Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 70% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. Raiders trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–12. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
70%
Rabbitohs
30%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 204-point ELO rating advantage (1612 vs 1408). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Raiders by 7.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Line / Spread
Raiders -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W L | 24.4 |
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Raiders
23.2
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
2.8
Raiders
-4.4
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1701
Raiders
1651
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
4.8
Raiders
3.4
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Raiders 7W–8L (47%) and Rabbitohs 5W–7L (42%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Raiders get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -0.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Raiders predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.8
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