# Rabbitohs v Bulldogs — NRL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 18 – 24 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs let the dogs loose on a gallant Rabbitohs._

Half time: 4 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 33% / Bulldogs 67% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 15 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (39' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (57'), Jack Wighton (72'), Tyrone Munro (78' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Toby Sexton (7' 1st), Marcelo Montoya (13' Tipped ⚡), Connor Tracey (15'), Marcelo Montoya (60' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 67% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 18–24 Bulldogs in NRL Round 15 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifteen minutes in, this one already looked over. Toby Sexton, Marcelo Montoya and Connor Tracey scored inside the opening quarter and the Bulldogs led 16-0 before South Sydney had touched the ball in anger. Alex Johnston got the Rabbitohs on the board just before the break, but 18-4 at half-time was always going to be a big hole against a side this well-drilled.

Full time: Bulldogs 24, Rabbitohs 18. The scoreboard tightened up plenty after the break, but that first quarter did the damage that mattered.

The Rabbitohs actually won the arm-wrestle for large stretches of the second half. Tallis Duncan, Jack Wighton and Tyrone Munro all crossed between the 56th and 78th minutes, and a Jake Turpin sin bin in the 60th gave them a look at closing the gap. They didn't get there. Montoya's second, in the 60th minute, restored a healthy buffer just as South Sydney threatened to make a real fist of it, and 18 unanswered second-half points from the home side still weren't enough to run down 24.

The stats explain why the early hole was so hard to climb out of. Canterbury ran for 1,941 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,248, backed that up with 562 post-contact metres to 404, and broke 32 tackles to South Sydney's 22. Sixteen offloads to five tells you the Bulldogs kept the ball alive through contact all night, and with 56% of possession they simply had more chances to use it. Line breaks went their way too, 6 to 4.

South Sydney were the tidier side on paper. They completed at 88% against 83%, and made only 7 errors to the Bulldogs' 9. Doesn't matter much when your line is missing 32 tackles to the opposition's 22. That's the number that undoes a completion rate. Effective tackle percentage told the same story, 91.4% for the Bulldogs against 88.1% for the home side, and the Rabbitohs' 4 penalties conceded to 11 shows discipline wasn't the issue either. It was simply getting bumped off the ball too often.

The pre-match numbers pointed this way. Canterbury came in rating 1582 to South Sydney's 1389, with a backs edge of 1060 to 889 and a halves edge of 1036 to 897 that showed up in exactly the areas that decided it, go-forward and line-break threat. The Rabbitohs' hooker rating, 1192 to 1164, was one of the few areas they held an edge, and it wasn't enough to offset the rest.

Alphr's model backed the Bulldogs at 67% and had them winning by 2.7, with a combined total of 44. Final margin was 6, final total 42, both close reads. The under on 45.5 landed too. Not a bad night for the model, 6 from 16 on this match, but the top-line calls, the winner, the margin, the total, all held up. The form lines suggested this was coming, Canterbury's four wins from five against South Sydney's two, and on the night the gap showed early and never fully closed.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4 | 14 | 18 |
| Bulldogs | 18 | 6 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 83% |
| 1,248 | Run metres | **1,941** |
| 404 | Post-contact metres | **562** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 22 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 5 | Offloads | **16** |
| 88.1% | Effective tackle % | **91.4%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 11 |
| **854** | Kick metres | 740 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 7.5-point line. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Toby Sexton (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 12' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 15' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 38' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 4-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 56' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 8-18 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 60' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 62' Sin Bin — Jake Turpin (Bulldogs) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 71' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 78' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 18-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.4%) — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 67% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 193 ELO points clear, 1582 to 1389. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Bulldogs to win, not to win big.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 22-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 12th against Bulldogs 1st.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 22-6 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 12th · Bulldogs 1st |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Bulldogs 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 16W–20L | 44% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–14L | 53% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 9-point edge: 16W–14L (53%) vs Rabbitohs's 16W–20L (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Bulldogs get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -0.4. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 1667.8m | Run Metres | 1734.0m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 367.2 | Tackles | 342.8 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 18.0 |
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Bulldogs | 6 – 22 | Rabbitohs |
| 2026 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 24 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R7 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 36 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 2nd there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (2.08 conceded/game). Key man: Tracey, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.46/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.31/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.08/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.92/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.15/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 10th) | 1.42/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 15 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 22 | 22 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 640m/g | 778m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 12 | 16 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 459m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.44) +18% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.67) +15% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.27) +70% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/11g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (0·0·2·2·0·1·0·1·3·1) | 16/18g | 83/87g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/10g | 5/18g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 4 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/26g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 3/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Jayden Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | PR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 11/44g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/15g | 5/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/17g | 4% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/27g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sean Keppie | Replacement | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 5/60g | 4% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 5/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 5/16g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jacob Kiraz | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 10/31g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 60' |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/15g | 14% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 8 | Josh Curran | PR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/16g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $12.00 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 4/41g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/13g | 6/24g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 5/17g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Bailey Hayward | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Turpin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Lipoi Hopoi | Replacement | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/22g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1389 · Bulldogs 1582 · ELO difference: 193 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1083 (best 1317) | 1036 (best 1285) | Rabbitohs +47 |
| Backs | 889 (best 978) | 1060 (best 1190) | Bulldogs +171 |
| Halves | 897 (best 897) | 1036 (best 1036) | Bulldogs +139 |
| Hooker | 1192 | 1164 | Rabbitohs +29 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)