# Titans v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 28 – 8 Sea Eagles

_Titans flex on Sea Eagles._

Half time: 22 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 33% / Sea Eagles 67% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Fri, 13 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Allan Fitzgibbon (11' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (15' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (19' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Campbell (31'), Chris Randall (70') · Sea Eagles: Reuben Garrick (4' 1st), Reuben Garrick (26' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 67% | Lost |
| Titans | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 28–8 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 15 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Five errors to eleven. That single number decided it, and it's why Titans left Cbus Super Stadium with a 28-8 win over Sea Eagles that nobody saw coming.

On paper this was meant to be a hiding the other way. Sea Eagles came in rated 1478 to the Titans' 1286, favourites by 9.8 points, and the form line backed it up: Titans had won just one of their last five, conceding an average of 34 points a game. Alphr's model gave Sea Eagles a 67% chance of victory. Titans ignored the script entirely.

Reuben Garrick got Sea Eagles off to the perfect start, scoring inside four minutes to make it 0-4. It didn't last. Allan Fitzgibbon levelled it up by the 11th minute, and then Alofiana Khan-Pereira took over, scoring twice in the space of four minutes to push Titans out to 14-4. Garrick pulled one back in the 25th minute, but Jayden Campbell answered five minutes later, and Titans went to the sheds up 22-8. Chris Randall added another try in the 69th minute to see the margin out at 28-8.

The completion numbers explain how it happened. Titans finished at 90%, Sea Eagles at 80%, and the gap between 5 errors and 11 is the story of a side that couldn't hold the ball long enough to build any pressure. Titans also crossed the line seven times to four. Sea Eagles actually won the offload count 10 to 7, but it never turned into points, mostly because they didn't have the ball long enough to make it count.

What makes the scoreline stranger is the positional read going in. Sea Eagles were rated ahead of Titans everywhere that matters: forwards 1190 to 931, backs 1132 to 1015, halves 1216 to 906, hooker 1200 to 1031. On paper that should show up in go-forward. Instead Titans led the tackle-break count 45 to 41, ran for more metres, 1,846 to 1,760, and made more post-contact metres too, 641 to 604, numbers you wouldn't expect from the side rated weaker in every forward and spine position on the sheet.

Titans controlled the boot as well, 766 kick metres to 655, which combined with the low error count let them squeeze territory out of a game they weren't supposed to win at all. Discipline played its part too: six penalties conceded to seven, nothing drastic, but another small edge for the home side.

For Sea Eagles, Garrick was the shining light with both of their tries, and their effective tackle percentage was marginally better than the Titans', 86.8% to 86.3%. But 45 missed tackles and the inability to hang onto the ball undid whatever defensive structure they had going.

Alphr's model called this one badly, picking Sea Eagles by 9.8 when the actual margin ran out at 20 points the other way, and it finished 3 from 16 on the match overall. The one thing it got right was the total, with the under 50.5 landing. Everything else needs a rethink.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 22 | 6 | 28 |
| Sea Eagles | 8 | 0 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **90%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| **1,846** | Run metres | 1,760 |
| **641** | Post-contact metres | 604 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 41 |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| 86.3% | Effective tackle % | **86.8%** |
| **41** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| **5** | Errors | 11 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **766** | Kick metres | 655 |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 67% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Titans bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 47% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 11' Try — Allan Fitzgibbon (Titans) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 15' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 14-4 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 25' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 16-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 20-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 69' Try — Chris Randall (Titans) — 26-8 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.32 (edge -11.9%) — model probability 67.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 67% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 192 ELO points clear, 1478 to 1286. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 47. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 38-32 in 2026 Round 20.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Titans 17th against Sea Eagles 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 4 · Sea Eagles 6 |
| Last meeting | Titans 38-32 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 17th · Sea Eagles 9th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 8W–18L | 31% |
| Sea Eagles | 9W–10L | 47% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Sea Eagles have won 9 of 19 games (47%), significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 26 (31%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Titans get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 34.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1599.2m | Run Metres | 1731.6m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 347.0 | Tackles | 352.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 19.2 |
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Titans | 38 – 32 | Sea Eagles |
| 2026 | R12 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 10 | Titans |
| 2024 | R20 | Sea Eagles | 38 – 8 | Titans |
| 2024 | R7 | Titans | 30 – 34 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R9 | Sea Eagles | 10 – 26 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 13th there (1.77 conceded/game). Key man: Brimson, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.46 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2.17 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th) | 1/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.17/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 40 | 33 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 641m/g | 732m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 11.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 15 | 8 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 562m/g | 531m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.37/g (lg 0.17) +118% · Fullbacks 0.72/g (lg 0.43) +67% · 2nd Rows 0.7/g (lg 0.44) +59%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 7/9g | 25/57g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 5 in 7g | 9/10g (3·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/3g | 22/23g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 19' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 18/61g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·2·0) | 4/8g | 30/59g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Allan Fitzgibbon | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 9/29g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 14/30g | 32% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/42g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/27g | 8% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 10/37g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Klese Haas | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Patston | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tukimihia Simpkins | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/9g | 7/5g | 42% | — | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 7/8g | 3/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/9g | 6/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 4' 26' |
| 5 | Tommy Talau | WG | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 1/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 3 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Lachlan Croker | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 4/6g | 3/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 2/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Brown | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1286 · Sea Eagles 1478 · ELO difference: 192 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 931 (best 1184) | 1190 (best 1350) | Sea Eagles +259 |
| Backs | 1015 (best 1169) | 1132 (best 1213) | Sea Eagles +117 |
| Halves | 906 (best 906) | 1216 (best 1216) | Sea Eagles +310 |
| Hooker | 1031 | 1200 | Sea Eagles +169 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)