# Raiders v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 36 – 12 Rabbitohs

_Raiders hit back to pillage Rabbitohs._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 70% / Rabbitohs 30% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 08 June, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Ethan Strange (38'), Ethan Strange (49'), Zac Hosking (58'), Simi Sasagi (66'), Josh Papalii (70'), Josh Papalii (73') · Rabbitohs: Keaon Koloamatangi (4' 1st), Alex Johnston (14' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 70% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 36–12 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 14 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a footy match. Look after the ball and let the errors pile up on the other side, or kick it away and trust your defence to win the territory battle. At GIO Stadium, the Raiders picked the first option and the Rabbitohs picked the second, and by full time it was Raiders 36, Rabbitohs 12.

The Rabbitohs actually had the better start. Keaon Koloamatangi crossed in the 4th minute, Alex Johnston added another in the 14th, and South Sydney led 12-0 before the Raiders had troubled the scoreboard. They took a 12-6 lead into the sheds off the back of that early burst, kicking for 911 metres to Canberra's 701 and trying to strangle the game through territory.

Then the ball control took over. Ethan Strange crossed twice either side of half-time, in the 37th and 49th minutes, to drag Canberra back into it, and from there it was one way traffic. Zac Hosking in the 57th, Simi Sasagi in the 65th, and Josh Papalii with a double in the 69th and 72nd turned a two-point game into a 24-point rout inside half an hour of football.

The stat sheet tells you exactly why. Canberra completed at 86% to Souths' 72%, and coughed up the ball just 6 times against 11 Rabbitohs errors. That's the ball control paying off in the only currency that matters, more chances with the footy in hand. They also broke the line 7 times to 3 and racked up 646 post-contact metres, evidence a stronger forward pack was doing its job exactly as the pre-match numbers suggested it might, with Canberra rated 1144 to 1091 up front.

Where it really got away from South Sydney was in the halves. Canberra came in rated 1364 to 606 in that department, about as lopsided a number as you'll see, and it showed. Strange's double either side of the break was the individual difference, and Papalii's late brace put a gloss on the scoreline that the contest didn't really have by that stage.

Souths didn't help themselves. Missing 37 tackles to Canberra's 29 is not how you protect a lead built on early tries, and 11 errors against a side completing at 86% was always going to be costly. The kick game was there, the ambition with ball in hand mostly wasn't, and once Canberra's completion rate started translating into field position, the Rabbitohs' defence had nowhere to hide.

Alphr's model had Canberra as 70% favourites and picked the right side, no argument there. The margin was where it fell over, tipping Raiders by 7.8 when the final gap was 24, and the model finished 3 from 16 on this one. The total of 43 was closer to the mark, with the game finishing on 48. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed under both.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6 | 30 | 36 |
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,878** | Run metres | 1,468 |
| **646** | Post-contact metres | 457 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **5** | Offloads | 1 |
| **92.7%** | Effective tackle % | 90.4% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **6** | Errors | 11 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| 701 | Kick metres | **911** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 70% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. Raiders trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–12. The model went 3/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47. Raiders's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Raiders have a 41% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 14' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 49' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 57' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 65' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 69' Try — Josh Papalii (Raiders) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 72' Try — Josh Papalii (Raiders) — 34-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.40 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 70.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 70% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 204 ELO points clear, 1612 to 1408. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 7.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 34-24 in 2026 Round 20.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 6, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Raiders 2nd against Rabbitohs 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 8 · Rabbitohs 2 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 34-24 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 2nd · Rabbitohs 9th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 7W–10L | 41% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–9L | 36% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Raiders hold a 5-point edge: 7W–10L (41%) vs Rabbitohs's 5W–9L (36%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Raiders get a +-0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 1700.8m | Run Metres | 1650.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 335.8 | Tackles | 357.0 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 24.4 |
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Raiders | 34 – 24 | Rabbitohs |
| 2026 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 34 – 36 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R21 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R13 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 33 | Raiders |
| 2022 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 32 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 1st there (0.92 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 3rd there (0.77 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.54/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.23/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.23/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 5 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 32 | 22 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 681m/g | 643m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.3/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 9 | 8 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 592m/g | 498m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 88.9% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.27) +59% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.17) +59% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/17g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 16/43g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 19/45g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 2/2g | 15/25g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 22% | — | 🏉 38' 49' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 3/31g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 28/126g | 8% | — | 🏉 70' 73' |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 5/50g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 10/87g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/5g | 23/55g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/9g | 22% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/38g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 8% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/25g | 4% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 3/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·2·0·1·0·1·3) | 9/12g | 4/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 28/106g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 3/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/36g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1612 · Rabbitohs 1408 · ELO difference: 204 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1144 (best 1263) | 1091 (best 1317) | Raiders +53 |
| Backs | 976 (best 1037) | 1080 (best 1200) | Rabbitohs +104 |
| Halves | 1364 (best 1364) | 606 (best 606) | Raiders +758 |
| Hooker | 1055 | 1200 | Rabbitohs +145 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Raiders predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)