# Storm v Cowboys — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 38 – 14 Cowboys

_Storm blow away Cowboys._

Half time: 18 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 74% / Cowboys 26% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Fri, 06 June, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Eliesa Katoa (5' 1st), Jahrome Hughes (17'), Jahrome Hughes (40'), Nick Meaney (43'), Nelson Asofa-Solomona (58'), Tyran Wishart (79') · Cowboys: Jaxson Paulo (21'), Scott Drinkwater (52'), Robert Derby (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 74% | Won |
| Cowboys | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 38–14 Cowboys in NRL Round 14 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm led 16-4 deep in the first half, still just about within reach for the Cowboys. Then Jahrome Hughes and Nick Meaney crossed either side of the break, three minutes apart in game time but decisive in every other sense, and 16-4 became 22-4. That's the passage that killed it. The Cowboys spent the rest of the night chasing a margin that had already got away from them.

Final score: Storm 38, Cowboys 14, and the 18-4 half-time buffer explains most of it. Katoa opened the scoring in the 4th minute, Hughes doubled up either side of the interval, and by the time Nelson Asofa-Solomona barrelled over in the 58th it was 28-14 and academic. Tyran Wishart's try in the 78th was just the scoreboard catching up to what had already been decided.

The Cowboys didn't fold. Jaxson Paulo, Scott Drinkwater and Robert Derby all got over, and Drinkwater and Derby scored two minutes apart just after the break to drag it back to 24-14. For about ten minutes that looked like it might matter. It didn't, because Storm had the ball more often (54% possession) and did far more with it.

The completion numbers tell that story on their own. Storm finished at 81%, the Cowboys at 61%, and that gap is the difference between building phases and handing the ball back. Storm's 12 errors against the Cowboys' 16 backs it up. You can't score from turnovers you don't force, and the Cowboys weren't forcing enough of them.

Up front, Storm's 1,821 run metres and 668 post-contact metres against 1,699 and 516 point to a pack that was getting over the advantage line and then some, which lines up with the forward rating edge coming in, 1140 to 1100. The tackle-break count, 42 to 28, says Storm were the harder side to bring down all night. On the flip side, the Cowboys missed 42 tackles to Storm's 28, and in a game where Storm made 86.2% of theirs to the Cowboys' 85.7%, that gap in missed tackles is where the tries actually came from.

Oddly enough the Cowboys had the better offload count, 15 to 9, and shared the line break count six apiece, so it's not as though they were locked out of attacking ball. They just couldn't finish enough sets, and Storm's 661 kick metres to 344 meant the Cowboys were forever starting theirs deeper.

Storm went in with the stronger form line too, three wins from five against two, and were conceding 16.6 points a game to the Cowboys' 26. The one spot the Cowboys had an edge on paper was halves, 1281 to 1119, but it didn't show up where it needed to on the night.

Alphr's model had Storm at 74% to win and picked the margin at 13.5, on a projected total of 43. The actual margin was 24, on a total of 52, so the model had the right team and the right shape of game, just not enough of it. Storm covered the 14.5-point line comfortably. The model went 3/16 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 18 | 20 | 38 |
| Cowboys | 4 | 10 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 61% |
| **1,821** | Run metres | 1,699 |
| **668** | Post-contact metres | 516 |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| **42** | Tackle breaks | 28 |
| 9 | Offloads | **15** |
| **86.2%** | Effective tackle % | 85.7% |
| **28** | Missed tackles | 42 |
| **12** | Errors | 16 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **661** | Kick metres | 344 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 13.5 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Storm led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 3/16 on this match. Storm covered the 14.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 64% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Jaxson Paulo (Cowboys) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -9 pts
- 39' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 42' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 52' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 24-8 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 54' Try — Robert Derby (Cowboys) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 58' Try — Nelson Asofa-Solomona (Storm) — 28-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 78' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 36-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.23 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 74.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 14 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 74% to see off Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 138 ELO points clear, 1639 to 1501. Form leans Storm's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 13.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2026 Round 4.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Storm 3, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Storm 4th against Cowboys 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Cowboys 4 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 28-24 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 4th · Cowboys 6th |
| Finals odds | Storm 100% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 35W–20L | 64% |
| Cowboys | 16W–21L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 35 of 55 games (64%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 16 from 37 (43%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 15.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1796.4m | Run Metres | 1865.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 317.0 | Tackles | 335.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 3W–2L | 32.0 |
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Cowboys | 28 – 24 | Storm |
| 2025 | R18 | Cowboys | 20 – 26 | Storm |
| 2024 | R26 | Cowboys | 38 – 30 | Storm |
| 2023 | R14 | Cowboys | 45 – 20 | Storm |
| 2022 | R11 | Cowboys | 36 – 6 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 16th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Coates, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.82 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 7th there (0.91 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.55/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.73/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.64/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 7th) | 1.82/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 2 | 10 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 224m/g | 226m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 27 | 28 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 684m/g | 765m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 76.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 1 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 546m/g | 460m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 88.9% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.28/g (lg 1.25) +2% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.67) +1% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.1) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·4·0·0) | 0/4g | 37/40g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·0·3·1·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 5/18g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 17/37g | 24% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·3) | 2/4g | 35/32g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/15g | 34/93g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 27/64g | 28% | — | 🏉 17' 40' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 17/40g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Josh King | INT | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/39g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/27g | 36% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/39g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/33g | 34% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 15 | Bronson Garlick | Replacement | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/45g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | PR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 13/87g | 16% | — | 🏉 58' |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Jaxson Paulo | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 30% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/45g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam McIntyre | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/3g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1639 · Cowboys 1501 · ELO difference: 138 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1140 (best 1323) | 1100 (best 1278) | Storm +40 |
| Backs | 1083 (best 1144) | 1042 (best 1145) | Storm +41 |
| Halves | 1119 (best 1119) | 1281 (best 1281) | Cowboys +162 |
| Hooker | 1093 | 979 | Storm +115 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Storm predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)