# Sharks v Warriors — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 10 – 40 Warriors

_Warriors put Sharks to the sword._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 70% / Warriors 30% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 07 June, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Mawene Hiroti (22' Tipped ⚡), KL Iro (34') · Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Adam Pompey (15'), James Fisher-Harris (42'), Demitric Vaimauga (54'), Leka Halasima (59'), Chanel Harris-Tavita (67'), Chanel Harris-Tavita (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 70% | Lost |
| Warriors | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 10–40 Warriors in NRL Round 14 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten points down to twelve up at the break, and the Sharks had every reason to think this was still there for the taking. KL Iro had crossed in the 33rd minute to get them within two, and a tight, scrappy arm wrestle looked set to go the distance. It didn't.

What followed was one of those second halves that makes the ledger look ugly in a hurry. Warriors scored five unanswered tries after the break, James Fisher-Harris starting the bleeding just a minute after the restart, then Demitric Vaimauga, Leka Halasima and a double from Chanel Harris-Tavita finishing it off. Sharks didn't trouble the scoreboard again. Twelve became forty, and the Sharks' ten stayed exactly where it was.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Warriors ran for 1,719 metres to the Sharks' 1,525, busted 39 tackles to 31, and did it all while completing at 92% against the Sharks' 85%. Handling the ball better and making more of it, simple as that. Sharks actually shaded possession, 51% to 49%, but had nothing to show for the extra footy.

Defensively it fell apart for the home side. Thirty-nine missed tackles against the Warriors' 31 is the number that matters most here, and it lines up neatly with a Warriors backline that carried a 944 rating into this one against the Sharks' 889. The forward packs were close enough on paper, 1,059 to 1,055, but out wide the gap showed up on the scoreboard.

Then there's the halves. Warriors came in rated 1,260 to the Sharks' 1,019, and Chanel Harris-Tavita's double either side of the hour mark is exactly the sort of finish you'd expect from that kind of edge. Add 713 kicking metres to the Sharks' 592 and the Warriors were dictating both where the ball went and who was chasing it all night.

Sharks got tries from Mawene Hiroti and KL Iro and not much else to hang their hat on. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak opened the scoring for Warriors inside five minutes and Adam Pompey followed soon after, and from there the Sharks were always playing catch-up, even during the stretch they briefly led the arithmetic on effort. Errors were close, seven to six, penalties square at six apiece. It wasn't the fine margins that did the Sharks in, it was what happened whenever the ball got wide.

Form lines suggested this could go either way, Sharks at 3 wins from 5, Warriors at 4, both sides averaging in the low-to-mid twenties. Alphr's model had the Sharks favourites, expecting them to win by 6.6 on a combined total of 44. The total wasn't far off, the game produced 50. The margin was nowhere close. Warriors by 30, not Sharks by six and a bit. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one lands firmly in the misses column.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Warriors | 12 | 28 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 85% | Completion rate | **92%** |
| 1,525 | Run metres | **1,719** |
| 506 | Post-contact metres | **512** |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| **12** | Offloads | 10 |
| 86.3% | Effective tackle % | **87.5%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 7 | Errors | **6** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 592 | Kick metres | **713** |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 70% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. Warriors led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 6 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Warriors bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 74% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 14' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 33' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 41' Try — James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 54' Try — Demitric Vaimauga (Warriors) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 58' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 66' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 10-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 76' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 10-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.45 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 70.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 70% to see off Warriors. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Sharks.

On paper Warriors shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Sharks, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Sharks by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 5th against Warriors 3rd.

Sharks come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 5 · Warriors 5 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 10-8 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 5th · Warriors 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Sharks 13d · Warriors 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 14W–5L | 74% |
| Warriors | 12W–11L | 52% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 14 of 19 games (74%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 23 (52%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Warriors get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sharks's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.6pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 0.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.8pts |
| 1680.2m | Run Metres | 1634.8m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 321.4 | Tackles | 373.6 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 24.6 |
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Warriors | 8 – 10 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R5 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R26 | Sharks | 28 – 30 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R1 | Warriors | 12 – 16 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R20 | Warriors | 44 – 12 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 11th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Tuivasa-Sheck, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th) | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 12th) | 0.83/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 13 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 165m/g | 204m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 27 | 21 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 720m/g | 649m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 12.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81% | 82.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 6 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 554m/g | 553m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.67) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | no games | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 7/11g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 9 in 8g | 9/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 3/3g | 45% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 5 | Mawene Hiroti | WG | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 12/17g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | CE | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 67' 77' |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1560 vs 1554), but the market favours Sharks (@1.45). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1554 · Warriors 1560 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1055 (best 1277) | 1059 (best 1304) | Warriors +4 |
| Backs | 889 (best 1035) | 944 (best 1131) | Warriors +56 |
| Halves | 1019 (best 1019) | 1260 (best 1260) | Warriors +240 |
| Hooker | 910 | 600 | Sharks +310 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Sharks predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)