Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 6.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (75 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 10 points below Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Panthers's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Panthers have a 75% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.5 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
34%
Panthers
66%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Panthers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Panthers carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1346). The margin model predicts Panthers by 6.7 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.6%
Line / Spread
Panthers +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.6%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 18.8 |
Panthers | W W L L L | 19.2 |
Avg Conceded
32.8
Wests Tigers
19.8
Panthers
Avg Margin
-14.0
Wests Tigers
-0.6
Panthers
Run Metres
1740
Wests Tigers
1715
Panthers
Line Breaks
4.0
Wests Tigers
4.0
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersZiggy Przeklasa-Adamski
75 career games · since 2017
Win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Panthers have won 6 of 8 games (75%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 6 from 15 (40%).
Avg Total
41.7 pts
Home Win %
45%
Home Bias
Leans away
Pen / Game
13.5
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
70%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.5 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.4 against home vs 7.1 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Panthers's -1.5. 70% of his 37 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Panthers predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -6.7
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