# Knights v Roosters — NRL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 8 – 12 Roosters

_Roosters rally to strut past Knights._

Half time: 6 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 43% / Roosters 57% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sat, 14 June, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Kyle McCarthy (4' 1st) · Roosters: Salesi Foketi (61'), Siua Wong (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 57% | Won |
| Knights | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 8–12 Roosters in NRL Round 15 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve offloads to five. That's the number that flipped Roosters from six points down to four points up, and it's as good a place as any to start explaining how the Knights lost 8-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium after leading at the break.

Kyle McCarthy scored inside three minutes, Knights up 4-0 and then 6-0 at half-time, and for a long stretch that lead looked like it might hold. It didn't. Salesi Foketi crossed in the 60th minute to make it 8-4, Siua Wong followed ten minutes later to put Roosters in front 8-10, and that's how it finished. Two tries in ten minutes, after an hour of nothing on the board for the visitors.

The offload count tells you why Roosters found those chances late. Twelve offloads keeps a tackle alive, keeps the ball moving through contact, and gives support runners a second chance at the line when the first hit doesn't finish the job. The Knights managed five. Everything else in the stat sheet points to Newcastle doing the harder yards without turning them into points: 2,060 run metres to 1,817, 732 post-contact metres to 648, 35 tackle breaks to 27. All the ingredients of field position and territory, not enough at the end of it.

Roosters were the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 80% to the Knights' 77% and coughing up only 12 errors to 13. Small margins, but in a match finishing 12-8 they add up. Discipline mattered too: Roosters conceded six penalties to the Knights' three, which should have handed Newcastle more field position than it did. Roosters also controlled things with the boot, out-kicking Newcastle 857 metres to 708, which matters when your forward pack is winning the collision battle anyway. The Knights held 54% of possession and still came up short, which says plenty about what Roosters did with the ball they did have.

Defensively it was scrappier for the visitors, missing 35 tackles to the Knights' 27 and landing an effective tackle rate of 91.2% against 89.2%, numbers that look contradictory until you remember the Knights simply ran it back at them more often. Line breaks were shared three apiece, so neither side was cutting the other to shreds out wide. This was won in the middle third and in the back end of the tackle count.

The pre-match read had Roosters favourites at 57% and predicted them to win by 4.3 points. They won by 4. Hard to ask for much more from a margin model. The total was the one that missed, tipped at 46 combined points against an actual 20, a reminder that low-scoring arm-wrestles don't always announce themselves in advance.

Form lines pointed the right way too. Roosters arrived averaging 33.6 points a game across their last five to the Knights' 16.6, and a halves rating of 1293 to 1121 in Newcastle's favour didn't stop Roosters' forward pack, rated 1102 to 1034, doing enough when it counted.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Roosters | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 77% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| **2,060** | Run metres | 1,817 |
| **732** | Post-contact metres | 648 |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| **35** | Tackle breaks | 27 |
| 5 | Offloads | **12** |
| 89.2% | Effective tackle % | **91.2%** |
| **27** | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 708 | Kick metres | **857** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Roosters by 4.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 46. Roosters trailed 6–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 8–12. The model went 2/16 on this match. Roosters covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 22 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Kyle McCarthy (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 60' Try — Salesi Foketi (Roosters) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 70' Try — Siua Wong (Roosters) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.50 (edge -18.6%) — model probability 57.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 57%, but Knights stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 134 ELO points clear, 1520 to 1387. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Roosters by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 23-22 in 2026 Round 21.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Knights 15th against Roosters 10th.

Roosters come in fresher, 12 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 1 · Roosters 9 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 23-22 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 15th · Roosters 10th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Roosters 100% |
| Rest gap | Knights 8d · Roosters 12d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 18W–18L | 50% |
| Roosters | 32W–28L | 53% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Knights 18W–18L (50%) and Roosters 32W–28L (53%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Knights get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -1.2. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.6pts | Avg Score | 33.6pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 1775.8m | Run Metres | 1724.8m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 389.4 | Tackles | 335.0 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 14.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–3L | 16.6 |
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 33.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Knights | 22 – 23 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R7 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Knights |
| 2024 | R6 | Knights | 20 – 22 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R16 | Knights | 16 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2022 | R19 | Knights | 12 – 42 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 16th-ranked middle attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 16th there (2.17 conceded/game). Key man: Jones, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.69 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.69/g (def 12th) | 1.75/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.17/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.62/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.83/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 7 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 179m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 88.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 20 | 32 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 794m/g | 712m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.4/g | 19.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.6% | 82.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 542m/g | 515m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.43) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/7g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 25/102g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 20/27g | 34% | — | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Mat Croker | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/37g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/36g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Brodie Jones | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/41g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/23g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 7% | — | — |
| 13 | Phoenix Crossland | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/48g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 7/12g | 4/7g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 13/15g | 7/10g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 24/24g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | HB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Salesi Foketi | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 11 | Egan Butcher | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1387 · Roosters 1520 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1034 (best 1253) | 1102 (best 1263) | Roosters +68 |
| Backs | 1096 (best 1176) | 1088 (best 1154) | Knights +9 |
| Halves | 1293 (best 1293) | 1121 (best 1121) | Knights +172 |
| Hooker | 1098 | 600 | Knights +498 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Roosters predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)