Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
33%
Bulldogs
67%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 193-point ELO rating advantage (1582 vs 1389). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.7 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.43
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.4%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 18.0 |
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Rabbitohs
22.8
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-7.6
Rabbitohs
3.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1668
Rabbitohs
1734
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.4
Rabbitohs
5.0
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Rabbitohs 15W–18L (45%) and Bulldogs 14W–14L (50%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -0.9. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.7
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