Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Roosters by 4.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 46. Roosters trailed 6–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 8–12. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 22 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Roosters's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Roosters have a 54% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
43%
Roosters
57%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Roosters carry a 134-point ELO rating advantage (1520 vs 1387). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Roosters by 4.3 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.6%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W L L L | 16.6 |
Roosters | W W W L L | 33.6 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Knights
22.0
Roosters
Avg Margin
-3.4
Knights
11.6
Roosters
Run Metres
1776
Knights
1725
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.8
Knights
6.4
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 7-point edge: 32W–27L (54%) vs Knights's 16W–18L (47%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Knights get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -2.1. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Roosters predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.3
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