# Dolphins v Knights — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 20 – 26 Knights

_Knights charge down a gallant Dolphins._

Half time: 10 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 71% / Knights 29% · HBF Park, Perth · Sat, 21 June, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Kodi Nikorima (11'), Connelly Lemuelu (32' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (54' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (60' Tipped ⚡) · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Bradman Best (18'), Dominic Young (24' Tipped ⚡), Bradman Best (64'), Brodie Jones (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 71% | Lost |
| Knights | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 20–26 Knights in NRL Round 16 at HBF Park, Perth. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Knights 26, Dolphins 20 at HBF Park, and the scoreboard pressure swung more times than most punters would like in a six-point game.

Fletcher Sharpe had the Knights up inside four minutes, then Kodi Nikorima hit back for the Dolphins to make it 4-6. That was the last time it looked tight for a while. Bradman Best and Dominic Young ran in tries either side of the twenty-minute mark and suddenly the home side were staring at a 4-16 deficit, the kind of gap that can bury a team by half-time.

It didn't bury this one. Connelly Lemuelu got the Dolphins back within eight at 8-16, and by the break it was 10-16, Knights still ahead but the margin shrinking rather than growing. Dane Gagai's sin bin just after the hour gave the Dolphins a numbers edge, and they made it count. Jamayne Isaako crossed to make it 14-16, then Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow put the home side in front for the first time all night, 18-16, in the 59th minute.

That lead lasted four minutes. Bradman Best's second try levelled it at 20-20, and the game stayed level until Brodie Jones crossed in the 78th to put the Knights back in front for good, sealing it 26-20. From four points down at the death to level at 20-all to gone again inside the last ten minutes, this one had more lead changes than the final margin suggests.

The stat sheet explains why the Knights kept finding a way back. They missed just 21 tackles to the Dolphins' 40, and their effective tackle rate of 92.4% against 88.0% meant fewer easy metres for the home side to work with. The Knights also won the collision battle where it mattered most, busting 40 tackles to the Dolphins' 21, a huge gap that let them keep generating field position even when their completion rate was no better than even, both sides finished at 82%.

The Dolphins had their own case for control. They held 52% of possession, ran for 1,819 metres to the Knights' 1,568, and broke the line six times to three. Connelly Lemuelu's men also gave away just two penalties compared to six from the Knights, and matched them closely on errors, eight to seven. None of it was enough to offset the Knights' work with ball in hand once it was in contact, or their dominance through the boot: 780 kick metres to 572 gave Newcastle the territorial edge that so often decides these arm-wrestles.

Alphr's model had this one pegged for the Dolphins, giving them a 71% chance and forecasting a 10.1-point win built on ratings that had them well ahead in the forwards, backs and halves. The Knights defied that, winning by six instead of losing by ten, a genuine upset against the model's numbers. The under 46.5 total did land, with the model going 7 from 16 for the round. On the night, it was the collision stats, tackle breaks and missed tackles, that told the story the ratings didn't see coming.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Knights | 16 | 10 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 82% | Completion rate | 82% |
| **1,819** | Run metres | 1,568 |
| **515** | Post-contact metres | 498 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **92.4%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 8 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 572 | Kick metres | **780** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 71% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 6 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Knights bucked the trend, Dolphins historically win 57% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 10' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 18' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 8-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 50' Sin Bin — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 8-16 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 53' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 14-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 59' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 18-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 63' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 20-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 78' Try — Brodie Jones (Knights) — 20-24 · win-prob swing -7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.34 (edge -9.2%) — model probability 70.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 10 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 71% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 242 ELO points clear, 1614 to 1371. Form leans Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 38. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 6 of the last 7 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 13-12 in 2026 Round 18.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 6th against Knights 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Dolphins 1 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 13-12 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 6th · Knights 15th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 8W–6L | 57% |
| Knights | 16W–18L | 47% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Dolphins hold a 10-point edge: 8W–6L (57%) vs Knights's 16W–18L (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Knights get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 38.0pts | Avg Score | 14.2pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 1934.4m | Run Metres | 1845.0m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 321.0 | Tackles | 387.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 4W–1L | 38.0 |
| Knights | 2W–3L | 14.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Knights | 13 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R2 | Knights | 26 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R27 | Knights | 14 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R8 | Dolphins | 14 – 18 | Knights |
| 2023 | R23 | Dolphins | 28 – 30 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.43 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.64 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.79 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Lucas, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) | 0.79/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.43/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.64/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.07/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.86/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.57/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 10 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 196m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 29 | 16 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 759m/g | 804m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 23/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 76.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 500m/g | 541m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Centres 0.89/g (lg 0.67) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at HBF Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·2·0·1·2) | 3/8g | 1/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 6/10g | 1/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·2·1) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·4) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.75 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 16 | Ray Stone | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 18' 64' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Mat Croker | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 13 | Phoenix Crossland | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Brodie Jones | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 15 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1614 · Knights 1371 · ELO difference: 242 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1155 (best 1295) | 1114 (best 1334) | Dolphins +41 |
| Backs | 1209 (best 1226) | 1105 (best 1163) | Dolphins +104 |
| Halves | 1400 (best 1400) | 1239 (best 1239) | Dolphins +161 |
| Hooker | 1058 | 1120 | Knights +62 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-dolphins-v-knights
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)