NRL | Round 14

alphr.com.au

WST
Wests Tigers
VS
PEN
Panthers
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 8 JUNE, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (71 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 9 points below Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 41. Panthers's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend — Panthers have a 71% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Panthers by 6.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

66%PanthersFavourite

Wests Tigers

34%

Panthers

66%

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Panthers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Panthers carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1346). The margin model predicts Panthers by 6.7 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.6%

Line / Spread

Panthers +10.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.6%

Total Points

Under 46.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-0.6%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wests Tigers
WWLLL
18.8
Panthers
WWLLL
19.2

Avg Conceded

32.8

Wests Tigers

19.8

Panthers

Avg Margin

-14.0

Wests Tigers

-0.6

Panthers

Run Metres

1740

Wests Tigers

1715

Panthers

Line Breaks

4.0

Wests Tigers

4.0

Panthers

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Panthers
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski71 games since 2017

Each team's win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

WST
43%6W 8L
PEN
71%5W 2L

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Panthers have won 5 of 7 games (71%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 6 from 14 (43%). That's a 28‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.3 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 7 games for Panthers — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

41.3 pts

Home Win %

45%

Home Bias

Leans away

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Aug 2025WST 2 - 36 PEN
Apr 2024WST 6 - 22 PEN
May 2023WST 12 - 8 PEN
Jul 2022WST 16 - 18 PEN
Aug 2021WST 16 - 30 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST
1346Overall1493
PEN
ELO difference: -147 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1063Forwards1196
Best: 1287PEN +133Best: 1386
1036Backs1031
Best: 1143EvenBest: 1121
1112Halves1234
Best: 1112PEN +122Best: 1234
1084Hooker986
WST +98

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST
Stat
PEN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
18.8pts
Avg Score
19.2pts
32.8pts
Avg Conceded
19.8pts
-14.0pts
Avg Margin
-0.6pts
1740.2m
Run Metres
1715.0m
4.0
Line Breaks
4.0
342.2
Tackles
385.4
10.6
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Panthers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Tigers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Panthers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Tigers

Model Confidence

66%

Panthers predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -6.7

3/3 match predictions correct
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