Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 54 points. Dolphins led 4–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 70% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
39%
Dolphins
61%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 90-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1476). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 7.7 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.1%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.1%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W L L L L | 21.6 |
Dolphins | W W W L L | 31.6 |
Avg Conceded
30.0
Cowboys
16.4
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-8.4
Cowboys
15.2
Dolphins
Run Metres
1783
Cowboys
1770
Dolphins
Line Breaks
5.4
Cowboys
5.2
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 7 from 14 (50%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dolphins get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Cowboys's +0.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -7.7
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