# Raiders v Titans — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 40 – 24 Titans

_Raiders raid Titans._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 68% / Titans 32% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 18 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Savelio Tamale (12' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (22'), Xavier Savage (26'), Zac Hosking (38'), Xavier Savage (41'), Hudson Young (45' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (51'), Xavier Savage (74') · Titans: Jojo Fifita (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josiah Pahulu (33'), Jojo Fifita (58' 1st Tipped 🎯), Moeaki Fotuaika (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 68% | Won |
| Titans | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 40–24 Titans in NRL Round 11 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jojo Fifita had the Titans up 4-0 inside four minutes, and for about eight minutes GIO Stadium looked like it might be watching an upset. Then Canberra found another gear entirely. Between the 12th and 40th minutes the Raiders crossed five times, through Savelio Tamale, Matthew Timoko, Zac Hosking and Xavier Savage twice, turning that 4-0 deficit into a 22-12 lead by the break. Josiah Pahulu got one back for the Titans in among all that, but it barely slowed the bleeding.

Final score: Raiders 40, Titans 24. The 18-12 half-time margin only tells half of it, because Canberra kept the foot down after the break and Xavier Savage finished with a hat-trick, his third arriving in the 74th minute to put the result well beyond doubt. Hudson Young and a second Timoko try either side of half-time did the rest of the damage before Fifita and Moeaki Fotuaika grabbed late Titans tries that dressed up a scoreline already decided.

The stat sheet explains why the Raiders never really looked like letting it slip once they hit the front. Canberra broke the line eight times to five, busted 34 tackles to 16, and threw the ball around with 18 offloads to the Titans' five. That's not a team scraping tries together, that's a side finding soft shoulders all night. The 613 post-contact metres to 441 backs it up: Canberra were getting go-forward even when the Titans had numbers in the tackle.

Defensively it was even more lopsided. Canberra tackled at 92.9% effective and missed only 16, while the Titans missed 34 and sat at 84.8%. A defence leaking that many tackles was always going to struggle against a Raiders side that had already shown it could find gaps.

Curiously, the Titans were the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 80% to Canberra's 78% and conceding just nine errors to ten. It didn't matter much. Clean footy without go-forward or line-breaks is just possession for its own sake, and the Raiders had 55% of the ball anyway, along with 1,985 run metres to 1,503.

The form line into this one pointed at Canberra doing exactly this. Four wins from five, averaging 32 points a game and conceding 22, against a Titans outfit that had won just once in five and was leaking 35.2 a game. The Titans' halves and backline carried the higher rating on paper, 1,327 and 1,167 to Canberra's 1,173 and 862, but ratings don't make tackles, and the Raiders' forward pack and hooker edge, 1,087 to 1,084 and 1,068 to 929, showed up exactly where it counted, in contact and around the ruck.

Alphr's model had Canberra as 68% favourites and picked them by 9.9. The actual margin came in at 16, and the 64 points scored blew well past the 43 predicted total. Reasonable read, undercooked on the scoring appetite. Once the Raiders found that gear midway through the first half, the Titans never really got it back.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 22 | 40 |
| Titans | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| 78% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| **1,985** | Run metres | 1,503 |
| **613** | Post-contact metres | 441 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **34** | Tackle breaks | 16 |
| **18** | Offloads | 5 |
| **92.9%** | Effective tackle % | 84.8% |
| **16** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 549 | Kick metres | **575** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 9.9 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 64 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 43. Raiders led 18–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 6/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 17 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Raiders have a 86% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 12' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 33' Try — Josiah Pahulu (Titans) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 40' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 45' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 51' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 32-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 58' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 34-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 38-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans) — 40-22 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.35 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 68% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 208 ELO points clear, 1555 to 1346. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Raiders by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 9.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 4th against Titans 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 9 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 28-12 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 4th · Titans 15th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6W–1L | 86% |
| Titans | 3W–13L | 19% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 16 (19%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Raiders).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Titans get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Raiders's -1.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Margin | -16.0pts |
| 1704.2m | Run Metres | 1552.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 316.2 | Tackles | 346.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 32.0 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Titans | 12 – 28 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R7 | Titans | 20 – 30 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R6 | Raiders | 21 – 20 | Titans |
| 2023 | R18 | Raiders | 26 – 22 | Titans |
| 2022 | R20 | Titans | 24 – 36 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.11/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 9 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 195m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 83% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 25 | 16 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 660m/g | 622m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.3/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 594m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.37/g (lg 0.16) +131% · Fullbacks 0.72/g (lg 0.44) +64% · 2nd Rows 0.7/g (lg 0.45) +56%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 6/16g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 14/42g | 26% | — | 🏉 22' 51' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 19/44g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 12/24g | 54% | — | 🏉 26' 41' 74' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/14g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/49g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 10/86g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·1) | 6/7g | 22/54g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 4/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 28/125g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/24g | 4% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (1·0·0·3·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 3/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 58' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 4/11g | 2/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | FB | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 0/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jaimin Jolliffe | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Chris Randall | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Josiah Pahulu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 33' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1555 · Titans 1346 · ELO difference: 208 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1087 (best 1318) | 1084 (best 1340) | Raiders +3 |
| Backs | 862 (best 1037) | 1167 (best 1287) | Titans +304 |
| Halves | 1173 (best 1173) | 1327 (best 1327) | Titans +154 |
| Hooker | 1068 | 929 | Raiders +139 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Raiders predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)