Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 9.9 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 64 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 43. Raiders led 18–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 17 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Raiders have a 86% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
68%
Titans
32%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Raiders ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Raiders carry a 208-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1346). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Raiders by 9.9 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.7%
Line / Spread
Raiders -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.7%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W L | 32.0 |
Titans | W L L L L | 19.2 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Raiders
35.2
Titans
Avg Margin
10.0
Raiders
-16.0
Titans
Run Metres
1704
Raiders
1552
Titans
Line Breaks
5.8
Raiders
3.8
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Raiders).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Raiders's -1.6.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Raiders predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.9
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