# Knights v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 26 – 22 Sea Eagles

_Knights rally to lay siege to Sea Eagles from 16 down._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 43% / Sea Eagles 57% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Thu, 05 June, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (45' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Hunt (54'), James Schiller (62' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (75' Tipped ⚡), Kalyn Ponga (82') · Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Toafofoa Sipley (27'), Haumole Olakau'atu (34' Tipped ⚡), Tommy Talau (67' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 57% | Lost |
| Knights | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 26–22 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 14 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen points down at the break and Newcastle looked cooked. Sea Eagles had scored through Tolutau Koula in the 12th minute, Toafofoa Sipley in the 26th and Haumole Olakau'atu in the 33rd, and Knights had nothing to show for the first forty. Manly's halves rating of 1431 against Newcastle's 973 going in explained plenty of it. On that form, 0-16 looked like the start of a rout, not the setup for one of the more unlikely comebacks of the round.

Then the Knights turned up. Fletcher Sharpe crossed in the 45th minute to get the board moving, Fletcher Hunt followed in the 53rd, and by the 61st James Schiller had the scores locked at 16-16. Three tries in sixteen minutes, and a game that had been dead in the water was suddenly anyone's.

Manly weren't done either. Tommy Talau restored the lead in the 67th to make it 16-20, and for a few minutes it looked like Newcastle's surge might count for nothing. But Sharpe grabbed his second in the 74th to edge the Knights back in front, and Kalyn Ponga sealed it in the 81st for the final scoreline of 26-22.

The stat sheet tells you Manly probably should have won this. Sea Eagles held 53% of possession, completed at 84% against Newcastle's 73%, and coughed the ball up just 9 times to 11. They out-ran the Knights on post-contact metres, 642 to 498, and cracked eight line breaks to six. They were even the more disciplined side, conceding only 2 penalties to Newcastle's 5. In most games those numbers add up to a comfortable win, not a four-point loss.

What kept Newcastle in it was the stuff that doesn't show up in the completion column. Ten offloads to three is a big gap, and it points to a Knights forward pack that kept the ball alive after contact even while getting beaten on metres. Thirty-seven tackle breaks to 32 backs that up. And on defence, Newcastle's effective tackle rate of 91.5% against Manly's 87.5% mattered plenty once the tries started flowing their way in the second half.

Manly came in with the better recent form, three wins from five to Newcastle's two, and a much healthier average margin of 5.2 points to the Knights' 1. Their halves and forward pack ratings were both comfortably ahead too. All of that showed up in the first forty. It just didn't survive the second.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles favourites at 57%, tipping them by 5.5 points in a game worth 50 combined. The actual margin came in at 4, the total at 48, both close enough to call the pre-match read a sound one even though it backed the wrong team home. The model finished 7 from 16 on the card, with the over on 43.5 landing as the one clean win.

Newcastle will take it and not ask too many questions. Trailing by 16 at the break and winning by 4 isn't a formula anyone plans for, it's just what happened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 0 | 26 | 26 |
| Sea Eagles | 16 | 6 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,812 | Run metres | **1,883** |
| 498 | Post-contact metres | **642** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| **10** | Offloads | 3 |
| **91.5%** | Effective tackle % | 87.5% |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **817** | Kick metres | 806 |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 57% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. Knights trailed 0–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. The model went 7/16 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Knights bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 50% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 26' Try — Toafofoa Sipley (Sea Eagles) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 33' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 45' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 53' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 61' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 67' Try — Tommy Talau (Sea Eagles) — 16-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 74' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 20-22 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 81' Try — Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — 26-22 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.53 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 57%, but Knights stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 157 ELO points clear, 1511 to 1354. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 5 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-24 in 2026 Round 25.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Knights 15th against Sea Eagles 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 5 · Sea Eagles 4 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-24 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 15th · Sea Eagles 7th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–7L | 30% |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–3L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Sea Eagles have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Knights's 3 from 10 (30%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Sea Eagles).

Knights get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Sea Eagles's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.4pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| 1.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.2pts |
| 1848.4m | Run Metres | 1659.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 387.6 | Tackles | 342.8 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–3L | 17.4 |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Knights | 24 – 44 | Sea Eagles |
| 2026 | R2 | Sea Eagles | 16 – 36 | Knights |
| 2024 | R19 | Sea Eagles | 44 – 6 | Knights |
| 2023 | R13 | Knights | 28 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R5 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 32 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 17th-ranked middle attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 12th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Sharpe, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 2nd there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.92/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.58/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 200m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 87.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 31 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 782m/g | 729m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.2/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.6% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 7 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 554m/g | 531m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.16) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 30/57g | 18% | — | 🏉 82' |
| 2 | James Schiller | CE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/6g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 25/101g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Hunt | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 11/10g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 75' |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 10/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/47g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Brodie Jones | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/40g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 0/2g | 5/22g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 7% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/35g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Cant | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Clayton Faulalo | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (4·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 2/5g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Talau | WG | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 3/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 1/8g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Lachlan Croker | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 4/6g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jazz Tevaga | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Brown | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1354 · Sea Eagles 1511 · ELO difference: 157 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1112 (best 1261) | 1207 (best 1322) | Sea Eagles +95 |
| Backs | 1015 (best 1147) | 1050 (best 1153) | Sea Eagles +35 |
| Halves | 973 (best 973) | 1431 (best 1431) | Sea Eagles +458 |
| Hooker | 1047 | 627 | Knights +420 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)