wrestle for the best part of an hour.

Then Sorensen's second, in the 55th, tied it at 12-12, and from there Panthers simply took over. Blaize Talagi in the 62nd, Paul Alamoti in the 69th, and suddenly it's 12-24 and the game's out of reach. Moala Graham-Taufa's try for the Warriors in the 78th was a consolation, nothing more.

The stat sheet explains why Panthers were able to turn a share game into a runaway. They had 55% of possession and used it to break the line six times to the Warriors' two, and their forwards ground out 585 post-contact metres to the Warriors' 522. Nine offloads to one tells its own story about quick play-the-balls and second effort, the sort of thing that turns a tackle into a line break three plays later.

Warriors were tidier without the ball, no argument there. They completed at 79% to Panthers' 73%, and coughed it up only nine times against Panthers' 13. But none of that mattered much when Panthers were running for 1,964 metres to the Warriors' 1,485, and doing it while missing more tackles too, 39 to 33. A sloppier, more error-prone side still won the yardage and the collisions, which is usually the bit that counts.

Pre-match, the model had Warriors as 11.1-point favourites off a rating edge, 1603 to 1507, largely on the back of a big halves advantage, 1405 to 828. That's a gap you'd expect to show up in field position and structure. Instead Panthers' hooker rating, 1122 to the Warriors' 1033, and a stronger back line on paper, 1015 to 934, were the numbers that actually played out on the park. Recent form pointed the same way if you squinted: Panthers arrived running at 1,773 metres a game and breaking the line 4.6 times, both better than the Warriors' recent output despite the worse win record.

Alphr's model had backed the Warriors at 70% and called the margin at 11.1 points the other way. Panthers won by 10. Wrong favourite, wrong direction, and a genuine outlier on a night that finished 3 from 16 for the model. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was very much a miss.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| Panthers | 8 | 20 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| 1,485 | Run metres | **1,964** |
| 522 | Post-contact metres | **585** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| 1 | Offloads | **9** |
| 88.1% | Effective tackle % | **89.9%** |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **9** | Errors | 13 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 640 | Kick metres | **645** |

**Model Report Card**

Panthers defied the model's 70% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. Panthers led 6–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 10. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 37' Try — Scott Sorensen (Panthers) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 10-8 · win-prob swing +20 pts
- 55' Try — Scott Sorensen (Panthers) — 12-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 62' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 12-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 78' Try — Moala Graham-Taufa (Warriors) — 16-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.26 (edge -12.4%) — model probability 70.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 70% to see off Panthers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 96 ELO points clear, 1603 to 1507. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Panthers.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Warriors by 11.1, with the two sides combining for about 38. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 23.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 3rd against Panthers 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 28-12 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 3rd · Panthers 9th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6W–7L | 46% |
| Panthers | 7W–7L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Warriors 6W–7L (46%) and Panthers 7W–7L (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Warriors get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Panthers's -1.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.4pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 1666.8m | Run Metres | 1773.0m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 369.4 | Tackles | 392.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 23.4 |
| Panthers | 3W–2L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Warriors | 28 – 12 | Panthers |
| 2026 | R13 | Panthers | 20 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2025 | FW1 | Warriors | 8 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R11 | Warriors | 22 – 20 | Panthers |
| 2023 | FW1 | Panthers | 32 – 6 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 13th there (1.46 conceded/game). Key man: Tuivasa-Sheck, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 7th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: McLean, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.15/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 7th) | 1.31/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.85/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.23/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.77/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 6 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 210m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.5% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 28 | 30 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 646m/g | 754m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 16.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 549m/g | 482m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7% · 2nd Rows 0.4/g (lg 0.44) -9%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.43) +2% · Wingers 1.2/g (lg 1.25) -4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 6/22g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/10g | 17/27g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 4/26g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Moala Graham-Taufa | CE | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 3/16g | 12/49g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 9/21g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/13g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/27g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Marata Niukore | PR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 5/18g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 7% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/22g | 12% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daine Laurie | FB | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·3) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 37' 55' |
| 12 | Isaiah Papali'i | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 3/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1603 · Panthers 1507 · ELO difference: 96 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1154 (best 1302) | 1089 (best 1243) | Warriors +65 |
| Backs | 934 (best 1119) | 1015 (best 1159) | Panthers +81 |
| Halves | 1405 (best 1405) | 828 (best 828) | Warriors +577 |
| Hooker | 1033 | 1122 | Panthers +89 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)