# Eels v Titans — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 36 – 20 Titans

_Eels slither past Titans._

Half time: 18 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 42% / Titans 58% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 22 June, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Sean Russell (12'), Joey Lussick (16'), Charlie Guymer (21'), Dean Hawkins (48'), Will Penisini (66'), Will Penisini (70') · Titans: Jaimin Jolliffe (3' 1st), Chris Randall (28'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (34' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 58% | Lost |
| Eels | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 36–20 Titans in NRL Round 16 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Four minutes flipped this game from a contest into a rout. Alofiana Khan-Pereira's second try, in the 62nd minute, had the Titans within four at 24-20 and looking like they might nick it. Then Will Penisini went over twice, once at 66 minutes and again at 70, and just like that it was 34-20 and the argument was over. Eels 36, Titans 20 was how it finished at CommBank Stadium.

Before that burst, this had been tight all night. Jaimin Jolliffe scored inside three minutes to put the Titans up 4-0, but the Eels answered with three tries in quick succession through Sean Russell, Joey Lussick and Charlie Guymer to lead 16-6 by the 20th minute. Chris Randall and Khan-Pereira hit back either side of half-time to leave it 18-16 at the break, a two-point game that could have gone either way.

The stat sheet explains why the Eels kept finding daylight when it mattered. Eight line breaks to three, 31 tackle breaks to 20, 14 offloads to four. That's not a team scraping ahead, that's a team that kept getting quick ball to the right side of the ruck and making defenders miss once it got there. Dean Hawkins added a try in the 48th minute to push the margin to six, before Penisini's double turned a nervy lead into a comfortable one. Penisini finished with two tries and copped a late sin bin in the 78th minute, by which point it didn't change anything.

Oddly enough, the Titans were the tidier side with ball in hand. They completed at 82% to the Eels' 80% and coughed up only 10 errors to 12. None of that counted for much once their defence missed 31 tackles against the Eels' 20, and their effective tackle rate sagged to 86.1% against 92.6%. Clean footy without the ball means little when the line keeps bending.

The Eels also gave away more penalties, five to one, which is the kind of number that usually costs a team territory and field position. It didn't here. Possession was close to even, 51% to 49%, and the Titans actually shaded the collision stats, 662 post-contact metres to 626 and 1,887 run metres to the Eels' 1,935. Kicking games were near identical too, 673 metres to 666. On the underlying numbers this was a genuinely even contest. The gap came down to what each side did with the ball in space, not how much of it they had.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Titans | 16 | 4 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **1,935** | Run metres | 1,887 |
| 626 | Post-contact metres | **662** |
| **8** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| **14** | Offloads | 4 |
| **92.6%** | Effective tackle % | 86.1% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| **673** | Kick metres | 666 |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 58% prediction for Titans, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Eels led 18–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 1/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Eels's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jaimin Jolliffe (Titans) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 11' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 15' Try — Joey Lussick (Eels) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Charlie Guymer (Eels) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 28' Try — Chris Randall (Titans) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 34' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Dean Hawkins (Eels) — 22-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 62' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 24-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 66' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 28-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 70' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 34-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' Sin Bin — Will Penisini (Eels) — 34-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.80 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Titans by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Titans are the call at 58%, but Eels stay live at 42%. The ratings say otherwise: Eels sit 37 ELO points clear, 1376 to 1339, so the model is backing Titans against the ratings gap.

On paper Eels shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Titans, which says Forward Pack and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Titans by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Titans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 52-10 in 2026 Round 6.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Eels 16th against Titans 17th.

Eels come in fresher, 13 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 7 · Titans 3 |
| Last meeting | Titans 52-10 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 16th · Titans 17th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Titans 0% |
| Rest gap | Eels 13d · Titans 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14W–27L | 34% |
| Titans | 8W–16L | 33% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Eels 14W–27L (34%) and Titans 8W–16L (33%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Titans's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | -6.8pts |
| 1731.0m | Run Metres | 1691.4m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 364.0 | Tackles | 350.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 19.2 |
| Titans | 2W–3L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Eels | 10 – 52 | Titans |
| 2024 | R19 | Titans | 24 – 16 | Eels |
| 2023 | R20 | Eels | 25 – 24 | Titans |
| 2023 | R10 | Titans | 26 – 24 | Eels |
| 2022 | R5 | Titans | 20 – 26 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 14th-ranked right edge attack (0.85 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Russell, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.69 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.69/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.69/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.23/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.46/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) | 1.31/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.62/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 10 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 178m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 83.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 36 | 26 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 742m/g | 655m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.8/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 12 | 9 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 450m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.36/g (lg 0.17) +112% · Fullbacks 0.7/g (lg 0.43) +63% · 2nd Rows 0.69/g (lg 0.44) +57%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.67) +39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 3/13g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/40g | 24% | — | 🏉 66' 70' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 13/27g | 22% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 13/9g | 8/14g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 3% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 9/77g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/16g | 2/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/19g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Samrani | Replacement | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 25% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 6/3g | 2/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 62' |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 6/10g | 5/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Allan Fitzgibbon | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/22g | 4/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/52g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Klese Haas | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Eels hold the ELO advantage (1376 vs 1339), but the market favours Titans (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1376 · Titans 1339 · ELO difference: 37 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 (best 1252) | 1140 (best 1312) | Titans +39 |
| Backs | 872 (best 945) | 1189 (best 1234) | Titans +318 |
| Halves | 1100 (best 1100) | 1297 (best 1297) | Titans +197 |
| Hooker | 1104 | 823 | Eels +281 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Titans predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)