AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Eels's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 58% prediction for Titans — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Eels led 18–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
42%
Titans
58%
AI Match Overview
Titans hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 42%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Eels carry a 37-point ELO rating advantage (1376 vs 1339). The margin model predicts Titans by 3.0 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Titans to Win @1.80
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.1%
Line / Spread
Titans +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWLLL | 19.2 |
Titans | WWLLL | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
16.8
Eels
28.0
Titans
Avg Margin
2.4
Eels
-6.8
Titans
Run Metres
1731
Eels
1691
Titans
Line Breaks
5.0
Eels
5.0
Titans
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Gerard Sutton officiates — Eels 13W–23L (36%) and Titans 8W–14L (36%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Eels hold the ELO advantage (1376 vs 1339), but the market favours Titans (@1.80).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Titans predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.0
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