Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 7.3 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Bulldogs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
67%
Eels
33%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Bulldogs carry a 169-point ELO rating advantage (1564 vs 1395). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.3 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.0%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.0%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 24.0 |
Eels | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.8
Bulldogs
16.4
Eels
Avg Margin
-4.8
Bulldogs
4.0
Eels
Run Metres
1518
Bulldogs
1796
Eels
Line Breaks
4.4
Bulldogs
5.8
Eels
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Bulldogs 15W–26L (37%) and Eels 14W–24L (37%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Bulldogs get a +-0.6 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's -1.9. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +7.3
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