AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 16 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Warriors's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Warriors have a 50% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 57% prediction for Dolphins — a notable result. The margin model was sharp — predicting Warriors by 2.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 28 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
57%
Warriors
43%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Warriors carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1469). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Warriors by 2.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.95
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.7%
Line / Spread
Warriors +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.7%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | WWWLL | 29.2 |
Warriors | WWWWL | 21.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Dolphins
22.4
Warriors
Avg Margin
4.0
Dolphins
-1.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1647
Dolphins
1637
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.6
Dolphins
4.0
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Warriors have won 11 of 22 games (50%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 8 (25%). That's a 25‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.3 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1551 vs 1469), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.95).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Dolphins predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.2
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