# Broncos v Sharks — NRL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 34 – 28 Sharks

_Broncos surge back to charge down Sharks from 10 down._

Half time: 12 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 57% / Sharks 43% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 22 June, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Cory Paix (19'), Ezra Mam (37' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (54' Tipped ⚡), Josiah Karapani (58'), Josiah Karapani (67'), Gehamat Shibasaki (71' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Siosifa Talakai (5' 1st), William Kennedy (14'), William Kennedy (26'), Nicho Hynes (30'), Blayke Brailey (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 57% | Won |
| Sharks | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 34–28 Sharks in NRL Round 16 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Broncos winning by 5.1. They won by 6. Fair to say that one landed close enough to call it a good week at the office, even if the path there looked nothing like anyone drew it up.

Broncos 34, Sharks 28 at Suncorp Stadium. What the model didn't see coming was Sharks racing out to a 22-12 half-time lead, built on tries to Siosifa Talakai, William Kennedy (2) and Nicho Hynes inside the first 30 minutes. Kennedy's second, in the 25th, and Hynes five minutes later had Sharks looking like they'd blow the margin out, not lose it. Cory Paix and Ezra Mam got Broncos on the board either side of that burst, but at the break it was Sharks by ten and the pre-match rating gap (Sharks 1528 to Broncos 1422) looked like it was telling the truth.

Then Blayke Brailey's try in the 46th stretched it to 26-12 and Sharks were 14 up with half the game gone. That's the moment the result should have been sealed. Instead Broncos scored four of the last five tries in the match: Gehamat Shibasaki twice, Josiah Karapani twice, the second of Karapani's levelling it at 28-28 in the 67th before Shibasaki's second, in the 71st, put it away for good.

The stat sheet explains why the second half belonged to Broncos even though the first didn't. Errors: 6 to 13, a gap that let Broncos control ball far more than the 50-50 possession split suggests. Completion rate, 85% to 75%. Sharks kept coughing up field position at exactly the wrong moments, and Broncos made them pay with 11 line breaks to 9 and 492 post-contact metres against 372, the kind of go-forward that turns a 14-point deficit into a 6-point win over 40 minutes.

Discipline mattered too. Broncos gave away just 4 penalties to 7, and with Sione Katoa sin-binned in the 40th right on the break, Sharks were never going to claw back momentum with a man light and the concession count going against them. Broncos also owned the boot, 671 kick metres to 564, which explains a fair chunk of that territory swing after the break.

Sharks' first-half account is legitimate. Their halves and hooker were rated well above Broncos coming in, 1248 to 1121 and a lopsided 1271 to 828 at hooker, and for 40 minutes that showed. Four tries in the opening half, including Talakai's opener in the 4th, was exactly what a stronger spine should produce. What it couldn't do was hold up once Broncos found their completion rate and stopped leaking the ball.

Broncos, by contrast, came in off one win in five with an average losing margin of 6.8 points, hardly form to inspire confidence. The forward pack rating (1142 to 1012) and back line (1144 to 1050) were the two edges the model had to lean on, and by full time that's exactly where the game was decided, not through the middle where Sharks' spine had won the individual battle, but through completion, go-forward and discipline everywhere else.

Four correct picks from sixteen markets isn't a number to brag about, but the headline call, and the margin, held up. Broncos covering the 4.5 wasn't obvious at half-time. It rarely is.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| Sharks | 22 | 6 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,655** | Run metres | 1,568 |
| **492** | Post-contact metres | 372 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 9 |
| **33** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| **14** | Offloads | 7 |
| **88.8%** | Effective tackle % | 85.8% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 33 |
| **6** | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **671** | Kick metres | 564 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 5.1 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. Broncos trailed 12–22 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 34–28. The model went 4/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Broncos's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Broncos have a 38% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Siosifa Talakai (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — Cory Paix (Broncos) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 25' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 37' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 40' Sin Bin — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 46' Try — Blayke Brailey (Sharks) — 12-26 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 53' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 16-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 57' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 22-28 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 67' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 28-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 34-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -7.4%) — model probability 57.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 57%, but Sharks stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 106 ELO points clear, 1528 to 1422, so the model is backing Broncos against the ratings gap. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Broncos by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 28-16 in 2026 Round 18.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 7th against Sharks 5th.

Broncos come in fresher, 14 days between games against 9.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 6 · Sharks 4 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 28-16 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 7th · Sharks 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Broncos 14d · Sharks 9d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Sharks | 0W–1L | 0% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Broncos have won 3 of 8 games (38%), significantly stronger than Sharks's 0 from 1 (0%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (1 games for Sharks).

Broncos get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Sharks's -3.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | -4.6pts |
| 1694.6m | Run Metres | 1691.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 368.4 | Tackles | 333.6 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 1W–4L | 19.6 |
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Broncos | 16 – 28 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R14 | Broncos | 12 – 22 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R14 | Sharks | 12 – 20 | Broncos |
| 2022 | R8 | Broncos | 16 – 7 | Sharks |
| 2021 | R24 | Sharks | 24 – 16 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.69 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 9th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.93 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.69/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.93/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.62/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) | 1.43/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.86/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 115m/g | 176m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 30 | 35 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 673m/g | 728m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 16.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 601m/g | 546m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.7/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.67) +10%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.67) +4% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 3/5g | 16/29g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 58' 67' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/8g | 37/73g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 7/14g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' 71' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 11 in 13g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 17/45g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 16/31g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 8/54g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 1/45g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/37g | 12% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/75g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 13/60g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/61g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/47g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/51g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/12g | 16% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/11g | 24% | — | 🏉 14' 26' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 3/8g | 5/10g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/10g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/6g | 4/10g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/13g | 10% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/12g | 30% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/13g | 6% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/12g | 36% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1528 vs 1422), but the market favours Broncos (@1.50). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1422 · Sharks 1528 · ELO difference: 106 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1142 (best 1335) | 1012 (best 1265) | Broncos +130 |
| Backs | 1144 (best 1200) | 1050 (best 1149) | Broncos +94 |
| Halves | 1121 (best 1121) | 1248 (best 1248) | Sharks +126 |
| Hooker | 828 | 1271 | Sharks +443 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Broncos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)