# Knights v Eels — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 6 – 28 Eels

_Eels slip past Knights._

Half time: 0 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 53% / Eels 47% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Fri, 16 May, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: James Schiller (75' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Mitchell Moses (10' 1st Tipped ⚡), Zac Lomax (14'), Zac Lomax (55'), Dylan Brown (64' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Samrani (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 53% | Lost |
| Eels | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.0 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 6–28 Eels in NRL Round 11 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Newcastle wanted to hold the ball and play it tidy. Parramatta wanted to run through them. Only one of those plans works when you're getting beaten up in the collisions, and the Knights found that out the hard way, going down 28-6 at McDonald Jones Stadium.

The numbers tell you exactly why. Knights actually completed at a higher rate, 69% to 77%... no, the other way round, Eels completed better and still had fewer possessions to protect, sitting on 55% of the ball anyway. So Newcastle held it more carefully but had less of it to hold, and when they did have it they couldn't do anything with it. Three line breaks to seven. Twenty-two tackle breaks to forty-nine. That's not a discipline gap, that's a physical one.

Parramatta got off to the perfect start without needing to force anything. Mitchell Moses crossed in the 10th minute, Zac Lomax added his first four minutes later, and the Eels were already up 10-0 before Newcastle had settled into the game. That was the score at the break, and it flattered the Knights given what was coming.

The second half is where the gap turned into a hiding. Lomax struck again in the 55th minute for his double, and Newcastle's night got worse six minutes later when Kai Pearce-Paul was sent to the sin bin. Down a man, the Knights leaked two more inside four minutes, Dylan Brown in the 63rd and Jordan Samrani in the 66th, and just like that it was 0-28. James Schiller's try in the 74th was just tidying up the scoreboard.

Post-contact metres explain a lot of that. Parramatta ground out 585 to Newcastle's 525, and busted 49 tackles to the Knights' 22. That's a forward pack winning the collision battle over and over, and it lines up with the pre-match ratings, where Parramatta's forwards (1123) and halves (1244) were rated above Newcastle's (1089 and 1103). The Eels also had the boot working for them, 764 kick metres to 592, which is how you control territory even when you're not holding the ball.

Newcastle's defence was the story of the loss. Missing 49 tackles against Parramatta's 22 is the kind of gap that turns a competitive scoreline into a rout, and it's why the Knights conceded five tries to two despite actually making fewer errors, 14 to 15. They were the tidier side on paper and still lost by 22.

Alphr's model had this one almost dead even before kick-off, giving Newcastle 53% and picking them by a single point on a combined total of 46. Instead Parramatta won by 22, and the model finished the day 3 from 16. Newcastle's recent form had them dropping games by an average of 5.6 points, and this one blew well past that trend. Form lines are useful right up until a team gets bullied for eighty minutes, and that's what happened here.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Eels | 10 | 18 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 69% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,642 | Run metres | **1,983** |
| 525 | Post-contact metres | **585** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 22 | Tackle breaks | **49** |
| 6 | Offloads | **9** |
| 84.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.6%** |
| 49 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| **14** | Errors | 15 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 592 | Kick metres | **764** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 53% prediction for Knights, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.0 but the actual margin was 22 points. Eels led 0–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 13 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Eels have a 56% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 55' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 61' Sin Bin — Kai Pearce-Paul (Knights) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 63' Try — Dylan Brown (Eels) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 66' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 0-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 4-28 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.68 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Knights and Eels. The model can't split them, landing on Knights at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 51 ELO points clear, 1374 to 1324. Form leans Eels' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Knights.

On paper Eels shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Knights, which says ELO Difference and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Knights by 1.0, with the two sides combining for about 46. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Eels have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 28-22 in 2026 Round 13.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Knights 14th against Eels 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 2 · Eels 8 |
| Last meeting | Knights 28-22 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 14th · Eels 17th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Eels 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Eels | 10W–8L | 56% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Eels have won 10 of 18 games (56%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Knights get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Eels's -0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 28.4pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | -7.0pts |
| 1754.6m | Run Metres | 1681.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 406.8 | Tackles | 340.4 |
| 14.4 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 1W–4L | 16.0 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Knights | 28 – 22 | Eels |
| 2025 | R27 | Eels | 66 – 10 | Knights |
| 2024 | R17 | Knights | 34 – 26 | Eels |
| 2023 | R9 | Eels | 43 – 12 | Knights |
| 2022 | R7 | Knights | 2 – 39 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 14th-ranked left edge attack (0.78 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Lucas, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 15th-ranked middle attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.78/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.78/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 10th) | 1.11/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.56/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 15 | 17 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 783m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 24.2/g | 16.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.5% | 78.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 4 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 545m/g | 403m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.67) +46%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 30/56g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/15g | 25/100g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Hunt | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 11/9g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/72g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 10/47g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/21g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 5% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Elliott | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 3/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/39g | 8% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 3/5g | 36% | — | 🏉 14' 55' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·1·2·2·0) | 11/14g | 7/6g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 3/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/14g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 17 | Toni Mataele | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1374 · Eels 1324 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1089 (best 1326) | 1123 (best 1236) | Eels +33 |
| Backs | 1053 (best 1119) | 1084 (best 1211) | Eels +31 |
| Halves | 1103 (best 1103) | 1244 (best 1244) | Eels +141 |
| Hooker | 1058 | 1074 | Eels +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Knights predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)