AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 12 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Eels's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Eels have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Todd Smith's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Eels prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 53% prediction for Knights — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.0 but the actual margin was 22 points. Eels led 0–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
53%
Eels
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Knights a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Eels are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control — but Knights counter with ELO Difference and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Knights carry a 51-point ELO rating advantage (1374 vs 1324). Recent form favours Eels with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Knights by 1.0 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @1.68
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Line / Spread
Knights -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WLLLL | 16.0 |
Eels | WWLLL | 21.4 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Knights
28.4
Eels
Avg Margin
-5.6
Knights
-7.0
Eels
Run Metres
1755
Knights
1682
Eels
Line Breaks
4.6
Knights
5.6
Eels
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Todd Smith officiates, Eels have won 8 of 15 games (53%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 6 (17%). That's a 36‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 46.1 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Knights — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Knights predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +1.0
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