Win Probability
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 57% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. Knights trailed 0–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Knights bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 40% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
43%
Sea Eagles
57%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 157-point ELO rating advantage (1511 vs 1354). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 5.5 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.53
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W L L L | 17.4 |
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
16.4
Knights
16.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
1.0
Knights
5.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1848
Knights
1659
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.8
Knights
5.0
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 2W–3L (40%) vs Knights's 2W–5L (29%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Sea Eagles).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sea Eagles get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -5.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.