NRL | Round 14

alphr.com.au

DOL
Dolphins
VS
SGI
Dragons
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • FRIDAY 6 JUNE, 8:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Dolphins's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.9 but the actual margin was 50 points. The game's 62 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 42. Dolphins led 28–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 50. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

61%DolphinsFavourite

Dolphins

61%

Dragons

39%

AI Match Overview

Dolphins hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Dolphins carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1436). The margin model predicts Dolphins by 5.9 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Dolphins to Win @1.60

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.1%

Line / Spread

Dolphins -4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.1%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.9%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Dolphins
WWLLL
26.0
Dragons
WWLLL
22.0

Avg Conceded

23.2

Dolphins

25.4

Dragons

Avg Margin

2.8

Dolphins

-3.4

Dragons

Run Metres

1653

Dolphins

1690

Dragons

Line Breaks

4.2

Dolphins

5.6

Dragons

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

DOL
27%3W 8L
SGI
31%10W 22L

Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Dolphins 3W–8L (27%) and Dragons 10W–22L (31%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dolphins an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.6 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 4)Tied 2-2
Jul 2024DOL 6 - 26 SGI
Mar 2024DOL 38 - 0 SGI
Jun 2023DOL 26 - 12 SGI
Apr 2023DOL 12 - 38 SGI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL
1523Overall1436
SGI
ELO difference: +87 in favour of Dolphins

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1147Forwards1192
Best: 1236SGI +45Best: 1346
1042Backs1106
Best: 1185SGI +64Best: 1138
1215Halves1094
Best: 1215DOL +121Best: 1094
1048Hooker1200
SGI +152

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL
Stat
SGI
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
26.0pts
Avg Score
22.0pts
23.2pts
Avg Conceded
25.4pts
2.8pts
Avg Margin
-3.4pts
1653.2m
Run Metres
1690.4m
4.2
Line Breaks
5.6
367.2
Tackles
362.0
10.4
Errors
11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Dolphins
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Halves Control9.0%
Dolphins
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Dolphins
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dolphins

Model Confidence

61%

Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +5.9

2/3 match predictions correct
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