Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 49, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 5 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Storm have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
30%
Storm
70%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Storm ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Storm carry a 286-point ELO rating advantage (1662 vs 1376). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Storm by 8.7 points with a combined total of 53.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.8%
Line / Spread
Storm +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.8%
Total Points
Over 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 20.8 |
Storm | W W W L L | 34.8 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Rabbitohs
16.2
Storm
Avg Margin
-3.6
Rabbitohs
18.6
Storm
Run Metres
1518
Rabbitohs
1783
Storm
Line Breaks
3.8
Rabbitohs
5.2
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Storm predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 53 · Line: -8.7
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