Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 36 points. Dolphins led 8–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 6 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 70% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
68%
Dolphins
32%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Bulldogs carry a 188-point ELO rating advantage (1638 vs 1450). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.2 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.22
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.8%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.8%
Total Points
Under 41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 28.8 |
Dolphins | W W L L L | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Bulldogs
26.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
8.8
Bulldogs
-0.4
Dolphins
Run Metres
1730
Bulldogs
1659
Dolphins
Line Breaks
6.0
Bulldogs
3.8
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 4 from 9 (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dolphins get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +7.2
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.