Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 5.1 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. Broncos trailed 12–22 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 34–28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Broncos's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
57%
Sharks
43%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. Sharks carry a 106-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1422). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Broncos by 5.1 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.4%
Line / Spread
Broncos -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.4%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W L L L L | 19.6 |
Sharks | W W W L L | 23.4 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Broncos
28.0
Sharks
Avg Margin
-6.8
Broncos
-4.6
Sharks
Run Metres
1695
Broncos
1691
Sharks
Line Breaks
6.2
Broncos
4.6
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Broncos have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Sharks's 0 from 1 (0%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (1 games for Sharks).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Broncos get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Sharks's -3.0.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1528 vs 1422), but the market favours Broncos (@1.50).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Broncos predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.1
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