# Panthers v Knights — NRL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 6 – 25 Knights

_Knights conquer Panthers._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 61% / Knights 39% · Carrington Park, Bathurst · Sat, 24 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Harrison Hassett (58') · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Lucas (10' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Lucas (12' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Lucas (24' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 61% | Lost |
| Knights | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 6–25 Knights in NRL Round 12 at Carrington Park, Bathurst. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

By the 23rd minute the Knights had already put this one out of reach. Three tries from Dylan Lucas and one from Fletcher Sharpe had Newcastle up 22-0 before Penrith had so much as troubled the scoreboard, and it never got competitive from there. Final score: Panthers 6, Knights 25, at Carrington Park.

The damage was done early and it kept compounding. Sharpe opened the account in the 4th minute, Lucas struck twice inside the next seven to make it 16-0, and by the 23rd he'd completed his hat-trick. Penrith lost Liam Henry to the sin bin at the 22nd minute right in the middle of that spell, which did nothing to help a defence already under siege. Newcastle led 24-0 at the break and the second half was essentially a formality, Harrison Hassett's try in the 57th minute the only response Penrith could muster, with Jack Cogger's field goal in the 74th rounding out the margin.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests, a genuine mismatch rather than a slow start that got away from them. Knights ran 2,125 metres to Penrith's 1,751, and 751 of those came after contact against 623, the sort of gap that tells you who was making the tackler work. Nine line breaks to two and 50 tackle busts to 27 is not a team hanging on, that's a team repeatedly finding space at will. Ten offloads to five means the footy stayed alive on top of all that.

Where it really told was defence. Penrith missed 50 tackles for the game against just 27 from Newcastle, and their effective tackle rate of 86.3% against the Knights' 89.6% is the difference between absorbing pressure and bleeding points. Possession was closer than the scoreline suggests, 54% to 46%, but when one side completes at 85% and the other at 79%, the side with the ball is going to make it count more often than not.

Form lines had this leaning the other way. Penrith came in having won two of their last five with an average margin of plus 3.6, Newcastle had won just one with an average margin of minus 6.8. The positional ratings told a similar story everywhere bar one spot: Panthers held edges at the back (1013 to 862) and hooker (1035 to 948), but the halves gap was enormous, 1242 to 863 in Newcastle's favour, and on this evidence that's exactly where the game was decided. A team controlled by its spine that thoroughly doesn't need much else to go right.

Alphr's model had Penrith favourites at 61% and predicted a 4.1-point win off ratings of 1526 to 1330, with a combined total of 41. The under on 42.5 landed, the final total of 31 comfortably beneath it. But the margin call was well off, tipping a narrow Penrith win in a game the Knights won by 19 points. Model went 4 from 16 on this one, and the halves mismatch it had on the board turned out to be the whole story.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Knights | 24 | 1 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 79% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,751 | Run metres | **2,125** |
| 623 | Post-contact metres | **751** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | **50** |
| 5 | Offloads | **10** |
| 86.3% | Effective tackle % | **89.6%** |
| 50 | Missed tackles | **27** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **7** |
| 590 | Kick metres | **597** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 61% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 19 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 11 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Knights's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Knights have a 75% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 9' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Sin Bin — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 57' Try — Harrison Hassett (Panthers) — 4-24 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 74' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jack Cogger (Knights) — 6-25 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.34 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 61.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 61%, but Knights stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 196 ELO points clear, 1526 to 1330. Form leans Panthers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Knights.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Panthers by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-14 in 2026 Round 30.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Panthers 13th against Knights 15th.

Panthers come in fresher, 13 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Knights 2 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-14 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 13th · Knights 15th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Knights 0% |
| Rest gap | Panthers 13d · Knights 7d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Belinda Sharpe** — 23 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Belinda Sharpe | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 0W–3L | 0% |
| Knights | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 42.1 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Knights have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Panthers's 0 from 3 (0%). Small sample (3 games for Panthers).

Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Knights get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Panthers's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | -6.8pts |
| 1755.2m | Run Metres | 1783.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 356.2 | Tackles | 402.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 14.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 2W–3L | 24.8 |
| Knights | 1W–4L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PF | Panthers | 14 – 22 | Knights |
| 2026 | R8 | Knights | 12 – 44 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R23 | Knights | 12 – 48 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R22 | Panthers | 22 – 14 | Knights |
| 2024 | R15 | Knights | 18 – 26 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Talagi, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 17th-ranked right edge attack (0.6 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 13th there (1.3 conceded/game). Key man: Schiller, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 11th) | 0.7/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.6/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 8 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 194m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 26 | 11 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 732m/g | 782m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 23.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 494m/g | 542m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.43) -5%
**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2% · 2nd Rows 0.38/g (lg 0.44) -14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Carrington Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daine Laurie | FB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 2/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Thomas Jenkins | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Matthew Eisenhuth | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Preston Riki | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Henry | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Sommerton | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/9g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Cole | Replacement | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·3·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/23g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Kyle McCarthy | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Hunt | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Tyson Gamble | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 12' 24' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Elliott | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Brodie Jones | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1526 · Knights 1330 · ELO difference: 196 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1025 (best 1281) | 1064 (best 1271) | Knights +39 |
| Backs | 1013 (best 1149) | 862 (best 969) | Panthers +151 |
| Halves | 863 (best 863) | 1242 (best 1242) | Knights +379 |
| Hooker | 1035 | 948 | Panthers +87 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Panthers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)