NRL | Round 15

alphr.com.au

SOU
Rabbitohs
VS
CBY
Bulldogs
ACCOR STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 15 JUNE, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Bulldogs by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

67%BulldogsFavourite

Rabbitohs

33%

Bulldogs

67%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 193-point ELO rating advantage (1582 vs 1389). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.7 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.43

Winner ✓

Edge

-3.4%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +7.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-3.4%

Total Points

Under 45.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Rabbitohs
WWLLL
18.0
Bulldogs
WWWWL
26.4

Avg Conceded

25.6

Rabbitohs

22.8

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

-7.6

Rabbitohs

3.6

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1668

Rabbitohs

1734

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

3.4

Rabbitohs

5.0

Bulldogs

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

SOU
47%14W 16L
CBY
48%13W 14L

Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Rabbitohs 14W–16L (47%) and Bulldogs 13W–14L (48%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Rabbitohs lead 3-2
Apr 2026SOU 32 - 24 CBY
Apr 2025SOU 0 - 32 CBY
Mar 2024SOU 20 - 16 CBY
Jul 2023SOU 32 - 36 CBY
Apr 2023SOU 50 - 16 CBY
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SOU
1389Overall1582
CBY
ELO difference: -193 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1083Forwards1036
Best: 1317SOU +47Best: 1285
889Backs1060
Best: 978CBY +171Best: 1190
897Halves1036
Best: 897CBY +139Best: 1036
1192Hooker1164
SOU +29

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SOU
Stat
CBY
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
18.0pts
Avg Score
26.4pts
25.6pts
Avg Conceded
22.8pts
-7.6pts
Avg Margin
3.6pts
1667.8m
Run Metres
1734.0m
3.4
Line Breaks
5.0
367.2
Tackles
342.8
9.8
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rabbitohs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulldogs
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Rabbitohs
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Rabbitohs

Model Confidence

67%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.7

3/3 match predictions correct
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