Win Probability
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 61% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 19 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 11 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Knights's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Knights have a 75% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
61%
Knights
39%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Panthers carry a 196-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1330). Recent form favours Panthers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Panthers by 4.1 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.34
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.6%
Line / Spread
Panthers -8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.6%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W W L L L | 24.8 |
Knights | W L L L L | 16.4 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Panthers
23.2
Knights
Avg Margin
3.6
Panthers
-6.8
Knights
Run Metres
1755
Panthers
1783
Knights
Line Breaks
4.2
Panthers
5.0
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsBelinda Sharpe
23 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Knights have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Panthers's 0 from 3 (0%). Small sample (3 games for Panthers).
Avg Total
42.1 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.52
SB Away %
33%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Knights get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Panthers's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Panthers predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.1
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