# Wests Tigers v Panthers — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 14 – 18 Panthers

_Panthers pounce on a gallant Wests Tigers._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 34% / Panthers 66% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 08 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Starford To'a (19' Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (26' Tipped ⚡), Jeral Skelton (70') · Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), Thomas Jenkins (39' 1st Tipped 🎯), Thomas Jenkins (63' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 66% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 14–18 Panthers in NRL Round 14 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven line breaks to two. That's the number that explains how Panthers got out of CommBank Stadium with an 18-14 win over Wests Tigers, even though the scoreboard spent long stretches looking like a genuine contest.

It was locked at 10-10 at half-time, and for a while the game played out exactly like that scoreline suggests. Thomas Jenkins opened the scoring in the 14th minute, Starford To'a hit back for Wests Tigers four minutes later, and Sunia Turuva put the home side in front just before the half-hour. Jenkins levelled it right on the stroke of half-time with his second, and from there the match tightened into the arm-wrestle the ladder positions suggested it might be, Panthers rated 1493 to Wests Tigers's 1346 heading in, with the model expecting a Panthers win by 6.7.

The break in the second half came from Jenkins again, his third try of the night in the 63rd minute pushing Panthers out to 16-10. Jeral Skelton got one back for Wests Tigers six minutes later, but it wasn't enough, and Panthers closed it out 18-14. A hat-trick from one player deciding a four-point game tells you most of what you need to know about where this one turned.

The seven line breaks to two is the headline number, but it sits inside a bigger pattern. Panthers busted 39 tackles to 25, and Wests Tigers missed 39 of their own against just 25 from the visitors. Add an effective tackle rate of 90.5% against 87.8%, and you've got a Panthers side that was harder to hold up and better at holding on. That's not a small edge, that's the difference between a team that creates chances and one that mostly survives them.

Wests Tigers actually won the collision count where it's measured in metres, grinding out 590 post-contact metres to 457, and they shaded possession 51% to 49%. But run metres overall went to Panthers, 1,668 to 1,622, and completion rate was no contest: 87% against 81%. Ten errors against eight, six penalties conceded against seven. None of those numbers is enormous on its own, but stacked together they explain why Panthers controlled the contest even in the periods they weren't scoring.

Kicking metres tell the same story from a different angle. Panthers put boot to ball for 734 metres to Wests Tigers's 592, which lines up with the forward pack and halves ratings coming in, 1196 to 1063 up front and 1234 to 1112 in the halves. That's a side built to control territory doing exactly that.

Wests Tigers came in off an average conceded of 32.8 points across their last five, so limiting Panthers to 18 and taking the game to a two-score margin is a step up on recent form, even in a loss. It just wasn't enough against a Panthers outfit whose own form line, an average margin of minus-0.6 across their last five, suggested a team that finds a way to be in every game.

Alphr's model backed Panthers at 66% and picked the margin at 6.7, close enough to the real 4-point gap to call it a sharp read, and had the total going under 46.5. Line breaks won this one. Everything else was just the supporting cast.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| Panthers | 10 | 8 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 81% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 1,622 | Run metres | **1,668** |
| **590** | Post-contact metres | 457 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| 9 | Offloads | 9 |
| 87.8% | Effective tackle % | **90.5%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 592 | Kick metres | **734** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 6.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 10.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (78 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 10 points below Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Panthers's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Panthers have a 75% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 18' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 39' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 63' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -18 pts
- 69' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 14-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.30 (edge -11.6%) — model probability 65.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 66% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 147 ELO points clear, 1493 to 1346.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Panthers by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 46. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 38-10 in 2026 Round 27.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 13th against Panthers 14th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 38-10 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 13th · Panthers 14th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Panthers 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 78 career games since 2017.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 6W–10L | 38% |
| Panthers | 6W–2L | 75% |

Avg total: 41.7 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Panthers have won 6 of 8 games (75%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 6 from 16 (38%).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Panthers's -1.5. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 32.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| -14.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.6pts |
| 1740.2m | Run Metres | 1715.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 342.2 | Tackles | 385.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 18.8 |
| Panthers | 2W–3L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Panthers | 38 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R14 | Wests Tigers | 0 – 68 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R21 | Panthers | 36 – 2 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R7 | Panthers | 22 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R9 | Panthers | 8 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 12th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 17th there (2.58 conceded/game). Key man: Talagi, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 1.42/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.25/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.58/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.58/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 251m/g | 203m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 24 | 27 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 687m/g | 750m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.5% | 79.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 526m/g | 492m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.44) -5% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.44) -7%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.65/g (lg 0.44) +48% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 9 in 12g | 6/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/17g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 1/8g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 6 | Heath Mason | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/9g | 1/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Sione Fainu | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Seyfarth | LK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Kit Laulilii | INT | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Charlie Murray | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 4/11g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' 39' 63' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/9g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 5/10g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/14g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Sommerton | Replacement | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 19% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1346 · Panthers 1493 · ELO difference: 147 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1063 (best 1287) | 1196 (best 1386) | Panthers +133 |
| Backs | 1036 (best 1143) | 1031 (best 1121) | Wests Tigers +4 |
| Halves | 1112 (best 1112) | 1234 (best 1234) | Panthers +122 |
| Hooker | 1084 | 986 | Wests Tigers +98 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Panthers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-wests-tigers-v-panthers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)