# Eels v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 30 – 10 Sea Eagles

_Eels slip past Sea Eagles._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 38% / Sea Eagles 62% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 23 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Jordan Samrani (23'), Joash Papalii (25'), Jack Williams (36'), Isaiah Iongi (46' Tipped ⚡), J'maine Hopgood (60') · Sea Eagles: Lehi Hopoate (9' 1st Tipped ⚡), Lehi Hopoate (28' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 62% | Lost |
| Eels | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 30–10 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 12 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different games plan, one scoreboard. Manly wanted the ball in hand, chucking it around with 15 offloads to the Eels' 6, holding 51% possession and playing at 90.4% tackle efficiency. Parramatta wanted it simpler: catch it, run it hard, put it through the line. That version won by 20.

Final score was Eels 30, Sea Eagles 30... no, 10. Eels 30, Sea Eagles 10 at CommBank Stadium, and the half-time score of 16-10 tells you this one built rather than blew out from the opening whistle.

Lehi Hopoate had the Sea Eagles up 0-4 inside 8 minutes, the kind of start Manly's halves and hooker combination was rated to produce given the pre-match numbers had that spine well ahead of its opposite number, 1172 to 1005 in the halves, 1087 to 983 at hooker. But rugby league doesn't get won by spine ratings alone. Between the 22nd and 36th minutes Parramatta scored three times through Jordan Samrani, Joash Papalii and Jack Williams, sandwiched around a second Hopoate try that briefly had Manly back in front at 10-8. By half-time it was 16-10 and the Eels never lost that lead again.

The forward pack numbers explain why. Parramatta ran for 1,884 metres to 1,777, and their 628 post-contact metres against Manly's 583 shows a pack getting over the advantage line before contact rather than after it. That tracks with the pre-match forward ratings too, 1142 to 1047 in Parramatta's favour, the one positional edge that showed up directly on the stat sheet.

Isaiah Iongi and J'maine Hopgood finished it off in the second half, tries in the 46th and 60th minutes stretching it to 26-10 before the final margin settled at 30-10. Five line breaks to three and 27 tackle breaks to 25 tell the same story from a different angle: Parramatta found more ways through, even with less of the ball.

Manly's approach wasn't without method. Fifteen offloads is a lot of extra footy created off the back of the tackle, and their completion rate of 87% wasn't far off Parramatta's 88%. But 27 missed tackles and an inability to turn possession into points against a side conceding only 5 penalties meant the ambition didn't convert. Discipline mattered here too, Parramatta's 5 penalties conceded to Manly's 6 kept the ruck battle in the home side's favour all night.

For the model, this one was a miss. Sea Eagles were rated 1528 to the Eels' 1367 and given a 62% chance, with an expected margin of 1.2 points the other way. Instead Parramatta won by 20, one of the bigger reversals the model will have to wear.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Sea Eagles | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 87% |
| **1,884** | Run metres | 1,777 |
| **628** | Post-contact metres | 583 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **27** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| 6 | Offloads | **15** |
| 87.9% | Effective tackle % | **90.4%** |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| **8** | Errors | 9 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **779** | Kick metres | 751 |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 62% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Eels led 16–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 7 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 64% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 22' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Joash Papalii (Eels) — 8-4 · win-prob swing +13 pts
- 28' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 10-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 36' Try — Jack Williams (Eels) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 46' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 20-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 60' Try — J'maine Hopgood (Eels) — 26-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.47 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 62.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 62%, but Eels stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 161 ELO points clear, 1528 to 1367.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 23-14 in 2026 Round 18.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Eels 16th against Sea Eagles 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 6 · Sea Eagles 4 |
| Last meeting | Eels 23-14 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 16th · Sea Eagles 6th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 9W–5L | 64% |
| Sea Eagles | 4W–4L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Eels hold a 14-point edge: 9W–5L (64%) vs Sea Eagles's 4W–4L (50%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Sea Eagles's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 1716.0m | Run Metres | 1679.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 345.0 | Tackles | 349.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 22.4 |
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Eels | 23 – 14 | Sea Eagles |
| 2026 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 33 – 18 | Eels |
| 2025 | R4 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 12 | Eels |
| 2024 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R3 | Eels | 28 – 24 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.7/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.3/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) | 1.1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.7/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 212m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 30 | 26 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 767m/g | 704m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.1% | 76.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 11 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 419m/g | 522m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21% · Wingers 1.42/g (lg 1.25) +14%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Centres 0.97/g (lg 0.67) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 2 | Sean Russell | WG | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 12/25g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 12/39g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·2·2·0·0) | 6/14g | 7/12g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/11g | 15/59g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/9g | 6% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 9/75g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | INT | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 2/13g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/21g | 10% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Ryan Matterson | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 5/50g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Matt Doorey | RES | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 2/17g | 10% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 6/8g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/7g | 4/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·4·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 13/13g | 8/9g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 28' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 3/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Arthur | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Lachlan Croker | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/28g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthew Lodge | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1367 · Sea Eagles 1528 · ELO difference: 161 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1142 (best 1264) | 1047 (best 1245) | Eels +94 |
| Backs | 1086 (best 1202) | 1056 (best 1202) | Eels +30 |
| Halves | 1005 (best 1005) | 1172 (best 1172) | Sea Eagles +167 |
| Hooker | 983 | 1087 | Sea Eagles +103 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)