# Dolphins v Warriors — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 12 – 16 Warriors

_Warriors survive a scare against Dolphins._

Half time: 0 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 57% / Warriors 43% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 17 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (72' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (78' Tipped ⚡) · Warriors: Marata Niukore (28' 1st), Kurt Capewell (35'), Jacob Laban (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 57% | Lost |
| Warriors | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 12–16 Warriors in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen errors to eight. That gap is the whole story of a 16-12 Warriors win at Suncorp Stadium, and it's not close when you line up everything else Dolphins did right.

Warriors led 10-0 at half-time, built off tries to Marata Niukore in the 28th minute and Kurt Capewell in the 35th. Dolphins had 54% of possession in that opening half and still couldn't crack the line. Jacob Laban stretched the margin to 14-0 in the 69th minute, and from there it looked like a formality. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow finally got Dolphins on the board in the 71st, James Fisher-Harris was sin-binned five minutes later for the Warriors, and Herbie Farnworth crossed in the 77th to make it 16-12. That's as close as it got. Warriors held on from there.

Strip out the possession count and the game tells a different story to the one Dolphins fans might have wanted. Warriors completed at 82% to Dolphins' 74%, and that eight-to-sixteen error split is the kind of margin that costs field position and costs composure late in a tight game. Dolphins ran for 1,735 metres to the Warriors' 1,559, had more offloads (10 to 4) and more tackle breaks (32 to 30), all the hallmarks of a side doing plenty right with the ball in hand. None of that matters much if you keep handing it back at the wrong moments.

Defensively it was tighter than the ledger suggests. Dolphins tackled at 90.7% effective against the Warriors' 88.2%, and missed fewer tackles too, 30 to 32. Warriors didn't need to be the better defensive side all night. They needed to be the side that didn't gift field position through careless ball control, and on 16 errors to 8, they were exactly that.

Post-contact metres were almost identical, 587 for Dolphins to 586 for Warriors, and line breaks were locked at two apiece. Kick metres slightly favoured the Warriors, 549 to 508, which lines up with a team happy to play with less of the ball and let field position and discipline do the work. Penalties were even too, eight each, so neither side could point to the referee as the difference.

The positional ratings coming in had Dolphins stronger up front (1098 to 1052) and stronger out back (1065 to 934), with the halves battle close (1375 to 1346). Warriors held a clear edge at hooker, 1082 to 881, which is worth noting given how much of this game turned on ruck speed and completion rather than raw metres.

Recent form pointed to a much tighter contest than the final margin suggests it should have been. Dolphins arrived averaging 29.2 points a game across their last five to the Warriors' 21, with a healthy plus-4 average margin against the Warriors' minus-1.4. Alphr's model had Warriors as narrow 2.2-point favourites with a combined total of 43. The actual margin came in at 4 points, close enough to call the model sharp on that front, though the 28-point total was well under the projected 43. A low-scoring arm-wrestle, decided not by who ran harder but by who held onto the footy when it mattered.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| Warriors | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 74% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **1,735** | Run metres | 1,559 |
| **587** | Post-contact metres | 586 |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| **10** | Offloads | 4 |
| **90.7%** | Effective tackle % | 88.2% |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| 16 | Errors | **8** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 508 | Kick metres | **549** |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 57% prediction for Dolphins, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 2.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 28 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 4/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 1.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 16 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Warriors's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Warriors have a 52% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 28' Try — Marata Niukore (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 35' Try — Kurt Capewell (Warriors) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 71' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 76' Sin Bin — James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 77' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.95 (edge +7.7%) — model probability 56.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 57%, but Warriors stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Warriors sit 82 ELO points clear, 1551 to 1469, so the model is backing Dolphins against the ratings gap. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Dolphins.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Warriors by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 12th against Warriors 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Dolphins 5 · Warriors 4 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-16 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 12th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Warriors 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Warriors | 12W–11L | 52% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Warriors have won 12 of 23 games (52%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 9 (22%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | -1.4pts |
| 1646.6m | Run Metres | 1637.0m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 366.4 | Tackles | 367.0 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 29.2 |
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Warriors | 16 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R17 | Dolphins | 26 – 24 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R8 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R22 | Warriors | 18 – 20 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R23 | Dolphins | 34 – 32 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 6th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.78 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 8th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Metcalf, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.7/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 8th) | 1.78/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.1/g (def 8th) | 0.89/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 12 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 201m/g | 211m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 26 | 14 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 753m/g | 643m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 494m/g | 562m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 7.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.44) -2% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.67) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·2·0) | 2/6g | 14/22g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 28/67g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 8/18g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 6/8g | 21/57g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 6/16g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 20/75g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Kurt Donoghoe | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 2/34g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Tom Gilbert | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Ray Stone | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/21g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 6/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 5/20g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.50 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·3·0) | 3/3g | 5/16g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/9g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 9/36g | 16% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 2/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/12g | 16% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/16g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1551 vs 1469), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.95). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1469 · Warriors 1551 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1098 (best 1219) | 1052 (best 1329) | Dolphins +45 |
| Backs | 1065 (best 1159) | 934 (best 1057) | Dolphins +131 |
| Halves | 1375 (best 1375) | 1346 (best 1346) | Dolphins +29 |
| Hooker | 881 | 1082 | Warriors +200 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)