# Bulldogs v Eels — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 30 – 12 Eels

_Bulldogs let the dogs loose on Eels._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 67% / Eels 33% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Mon, 09 June, 04:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Matt Burton (7' 1st), Marcelo Montoya (20' Tipped ⚡), Viliame Kikau (61' Tipped ⚡), Harry Hayes (68'), Lachlan Galvin (73') · Eels: Mitchell Moses (11'), Dylan Walker (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 67% | Won |
| Eels | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 30–12 Eels in NRL Round 14 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs led for most of the night, but not by much, and not until deep in the second half did the margin actually mean anything. Final score 30-12 flatters the chase considerably. At half-time it was locked 12-12, and Accor Stadium had every right to think this one was still up for grabs.

The scoreboard swung early. Matt Burton opened it in the 7th minute, Mitchell Moses hit back four minutes later to make it 6-4, and Marcelo Montoya restored the Bulldogs' buffer at 19' for 10-6. Then in the 35th minute, two things happened almost together: Viliame Kikau was sin-binned, and Dylan Walker crossed to trim it back to 12-10. Somehow the Eels found the gear to level it up by the break. A tight, scrappy arm-wrestle, decided by nothing more than who blinked last.

Whoever it was, it wasn't the Bulldogs. From the 60th minute they simply put the foot down. Kikau, back from the bin, scored to make it 18-12. Harry Hayes followed at 68' for 22-12. Lachlan Galvin capped it at 73' for 28-12. Thirteen minutes, three tries, game over. The Eels never got another look at the lead after half-time, and by full time it wasn't really a contest.

The stat sheet explains why the pressure told in the end. Bulldogs held 60% of the ball and completed at 90%, against an Eels completion rate of just 67% and 16 errors to 10. That's the sort of discipline gap that eventually shows up on the board, even if it takes forty minutes to bite. Run metres went 2,284 to 1,329, post-contact metres 710 to 438, and Bulldogs broke the line six times to two. The Eels missed 38 tackles to the Bulldogs' 26, and that's where six line breaks and 16 offloads come from.

Individually it was a full team effort up front. Matt Burton, Marcelo Montoya, Viliame Kikau, Harry Hayes and Lachlan Galvin all crossed, five different names on the sheet, which tells its own story about go-forward. The Eels leaned on Mitchell Moses and Dylan Walker for their points and got little else going once the Bulldogs found their range after the break.

Form lines suggested this might go the other way. The Eels came in with the better halves rating, 1228 to 1173, a stronger hooker in the ratings and better recent line-break numbers, 5.8 to 4.4 over the last five. But none of that showed up in this one. The Bulldogs' 3-2 win record over their last five outweighed the raw numbers on the night, and their forward edge in the collisions did the rest.

Alphr's model had Bulldogs favourites at 67% and predicted a 7.3-point win in a 40-point game. The final margin was 18, and the total finished at 42, so the model undercooked the gap but had the shape of the contest about right. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line comfortably, and the under on 44.5 landed too. Not a bad read on a match that spent 40 minutes even before it wasn't.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| Eels | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **60%** | Possession | 40% |
| **90%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **2,284** | Run metres | 1,329 |
| **710** | Post-contact metres | 438 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| **16** | Offloads | 6 |
| **87.9%** | Effective tackle % | 85.6% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| **10** | Errors | 16 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **667** | Kick metres | 657 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 7.3 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Bulldogs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 11' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 19' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Sin Bin — Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) — 10-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Dylan Walker (Eels) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 60' Try — Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 68' Try — Harry Hayes (Bulldogs) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 73' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.40 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 67% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 169 ELO points clear, 1564 to 1395. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 40. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 1st against Eels 16th.

Bulldogs come in fresher, 17 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 5 · Eels 5 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 14-12 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 1st · Eels 16th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Eels 0% |
| Rest gap | Bulldogs 17d · Eels 7d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16W–28L | 36% |
| Eels | 14W–27L | 34% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Bulldogs 16W–28L (36%) and Eels 14W–27L (34%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Bulldogs's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1518.0m | Run Metres | 1795.6m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 361.8 | Tackles | 361.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 24.0 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Bulldogs | 14 – 12 | Eels |
| 2026 | R7 | Eels | 38 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R3 | Eels | 8 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R14 | Bulldogs | 22 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R1 | Eels | 26 – 8 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 15th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 12th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.91/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 12th) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.82/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.55/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 181m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 23 | 23 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 761m/g | 748m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.5% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 7 | 6 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 455m/g | 453m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.53/g (lg 0.44) +20% · Centres 0.78/g (lg 0.67) +16% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/15g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 1/6g | 7/24g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 5/15g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 12/21g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/8g | 9/30g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 11/29g | 18% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 1/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/40g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/13g | 5/23g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| 12 | Josh Curran | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/15g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 8/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Bailey Hayward | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 3% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 16 | Lipoi Hopoi | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kurtis Morrin | Replacement | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/21g | 8% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/9g | 1/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 4/7g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 9/7g | 23/26g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/23g | 7/58g | 28% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 7/17g | 4% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 17 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1564 · Eels 1395 · ELO difference: 169 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1073 (best 1278) | 1075 (best 1288) | Eels +2 |
| Backs | 832 (best 981) | 974 (best 1088) | Eels +142 |
| Halves | 1173 (best 1173) | 1228 (best 1228) | Eels +54 |
| Hooker | 925 | 1170 | Eels +245 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)