Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 57% prediction for Dolphins, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 2.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 28 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 16 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Warriors's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Warriors have a 52% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
57%
Warriors
43%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Warriors carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1469). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Warriors by 2.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.95
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.7%
Line / Spread
Warriors +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.7%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W W L L | 29.2 |
Warriors | W W W W L | 21.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Dolphins
22.4
Warriors
Avg Margin
4.0
Dolphins
-1.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1647
Dolphins
1637
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.6
Dolphins
4.0
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Warriors have won 12 of 23 games (52%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 9 (22%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1551 vs 1469), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.95).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Dolphins predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.2
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