Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 64% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 26 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 17 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Raiders have a 52% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
64%
Raiders
36%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Recent form favours Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Raiders.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.8%
Line / Spread
Warriors -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.8%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W W W W | 21.4 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 30.0 |
Avg Conceded
16.4
Warriors
24.4
Raiders
Avg Margin
5.0
Warriors
5.6
Raiders
Run Metres
1639
Warriors
1683
Raiders
Line Breaks
4.0
Warriors
5.8
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Raiders hold a 5-point edge: 22W–20L (52%) vs Warriors's 15W–17L (47%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Warriors get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1569), but the market favours Warriors (@1.65).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Warriors predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +0.3
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