Win Probability
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 71% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
71%
Knights
29%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 242-point ELO rating advantage (1614 vs 1371). Recent form favours Dolphins with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 10.1 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.34
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.2%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.2%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W W W L | 38.0 |
Knights | W W L L L | 14.2 |
Avg Conceded
10.0
Dolphins
17.6
Knights
Avg Margin
28.0
Dolphins
-3.4
Knights
Run Metres
1934
Dolphins
1845
Knights
Line Breaks
6.6
Dolphins
4.6
Knights
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Dolphins 6W–6L (50%) and Knights 15W–17L (47%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Knights's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Dolphins predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +10.1
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