# Wests Tigers v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 12 – 22 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs hop past Wests Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 47% / Rabbitohs 53% · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 18 May, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Apisai Koroisau (39'), Apisai Koroisau (69') · Rabbitohs: Siliva Havili (9' 1st), Euan Aitken (24'), Alex Johnston (60' Tipped ⚡), Jai Arrow (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 53% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 12–22 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 11 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers ran harder. They shifted the ball better, offloaded it more and cracked the line more often. Rabbitohs just kept hold of it. That contrast, ambition against control, decided a 22-12 scoreline that stayed tight for long stretches before Souths' discipline with the football won out.

Rabbitohs were first to move. Siliva Havili scored in the 9th minute to make it 0-4, and when Lachlan Galvin was sent to the bin in the 18th, Euan Aitken punished the extra man six minutes later to push it to 0-10. Wests Tigers were behind before they'd found any rhythm.

Apisai Koroisau got them on the board in the 38th minute, and it was 6-12 at the break. Close enough to matter, not close enough to be comfortable.

The second half opened with more of the same pattern. Alex Johnston extended Souths' lead to 16-6 in the 59th minute. Tallis Duncan then joined the bin in the 67th, and a minute later Koroisau scored his second to make it 10-16. Jai Arrow crossed in the 78th to push it to 12-20 before the game finished 22-12 in Rabbitohs' favour.

The numbers explain why Wests Tigers stayed within touch without ever grabbing control.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 10 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| **2,004** | Run metres | 1,792 |
| **763** | Post-contact metres | 735 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 38 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| **19** | Offloads | 5 |
| **89.4%** | Effective tackle % | 85.2% |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **38** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 573 | Kick metres | **777** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 0.6 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 16 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Siliva Havili (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Sin Bin — Lachlan Galvin (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 24' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 59' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 67' Sin Bin — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 6-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 68' Try — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 78' Try — Jai Arrow (Rabbitohs) — 12-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.90 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wests Tigers and Rabbitohs. The model can't split them, landing on Rabbitohs at 53%. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Rabbitohs.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Rabbitohs have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 20-16 in 2026 Round 3.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 10th against Rabbitohs 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Rabbitohs 8 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 20-16 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 10th · Rabbitohs 11th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Rabbitohs | 4W–4L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Rabbitohs hold a 10-point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Wests Tigers's 4W–6L (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Rabbitohs's -0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 11.6pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.2pts |
| 1620.0m | Run Metres | 1550.4m |
| 2.8 | Line Breaks | 2.4 |
| 316.6 | Tackles | 369.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 19.2 |
| Rabbitohs | 1W–4L | 11.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R20 | Rabbitohs | 42 – 28 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 0 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 11th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 17th there (2.6 conceded/game). Key man: Gray, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.6/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.7/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 8 | 4 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 165m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.5% | 84.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 21 | 17 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 641m/g | 643m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.6/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.1% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 541m/g | 475m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 88.9% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.27) +67% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.66/g (lg 0.43) +53% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·3·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 3/8g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/7g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Charlie Staines | WG | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/8g | 5/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/6g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 2/11g | 22% | — | 🏉 39' 69' |
| 10 | Royce Hunt | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Brent Naden | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 13% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/11g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·1·0) | 19/17g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 6g | 2/8g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 6% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 1/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | INT | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.75 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Sean Keppie | Replacement | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1390 · Rabbitohs 1398 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 882 (best 1214) | 1040 (best 1302) | Rabbitohs +158 |
| Backs | 883 (best 1021) | 993 (best 1084) | Rabbitohs +110 |
| Halves | 924 (best 924) | 800 (best 800) | Wests Tigers +124 |
| Hooker | 901 | 973 | Rabbitohs +72 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)