Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Roosters led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Roosters have a 60% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
69%
Cowboys
31%
AI Match Overview
Roosters are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Roosters ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1427). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Roosters by 7.6 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Roosters -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W L L | 26.8 |
Cowboys | W L L L L | 17.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Roosters
35.6
Cowboys
Avg Margin
6.8
Roosters
-18.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1696
Roosters
1702
Cowboys
Line Breaks
5.0
Roosters
4.8
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 42 of 70 games (60%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 19 from 42 (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Cowboys get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Roosters predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.6
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.