# Warriors v Raiders — NRL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 10 – 16 Raiders

_Raiders survive a scare against Warriors._

Half time: 8 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 64% / Raiders 36% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sun, 25 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (23' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Tom Starling (32'), Jamal Fogarty (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 64% | Lost |
| Raiders | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 10–16 Raiders in NRL Round 12 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight-all at the break, and nothing about that scoreline suggested Canberra were about to cut loose. They didn't need to. Raiders closed it out 16-10 at Go Media Stadium, and the shift from a deadlocked first half to a six-point win came down to who handled the ball better when it counted.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck got the Warriors moving in the 23rd minute, finishing off his own line break for the game's first points. Fourteen minutes later, Raiders hooker Tom Starling crossed to get Canberra on the board, sandwiched around a 27th-minute sin bin for Corey Horsburgh that the Warriors never quite cashed in on. By half-time it was 8-8, honours even, everything to play for.

The second half belonged to Canberra. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad spent ten minutes in the bin from the 58th minute, and four minutes into that spell Jamal Fogarty barged over to put the Raiders in front for good, 14-10. Starling copped his own sin bin late, in the 77th, but by then the damage was long done and the Warriors had nothing left to chase it down with.

The stat sheet tells you why Canberra held their nerve. Raiders ran 52% of the possession and completed at 77% to the Warriors' 75%, but the real gap was in ball security: 10 errors against 14. Every time the Warriors coughed it up, Canberra had another shot at the line, and it showed in three line breaks to two and 34 tackle breaks to 30. Post-contact metres favoured Canberra too, 574 to 552, a small edge but the kind that adds up over eighty minutes of collisions.

Discipline cut the other way. The Warriors gave away just 7 penalties to the Raiders' 10, and their kicking game was the one clear point of superiority, 577 metres to 458. Problem was, territory without ball control doesn't win you six-point arm-wrestles. Canberra were happy to let the Warriors have the field position if it meant fewer errors and more line-break chances of their own.

The form line and the ratings both pointed to a tighter home effort than what turned up. Warriors carried the stronger halves rating into this one, 1346 to 1223, and had won five of their last five coming in. But Canberra's forwards (1044 to 964) and particularly their backs (1154 to 949) were rated well clear, and across the last five they'd been outscoring opponents by an average of 30 points to the Warriors' 21.4. That gap in strike power showed up exactly when it needed to, in the third quarter passages either side of the two sin bins.

Alphr's model had this one close, Warriors favourites at 64% and a predicted margin of just 0.3 points. The final six-point margin wasn't far off that read at all. Where the model missed badly was the total: 43 points projected, 26 delivered, a 17-point overshoot that left this one 2 from 16 on the night. The under 45.5 call, at least, landed exactly as expected.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| Raiders | 8 | 8 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,617 | Run metres | **1,647** |
| 552 | Post-contact metres | **574** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 4 | Offloads | **5** |
| 89.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.9%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| **577** | Kick metres | 458 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 64% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 26 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 2/16 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 17 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 23' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Sin Bin — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 31' Try — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 58' Sin Bin — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 62' Try — Jamal Fogarty (Raiders) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 77' Sin Bin — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.65 (edge +8.8%) — model probability 64.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 0 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 64%, but Raiders stay live at 36%. Form leans Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Raiders.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Warriors 3, Raiders 6.

On the ladder it's Warriors 2nd against Raiders 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 2nd · Raiders 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 17W–20L | 46% |
| Raiders | 22W–22L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Warriors 17W–20L (46%) and Raiders 22W–22L (50%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.4pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1638.6m | Run Metres | 1683.2m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 368.6 | Tackles | 333.8 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 5W–0L | 21.4 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Warriors | 40 – 6 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R1 | Raiders | 30 – 8 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R20 | Raiders | 20 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R3 | Warriors | 18 – 10 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R21 | Warriors | 21 – 20 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.82 conceded/game). Key man: Pompey, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.18 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 10th there (1.3 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 10th) | 2.18/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 7th) | 1.36/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 4 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 153m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 22 | 30 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 643m/g | 677m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.7/g | 19.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 19 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 570m/g | 602m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 12/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.17) +65% · Centres 0.97/g (lg 0.67) +45% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.43) +2% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Wingers 1.2/g (lg 1.25) -4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 6/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 9/17g | 17/26g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 4/25g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 3/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/17g | 11/48g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 9/20g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/5g | 5/12g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jackson Ford | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/21g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Bunty Afoa | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/45g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 25% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | PR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 5/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 3% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·3) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Simi Sasagi | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Noah Martin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/28g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1569), but the market favours Warriors (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1569 · Raiders 1569 · ELO difference: 0 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 964 (best 1244) | 1044 (best 1309) | Raiders +79 |
| Backs | 949 (best 1073) | 1154 (best 1214) | Raiders +206 |
| Halves | 1346 (best 1346) | 1223 (best 1223) | Warriors +122 |
| Hooker | 1082 | 1084 | Raiders +2 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Warriors favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)