# Broncos v Titans — NRL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 44 – 14 Titans

_Broncos charge down Titans._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 71% / Titans 29% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 07 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Gehamat Shibasaki (1' 1st Tipped ⚡), Corey Jensen (11'), Kotoni Staggs (18'), Gehamat Shibasaki (20' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josiah Karapani (28'), Josiah Karapani (57'), Reece Walsh (74' Tipped ⚡), Reece Walsh (76' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Alofiana Khan-Pereira (53' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (68' Tipped ⚡), Arama Hau (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 71% | Won |
| Titans | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.5 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 44–14 Titans in NRL Round 14 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos led 28-0 at the break, and that number tells you almost everything about how this one went. Five tries inside the first 28 minutes, no reply, game basically decided before half-time drinks.

Gehamat Shibasaki got things moving in the 1st minute, and by the time he'd crossed again in the 20th, Broncos had also found the line through Corey Jensen and Kotoni Staggs. Josiah Karapani added a fifth just before the break. Four different scorers, zero points against, and Suncorp Stadium watching a procession.

The second half was tidier for the Titans but nowhere near enough. Alofiana Khan-Pereira crossed twice, in the 52nd and 67th minutes, and Arama Hau got one late in the 78th, but Broncos kept answering. Karapani grabbed his second in the 57th, then Reece Walsh scored twice in three minutes either side of the 75th to push it out to 44-8 before Hau's try just tidied up the final margin. Final score: 44-14.

Look at the stat sheet and it's a genuinely odd split. Titans were the cleaner side with ball in hand, completing at 83% to Broncos's 79% and coughing up only 9 errors to 13. Doesn't matter much when you can't turn the ball into points. Broncos broke the line nine times to three, racked up 39 tackle breaks to 32, and Titans missed 39 tackles against Broncos's 32. Add in 604 kick metres to 412 and Broncos were living in the right end of the field all day.

The pre-match ratings had this coming, in shape if not in size. Broncos's halves rated 1188 to the Titans' 1005, and the gap at hooker was even bigger, 940 to 600. That kind of edge in the spine usually shows up in line breaks and quick ball, and it did. Forward packs were rated dead even at 1071 apiece, so this was won out the back, not up front.

Individually, Shibasaki's early double set the tone, Karapani's brace either side of half-time kept the foot down, and Walsh's late double put a bow on it. Titans's response was built almost entirely around Khan-Pereira, who found the line twice, but two tries from one man was never going to cover a 28-point hole.

Alphr's model had Broncos winning at 71% and got the result right, but the margin read was well off, tipping Broncos by 9.5 when the actual gap was 30 points. Broncos did cover the 8.5-point line, and the model finished 5 from 16 on the match overall.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 28 | 16 | 44 |
| Titans | 0 | 14 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 79% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| **1,841** | Run metres | 1,577 |
| **566** | Post-contact metres | 547 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| 8 | Offloads | **9** |
| **87.0%** | Effective tackle % | 85.8% |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| 13 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **604** | Kick metres | 412 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.5 but the actual margin was 30 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 15 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 10' Try — Corey Jensen (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 17' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 28' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 52' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 28-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 57' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 32-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 67' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 32-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 36-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 42-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — Arama Hau (Titans) — 44-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.40 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 70.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 10 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 71% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 67 ELO points clear, 1388 to 1321.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Broncos by 9.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 28-23 in 2026 Round 14.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 11th against Titans 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 6 · Titans 4 |
| Last meeting | Titans 28-23 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 11th · Titans 17th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 100% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 29W–22L | 57% |
| Titans | 10W–16L | 38% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 51 games (57%), significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 26 (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Titans get a +-0.0 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | -15.2pts |
| 1633.8m | Run Metres | 1566.6m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 360.6 | Tackles | 354.4 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 1W–4L | 19.2 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Broncos | 23 – 28 | Titans |
| 2026 | R5 | Titans | 12 – 26 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R19 | Titans | 14 – 26 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R22 | Titans | 46 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R12 | Broncos | 34 – 36 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2.27 conceded/game). Key man: Staggs, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 12th-ranked right edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.27/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 9th) | 1.36/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.64/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.91/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.27/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 9 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 114m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 83.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 28 | 21 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 661m/g | 635m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.2/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.8% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 8 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 594m/g | 571m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.36/g (lg 0.17) +112% · Fullbacks 0.69/g (lg 0.43) +60% · 2nd Rows 0.71/g (lg 0.45) +58%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.67) +6% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 14/28g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' 76' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 36/72g | 28% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 5/13g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 1' 20' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 11 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 17/44g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/6g | 16/30g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 8/53g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/44g | 2% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/36g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 8/74g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 13/59g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/60g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 8/46g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/50g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Benjamin Te Kura | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 3 in 6g | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 9/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 68' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 9/19g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·2) | 6/10g | 6/13g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Allan Fitzgibbon | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 3/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Weaver | Replacement | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/12g | 0/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sean Mullany | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 4/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 5/9g | 36% | — | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Arama Hau | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 78' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1388 · Titans 1321 · ELO difference: 67 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1071 (best 1309) | 1071 (best 1310) | Even |
| Backs | 1048 (best 1162) | 989 (best 1115) | Broncos +59 |
| Halves | 1188 (best 1188) | 1005 (best 1005) | Broncos +182 |
| Hooker | 940 | 600 | Broncos +340 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Broncos predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)