# Roosters v Cowboys — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 42 – 8 Cowboys

_Roosters crow over Cowboys._

Half time: 18 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 69% / Cowboys 31% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 22 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Lindsay Collins (5' 1st), Billy Smith (23'), Connor Watson (26'), Billy Smith (47'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (50' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (52' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (57' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (73' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Braidon Burns (29' Tipped ⚡), Murray Taulagi (64' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 69% | Won |
| Cowboys | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 42–8 Cowboys in NRL Round 16 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two sides can run the same distance and still tell completely different stories. Cowboys carted the ball forward for 1,561 metres, a solid shift by most measures. Roosters did it with the ball actually in hand when it counted, completing at 81% against the Cowboys' 67%, and turned that discipline into a 42-8 demolition at Allianz Stadium.

The gap wasn't about desire. Cowboys missed 45 tackles to the Roosters' 23, which tells you where this one was actually lost. You can run all the metres you like, but if your line's got holes in it every second set, the scoreboard's going to reflect that eventually.

It started reflecting it early. Lindsay Collins crashed over in the 4th minute, and by the 25th, Roosters had put on three unanswered tries through Collins, Billy Smith and Connor Watson to lead 16-0. Braidon Burns got one back for the Cowboys in the 29th, but the damage was already 18-4 at the break, and that gap only ever looked like widening.

It widened fast. Smith grabbed his second in the 46th, Mark Nawaqanitawase crossed in the 49th, Tedesco in the 52nd, Daniel Tupou in the 56th. Four tries in ten minutes turned a comfortable lead into a rout, 38-4 before the Cowboys had time to reset. Murray Taulagi's try in the 64th was a minor formality by then, and Nawaqanitawase's second late on just put a final number on it.

The line break count, 6 to 3, doesn't sound like much on its own, but stack it against 45 tackle breaks to 23 and 18 offloads to 8, and you get a picture of a Roosters side that kept finding second and third efforts the Cowboys simply couldn't match. Post-contact metres told the same tale, 675 to 527. That's a forward pack going through arm tackles, not around them.

None of this should shock anyone who looked at the pre-match numbers. Roosters held the edge everywhere that matters, forwards 1158 to 1072, halves 1216 to 1060, and hooker a lopsided 1200 to 756. Add in the form line, Roosters averaging 26.8 points a game against the Cowboys shipping 35.6, and this had the shape of a mismatch well before kickoff.

Alphr's model backed Roosters at 69% and got the winner right, no argument there. The margin was where it fell over, tipped at 7.6 points and the Roosters won by 34. Credit where it's due and an honest miss where it's due too, that's 7 from 16 on this one. Roosters covered the 5.5 line without much fuss.

Cowboys will point to the errors column, just 16 giveaways against 45 missed tackles, and know exactly which number to fix first. Kick metres told a small part of the story too, Roosters controlling territory at 752 to 485, which only compounds a defence already under siege. Ambition's fine. It's better with a system behind it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 18 | 24 | 42 |
| Cowboys | 4 | 4 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,982** | Run metres | 1,561 |
| **675** | Post-contact metres | 527 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **18** | Offloads | 8 |
| **89.8%** | Effective tackle % | 85.0% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| **9** | Errors | 16 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **752** | Kick metres | 485 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Roosters led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 7/16 on this match. Roosters covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Roosters have a 60% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Lindsay Collins (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 23' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 25' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 29' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 46' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 49' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 28-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 52' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 32-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 56' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 38-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 64' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 38-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 42-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.48 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 68.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 69% to see off Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 108 ELO points clear, 1535 to 1427. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cowboys.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 82-12 in 2026 Round 22.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 8th against Cowboys 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Cowboys 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 82-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 8th · Cowboys 10th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 43W–29L | 60% |
| Cowboys | 19W–25L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 43 of 72 games (60%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 19 from 44 (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.6pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 1696.2m | Run Metres | 1702.0m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 371.2 | Tackles | 349.8 |
| 14.0 | Errors | 13.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 26.8 |
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Cowboys | 12 – 82 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R11 | Roosters | 12 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R13 | Roosters | 16 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R10 | Roosters | 6 – 20 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R22 | Roosters | 32 – 18 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.92 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.62 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 6th there (0.92 conceded/game). Key man: Derby, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.23/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.62/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 12 | 10 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 174m/g | 222m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 32 | 32 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 726m/g | 758m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.8/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 75.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 7 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 517m/g | 455m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 88.6% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Props 0.27/g (lg 0.17) +59% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/12g | 23/43g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 9/15g | 64/93g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 25% | — | 🏉 23' 47' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 73' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/26g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 5/38g | 14% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 7/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Salesi Foketi | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | INT | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam McIntyre | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Mikaele | Replacement | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1535 · Cowboys 1427 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1158 (best 1309) | 1072 (best 1206) | Roosters +86 |
| Backs | 1109 (best 1203) | 824 (best 874) | Roosters +285 |
| Halves | 1216 (best 1216) | 1060 (best 1060) | Roosters +156 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 756 | Roosters +444 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Roosters predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)