# Dolphins v Dragons — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 56 – 6 Dragons

_Dolphins run riot over Dragons._

Half time: 28 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 61% / Dragons 39% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 06 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jamayne Isaako (14' Tipped ⚡), Kodi Nikorima (21'), Connelly Lemuelu (30'), Jack Bostock (38' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (42'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (46' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (56' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (58' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (80' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Dragons: Valentine Holmes (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 61% | Won |
| Dragons | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 50 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 56–6 Dragons in NRL Round 14 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with the run metres: 2,234 to 1,132, almost double, and that's your ball game. Dolphins put Dragons away 56-6 at Suncorp Stadium, and once you see that yardage gap the scoreboard stops being a surprise.

Dolphins led 28-2 at half-time and didn't let up. Herbie Farnworth got things moving inside the first ten minutes, and from there it was a procession: Jamayne Isaako in twice, Kodi Nikorima, Connelly Lemuelu with a double, Jack Bostock, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow crossing twice of his own. Ten tries in all. Valentine Holmes got Dragons on the board in the second half, but by then the margin was already out past 40.

The timeline tells the story better than any highlights package could. Dolphins scored in the 10th, 13th, 20th, 29th, 37th and 41st minutes, six tries before the break was even reached, and it was 32-2 by half-time whistle territory. Dragons had no answer to the pace of it. Two more after the break made it 48-2 before Holmes finally cracked the Dolphins line in the 63rd.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Dolphins held 60% of the ball and completed at 86% to the Dragons' 78%, so they simply had more possession and did more with it. Eight line breaks to three, 27 tackle breaks to 22, and 635 post-contact metres tell you the Dolphins forwards were getting quick ball and the backs were finishing it off. Dragons actually tackled better on paper, 88.9% to 85.1%, and conceded fewer penalties, 2 to 7. Didn't matter. When you're missing 27 tackles to the opposition's 22 and losing the collision by that much territory, the effective tackle percentage is just a number on a stat sheet nobody reads afterwards.

The pre-match numbers hinted at this without quite predicting the scale of it. Dolphins came in with the stronger halves rating, 1215 to 1094, and that showed up in how easily they found space through the middle. Dragons had the edge at hooker, 1200 to 1048, and up front, 1192 to 1147, but neither showed up where it counted. Recent form had these two closely matched, two wins apiece in the last five, Dolphins averaging 26 points and conceding 23.2, Dragons on 22 scored and 25.4 conceded. Nothing in that history said blowout.

Alphr's model backed Dolphins at 61%, with an expected margin of 5.9 and a total near 42. The lean was right, the margin wasn't close. A 50-point win says the model undercooked how dominant Dolphins would be with the ball, and the actual total of 62 points ran 20 higher than forecast. Went 7 from 16 on the finer detail of this one, which is a rough night by the numbers even with the winner picked correctly.

Dragons will look at the discipline column and find some comfort, fewer penalties and a better tackle percentage on paper. Everything else on the sheet says they were run off their feet, and 56-6 is what that looks like on the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 28 | 28 | 56 |
| Dragons | 2 | 4 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **60%** | Possession | 40% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **2,234** | Run metres | 1,132 |
| **635** | Post-contact metres | 400 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **27** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| 85.1% | Effective tackle % | **88.9%** |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| **7** | Errors | 10 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **544** | Kick metres | 474 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.9 but the actual margin was 50 points. The game's 62 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 42. Dolphins led 28–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 50. The model went 7/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Dolphins's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Dolphins have a 41% win rate under this referee. Dolphins's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 13' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 8-2 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 20' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 14-2 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 29' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 20-2 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 37' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 26-2 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 41' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 32-2 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 46' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 38-2 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 44-2 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 58' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 48-2 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 63' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 50-6 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 54-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.60 (edge -6.1%) — model probability 61.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 61%, but Dragons stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 87 ELO points clear, 1523 to 1436.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Dolphins by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 4 of the last 6 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 28-22 in 2026 Round 22.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 10th against Dragons 8th.

Dolphins come in fresher, 15 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Dolphins 4 · Dragons 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 28-22 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 10th · Dragons 8th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Rest gap | Dolphins 15d · Dragons 7d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 7W–10L | 41% |
| Dragons | 10W–25L | 29% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Dolphins hold a 12-point edge: 7W–10L (41%) vs Dragons's 10W–25L (29%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 1653.2m | Run Metres | 1690.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 367.2 | Tackles | 362.0 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 26.0 |
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Dragons | 22 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R17 | Dragons | 26 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R2 | Dolphins | 38 – 0 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R13 | Dolphins | 26 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R5 | Dragons | 38 – 12 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.08 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 13th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 8th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 8th) | 1.27/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.08/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 7th) | 1.73/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) | 0.73/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 4 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 206m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 27 | 27 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 735m/g | 765m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.2/g | 16/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 4 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 491m/g | 480m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 92.8% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.45) +42% · Fullbacks 0.56/g (lg 0.43) +30%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.67) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·1·2·0·1) | 5/7g | 15/23g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 58' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 28/68g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 56' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/7g | 8/19g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/5g | 22/58g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' 80' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/17g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 20/76g | 20% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/35g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | Replacement | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/21g | 24% | — | 🏉 30' 42' |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 6/34g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/21g | 8% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/2g | 8/15g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Nathan Lawson | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/13g | 40% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 7 in 5g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·1·3·1·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 3/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack De Belin | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Toby Couchman | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/10g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.80 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Raymond Faitala-Mariner | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1523 · Dragons 1436 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1147 (best 1236) | 1192 (best 1346) | Dragons +45 |
| Backs | 1042 (best 1185) | 1106 (best 1138) | Dragons +64 |
| Halves | 1215 (best 1215) | 1094 (best 1094) | Dolphins +121 |
| Hooker | 1048 | 1200 | Dragons +152 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)