# Bulldogs v Dolphins — NRL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 8 – 44 Dolphins

_Dolphins make a splash against Bulldogs._

Half time: 8 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 68% / Dolphins 32% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 22 May, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Lipoi Hopoi (32') · Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (12' 1st), Jack Bostock (38' Tipped ⚡), Harrison Graham (46'), Herbie Farnworth (64' Tipped ⚡), Francis Molo (73'), Jake Averillo (77'), Kurt Donoghoe (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 68% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 8–44 Dolphins in NRL Round 12 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two teams walked into Accor Stadium with two different ideas about how to win. The Dolphins wanted the ball in hand and looked after it. The Bulldogs wanted to grind it out through the middle and lost that arm-wrestle too. By full time it was 44-8, and the numbers underneath that scoreline explain exactly why.

Start with completion rates. Dolphins finished at 80%, the Bulldogs at 64%. Over eighty minutes that's not a small gap, it's the difference between building phases and handing the ball straight back. Sixteen errors from the Bulldogs against nine from the Dolphins meant Brisbane's visitors kept winning field position without having to fight for it.

The scoreboard took a while to catch up with that pattern. Jamayne Isaako opened it in the 11th minute, Lipoi Hopoi hit back for the Bulldogs in the 31st to make it 6-8, and Jack Bostock's try just before the break made it 8-14 at half-time. Six points in it at the interval, tight enough that a home comeback wasn't out of the question.

Then the Dolphins did what the stat sheet said they would eventually do. Harrison Graham crossed in the 46th minute, Herbie Farnworth in the 63rd, and from there the tries kept coming: Francis Molo in the 73rd, Jake Averillo in the 76th, Kurt Donoghoe in the 78th. Seven different try scorers for the Dolphins across the eighty minutes, and each one arrived off the back of a platform the Bulldogs simply couldn't hold.

That platform came from metres and go-forward. The Dolphins ran for 1,513 to the Bulldogs' 1,091, and post-contact it was 546 to 368, meaning Brisbane's ball-runners were still finding metres after the tackle had started. Seven line breaks to none and 33 tackle breaks to 13 says the Bulldogs' line spent the night getting bent, then broken. The Dolphins also shaded the kicking game, 553 metres to the Bulldogs' 616 the other way, though it was field position through running metres, not kicking, that did the damage.

On defence, the ledger reads just as badly for the home side. The Bulldogs missed 33 tackles to the Dolphins' 13, an effective tackle rate of 90.7% against 93.2%. That's a defensive line that never got its spacing sorted, conceding six penalties to the Dolphins' five and chasing width it never quite closed down.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Dolphins | 14 | 30 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 64% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| 1,091 | Run metres | **1,513** |
| 368 | Post-contact metres | **546** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 13 | Tackle breaks | **33** |
| 6 | Offloads | 6 |
| 90.7% | Effective tackle % | **93.2%** |
| 33 | Missed tackles | **13** |
| 16 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **616** | Kick metres | 553 |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 36 points. Dolphins led 8–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 5 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 73% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 31' Try — Lipoi Hopoi (Bulldogs) — 6-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 38' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 8-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Harrison Graham (Dolphins) — 8-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 63' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 8-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 73' Try — Francis Molo (Dolphins) — 8-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 76' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 8-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Kurt Donoghoe (Dolphins) — 8-42 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.22 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 67.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 68% to see off Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 188 ELO points clear, 1638 to 1450. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.2, with the two sides combining for about 38. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 2 wins apiece from the last 4.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 1st against Dolphins 14th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 4) | Bulldogs 2 · Dolphins 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 44-12 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 1st · Dolphins 14th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 6W–5L | 55% |
| Dolphins | 11W–4L | 73% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 6 from 11 (55%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1730.2m | Run Metres | 1658.8m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 341.0 | Tackles | 358.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 28.8 |
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Bulldogs lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Dolphins | 44 – 12 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R24 | Bulldogs | 30 – 10 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R22 | Bulldogs | 23 – 22 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 10th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 4th there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 10th) | 0.73/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.7/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 160m/g | 211m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 19 | 24 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 787m/g | 752m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 82.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 6 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 490m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.54/g (lg 0.45) +20% · Centres 0.78/g (lg 0.68) +15% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/14g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/9g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/14g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Blake Taaffe | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 9/29g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 11/28g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Lipoi Hopoi | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/39g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh Curran | PR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/14g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 5/22g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Harry Hayes | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Bailey Hayward | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Turpin | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Hughes | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Smith | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Averillo | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 11/24g | 38% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 2/5g | 38% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Max Feagai | CE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/6g | 4/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/12g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 9 | Kurt Donoghoe | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Ray Stone | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 15 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/36g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1638 · Dolphins 1450 · ELO difference: 188 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1025 (best 1186) | 1038 (best 1214) | Dolphins +13 |
| Backs | 834 (best 965) | 896 (best 1010) | Dolphins +62 |
| Halves | 1282 (best 1282) | 1375 (best 1375) | Dolphins +93 |
| Hooker | 974 | 1165 | Dolphins +191 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r12-bulldogs-v-dolphins
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)