# Cowboys v Dolphins — NRL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 4 – 58 Dolphins

_Dolphins make a splash against Cowboys._

Half time: 4 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 39% / Dolphins 61% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 14 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Murray Taulagi (27' Tipped ⚡) · Dolphins: Jack Bostock (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jack Bostock (15' 1st Tipped ⚡), Oryn Keeley (21'), Kurt Donoghoe (40'), Jack Bostock (44' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jake Averillo (52'), Herbie Farnworth (65' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bostock (70' 1st Tipped ⚡), Ray Stone (72'), Kodi Nikorima (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 61% | Won |
| Cowboys | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 4–58 Dolphins in NRL Round 15 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cowboys actually won the completion count on Saturday, 74 per cent to the Dolphins' 78, a gap of next to nothing, and they gave the ball away twice fewer than their opponents, 12 errors to 14. On paper that's the sort of stat that should keep you in a game. Instead they lost 58-4, and the rest of the sheet explains why.

The clean handling didn't buy them anything up front. Cowboys ran for 1,415 metres against the Dolphins' 2,260, and post-contact the gap was just as ugly: 476 metres to 676. That's a side getting shoved backwards at the point of contact all night, no matter how tidy they were with the footy in hand.

Where it really fell apart was in defence. Cowboys missed 40 tackles for the match against just 16 from the Dolphins, and an effective tackle rate of 82.8 per cent next to the visitors' 93.5 tells you the line wasn't holding. Every time Dolphins found space they went straight through it: 11 line breaks to 2, 39 tackle breaks to 16, and 20 offloads to keep the ball alive when Cowboys thought they had the tackle finished.

The game was gone early. Jack Bostock opened the scoring inside three minutes, and by the 11th, with Felise Kaufusi sent to the bin, the Cowboys were already 0-8 down and playing a man short. Bostock scored again during that sin bin spell, Oryn Keeley made it 0-14, and Murray Taulagi's try in the 26th minute was the only response the home side could manage before the break. Kurt Donoghoe crossed right on half-time to make it 4-22 at the sheds.

It didn't slow down after the resumption. Bostock added his third soon after half-time for 4-26, Jake Averillo made it 4-32 in the 51st minute, and then the last quarter turned it into a rout: Herbie Farnworth, then Bostock again for his fourth, then Ray Stone and finally Kodi Nikorima all crossed to take the score out to 58-4. Bostock finished with four tries, the standout individual return in a Dolphins performance that had scorers all over the sheet.

The form line pointed this way before kick-off. Dolphins arrived with three wins from five and an average margin of plus 15.2 across that stretch, against a Cowboys side sitting on minus 8.4, and the ratings had the visitors stronger in every positional group, forwards, backs, halves and hooker. Alphr's model had Dolphins at 61 per cent to win, and that call landed. The margin was the miss: 7.7 points projected, 54 delivered, on a night the ball ran almost entirely the visitors' way after contact.

Cowboys can point to the completion rate and the low error count and argue they held up their end of that particular contract. It doesn't count for much when you're missing a quarter of your tackles and conceding line breaks in bunches. Dolphins covered the 3.5-point line with metres to spare, and from the moment Bostock's second try went up, it was never in doubt.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Dolphins | 22 | 36 | 58 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 74% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| 1,415 | Run metres | **2,260** |
| 476 | Post-contact metres | **676** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **11** |
| 16 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| 4 | Offloads | **20** |
| 82.8% | Effective tackle % | **93.5%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **16** |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 419 | Kick metres | **480** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 54 points. Dolphins led 4–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 5/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 3.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 15 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 73% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 11' Sin Bin — Felise Kaufusi (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 14' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 21' Try — Oryn Keeley (Dolphins) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 26' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 39' Try — Kurt Donoghoe (Dolphins) — 4-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 43' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 4-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 51' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 4-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 65' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 4-38 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 69' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 4-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 4-50 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 4-56 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.65 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 8 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 61%, but Cowboys stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 90 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1476. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cowboys.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 36-16 in 2026 Round 20.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 6th against Dolphins 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Cowboys 2 · Dolphins 6 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 36-16 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 6th · Dolphins 7th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 7W–8L | 47% |
| Dolphins | 11W–4L | 73% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 7 from 15 (47%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Cowboys's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 31.6pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | 15.2pts |
| 1782.6m | Run Metres | 1770.2m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 345.8 | Tackles | 337.0 |
| 13.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 21.6 |
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 31.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Dolphins | 36 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R14 | Cowboys | 14 – 40 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R20 | Dolphins | 43 – 24 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R9 | Cowboys | 26 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R1 | Dolphins | 18 – 43 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 7th there (0.92 conceded/game). Key man: Derby, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.31 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 10th there (1.58 conceded/game). Key man: Lemuelu, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.23/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 10th) | 2.31/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 6 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 226m/g | 217m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 28 | 35 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 769m/g | 746m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.6% | 84.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 14 | 6 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 456m/g | 491m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.67) +34%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.17) +59% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 18/62g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/5g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 1/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Braidon Burns | CE | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 28/49g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/60g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Coen Hess | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/47g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/43g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kaiden Lahrs | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Averillo | FB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 11/13g | 8/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Max Feagai | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·2) | 2/8g | 0/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 15' 44' 70' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/19g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 7% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 3/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1476 · Dolphins 1566 · ELO difference: 90 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 951 (best 1138) | 1107 (best 1264) | Dolphins +156 |
| Backs | 1010 (best 1108) | 1146 (best 1193) | Dolphins +136 |
| Halves | 1087 (best 1087) | 1316 (best 1316) | Dolphins +229 |
| Hooker | 696 | 870 | Dolphins +175 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Cowboys |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)