Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.9 but the actual margin was 50 points. The game's 62 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 42. Dolphins led 28–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 50. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Dolphins's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Dolphins have a 36% win rate under this referee. Dolphins's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
61%
Dragons
39%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Dolphins carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1436). The margin model predicts Dolphins by 5.9 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.1%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W L L L | 26.0 |
Dragons | W W L L L | 22.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.2
Dolphins
25.4
Dragons
Avg Margin
2.8
Dolphins
-3.4
Dragons
Run Metres
1653
Dolphins
1690
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.2
Dolphins
5.6
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Dolphins hold a 7-point edge: 5W–9L (36%) vs Dragons's 10W–24L (29%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Dragons get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's +0.0. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +5.9
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