AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 17 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 64% prediction for Warriors — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 26 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
64%
Raiders
36%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Recent form favours Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Raiders.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.8%
Line / Spread
Warriors -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.8%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWWWW | 21.4 |
Raiders | WWWWL | 30.0 |
Avg Conceded
16.4
Warriors
24.4
Raiders
Avg Margin
5.0
Warriors
5.6
Raiders
Run Metres
1639
Warriors
1683
Raiders
Line Breaks
4.0
Warriors
5.8
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Warriors 15W–16L (48%) and Raiders 21W–19L (53%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1569), but the market favours Warriors (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Warriors predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +0.3
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