AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 70% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48 — within 5 points. Raiders trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–12. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
70%
Rabbitohs
30%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 204-point ELO rating advantage (1612 vs 1408). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Raiders by 7.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Line / Spread
Raiders -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWWL | 24.4 |
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Raiders
23.2
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
2.8
Raiders
-4.4
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1701
Raiders
1651
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
4.8
Raiders
3.4
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Todd Smith officiates — Raiders 6W–8L (43%) and Rabbitohs 5W–6L (45%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Raiders predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.8
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