Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 13.5 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Storm led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 13+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 65% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
74%
Cowboys
26%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1639 vs 1501). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Storm by 13.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.23
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.8%
Line / Spread
Storm -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.8%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W L L | 32.0 |
Cowboys | W W L L L | 28.8 |
Avg Conceded
16.6
Storm
26.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
15.4
Storm
2.8
Cowboys
Run Metres
1796
Storm
1865
Cowboys
Line Breaks
5.4
Storm
6.8
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 52 games (65%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 14 from 32 (44%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Storm predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +13.5
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