Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sharks by 10.7 vs the actual margin of 12 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 48, within 4 points. Sharks trailed 6–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–18. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 5 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Sharks have a 53% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
75%
Dragons
25%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Sharks ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 119-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1391). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Sharks by 10.7 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.32
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.9%
Line / Spread
Sharks -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.9%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W W L L | 23.0 |
Dragons | W W L L L | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
28.0
Sharks
27.4
Dragons
Avg Margin
-5.0
Sharks
-7.8
Dragons
Run Metres
1616
Sharks
1631
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.4
Sharks
5.4
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sharks hold a 14-point edge: 17W–15L (53%) vs Dragons's 15W–23L (39%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Dragons get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sharks's -1.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Sharks predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +10.7
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