Win Probability
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 64% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 26 points. Roosters led 20–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 15 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
36%
Sharks
64%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Sharks carry a 123-point ELO rating advantage (1609 vs 1486). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.8 points with a combined total of 51.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
-12.4%
Line / Spread
Sharks +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-12.4%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Sharks | W W W W L | 28.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Roosters
18.4
Sharks
Avg Margin
3.2
Roosters
9.8
Sharks
Run Metres
1673
Roosters
1744
Sharks
Line Breaks
5.8
Roosters
4.2
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 10-point edge: 35W–21L (63%) vs Sharks's 17W–15L (53%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Roosters get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sharks's -1.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 51 · Line: -4.8
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