Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 62% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Eels led 16–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 7 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 67% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
38%
Sea Eagles
62%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 38%. Eels are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage, but Sea Eagles counter with ELO Difference and Halves Control which tips the scales. Sea Eagles carry a 161-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1367). The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 1.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.47
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 22.4 |
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Eels
18.0
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-2.8
Eels
2.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1716
Eels
1679
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.8
Eels
4.2
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 8 of 12 games (67%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 4 from 8 (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Eels get a +1.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Sea Eagles's -0.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.2
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