# Rabbitohs v Storm — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 24 – 25 Storm

_Storm pip Rabbitohs by a point._

Half time: 4 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 30% / Storm 70% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 21 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (26' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (43' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (47' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (54' Tipped ⚡), Tyrone Munro (76' Tipped ⚡) · Storm: Harry Grant (3' 1st), Jahrome Hughes (6' Tipped ⚡), Grant Anderson (52' Tipped ⚡), Tyran Wishart (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 70% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 24–25 Storm in NRL Round 16 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten minutes in, Storm led 10-0 and the game looked over before it started. Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes crossed inside the first five, and on the pre-match numbers, with Storm's halves rated 1318 to the Rabbitohs' 1153, that sort of start was exactly what the model had priced in. What it didn't have priced in was Alex Johnston deciding to score four tries on his own.

Johnston got his first in the 26th minute, his second in the 43rd, his third in the 46th to level things at 12-12, and his fourth in the 53rd to make it 18-18. Four tries in under half an hour of match time, and suddenly a game Storm were expected to win by 8.7 points was dead even. That's the passage that turned it: Rabbitohs went from chasing a ten-point hole to level terms almost entirely off one man's finishing.

Storm didn't blink. Grant Anderson snuck them back in front at 51', Tyran Wishart did it again at 68' to make it 20-22, and when Tyrone Munro scored for the Rabbitohs at 76' to tie it at 24-24, it looked set for extra time or a coin flip. Instead Ryan Papenhuyzen slotted a one-point field goal in the 83rd minute, and Storm escaped 25-24.

The stat sheet tells you how they escaped. Rabbitohs were the tidier side with the ball, completing at 84% to Storm's 74% and coughing it up only 10 times to Storm's 14. On another night that discipline wins you the match. But Storm had the go-forward: 1,829 run metres to 1,671, and 589 post-contact metres to 527, meaning they were finishing carries with defenders hanging off them far more often than South Sydney could manage.

That physical edge showed up everywhere. Storm broke 30 tackles to the Rabbitohs' 20, offloaded 8 times to 3, and tackled at 93.8% effective compared to the home side's 89.3%. Rabbitohs missed 30 tackles, Storm missed 20. When a game comes down to a single point, that ten-tackle gap in defence is about as clean an explanation as you'll find.

Rabbitohs did have one weapon working for them all night: territory. 840 kick metres to 673 gave them the field position to keep threatening, and it's no accident that's where Johnston kept finding his tries. But field position without enough forward power behind it only gets you so far, and with Storm's pack rated 1124 to 1092 coming in, the collisions leaned their way when it counted.

Storm's form line coming in, three wins from five and an average margin of plus-18.6, said this was a side that closes games out. They did, just not comfortably. Alphr's model backed Storm at 70% and had them winning by 8.7. They won by one. The total of 49 landed close to the predicted 53, and the over on 48.5 came in as tipped. Storm covered the line too, for what it's worth, though nobody watching that finish would call it comfortable.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4 | 20 | 24 |
| Storm | 12 | 13 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| 1,671 | Run metres | **1,829** |
| 527 | Post-contact metres | **589** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **30** |
| 3 | Offloads | **8** |
| 89.3% | Effective tackle % | **93.8%** |
| 30 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **840** | Kick metres | 673 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 49, within 4 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Storm covered the 7.5-point line. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 5 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Storm have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 5' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 26' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 43' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 46' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 12-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 51' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 53' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 68' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 76' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 24-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 83' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 24-25 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.40 (edge -11.8%) — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 70% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 286 ELO points clear, 1662 to 1376. Form leans Storm's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Storm by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 53. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 28-26 in 2026 Round 21.

Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Storm 3.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 14th against Storm 4th.

Storm come in fresher, 15 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 28-26 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 14th · Storm 4th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Storm 100% |
| Rest gap | Rabbitohs 6d · Storm 15d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 9W–11L | 45% |
| Storm | 13W–5L | 72% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Storm's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 34.8pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | 18.6pts |
| 1518.4m | Run Metres | 1783.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 371.6 | Tackles | 313.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 20.8 |
| Storm | 3W–2L | 34.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 26 | Storm |
| 2026 | R8 | Storm | 6 – 48 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R8 | Storm | 24 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R23 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 28 | Storm |
| 2024 | R8 | Storm | 54 – 20 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 6th there (0.92 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.75 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (2.07 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.21/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.07/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 9th) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 16 | 9 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 150m/g | 234m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 84.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 25 | 42 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 633m/g | 681m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 13.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.7% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 12 | 12 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 499m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.29/g (lg 1.25) +3% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.67) +0% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.1) -20%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.27) +67% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/16g | 25/43g | 38% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (0·2·2·0·1·0·1·3·1·1) | 13/14g | 84/88g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 43' 47' 54' |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | 5/8 | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/22g | 6/19g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/27g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | Replacement | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/35g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/23g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Davvy Moale | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/28g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 5/18g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Ryan Gray | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 5/61g | 4% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 12 in 12g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·4·0·0·0) | 9/7g | 4/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·3·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/11g | 6/22g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 2/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/11g | 2/9g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (3·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/7g | 34% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/4g | 34% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 15 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | LK | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Bronson Garlick | Replacement | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1376 · Storm 1662 · ELO difference: 286 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1092 (best 1290) | 1124 (best 1296) | Storm +32 |
| Backs | 1021 (best 1111) | 1021 (best 1108) | Even |
| Halves | 1153 (best 1153) | 1318 (best 1318) | Storm +165 |
| Hooker | 994 | 1095 | Storm +101 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Storm predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-rabbitohs-v-storm
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)