Win Probability
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 67% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Titans bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 50% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
33%
Sea Eagles
67%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 192-point ELO rating advantage (1478 vs 1286). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.9%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W L L L L | 19.2 |
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
34.0
Titans
19.6
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-14.8
Titans
1.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1599
Titans
1732
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
3.8
Titans
5.4
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Sea Eagles have won 9 of 18 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 24 (29%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Titans get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -9.8
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