# Cowboys v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 6 – 24 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles soar past Cowboys._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 65% / Sea Eagles 35% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 17 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Robert Derby (32' Tipped ⚡) · Sea Eagles: Jason Saab (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jason Saab (44' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lehi Hopoate (69'), Ben Trbojevic (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 65% | Lost |
| Sea Eagles | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 6–24 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 11 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-seven to twenty. That's the tackle bust count, Sea Eagles over Cowboys, and it's the number that explains a 24-6 scoreline that didn't look like a rout until it was one. Manly ran through and around defenders all night, and Townsville just kept bouncing off.

It was locked at 6-6 at the break, so this wasn't a start-to-finish flogging. Jason Saab opened it in the 9th minute, Robert Derby hit back for the only Cowboys try of the night in the 32nd, and at half-time you'd have called it even money. Then Saab scored his second in the 43rd to shove Manly back in front, and from there the Sea Eagles just kept adding to it: Lehi Hopoate in the 69th, Ben Trbojevic in the 75th, Tom Trbojevic copping a sin bin in the dying minutes almost as an afterthought.

The possession split was dead even, 50-50, and Cowboys actually completed at a better clip, 72% to 67%, with fewer errors on the ledger too, 14 to 15. On paper that's a side doing the orderly things right. Didn't matter. Rugby league still comes down to what happens when the ball's live, and that's where Manly buried them.

Seven line breaks to two tells you Manly found space whenever they wanted it. Fourteen offloads to nine says they kept the ball alive in the tackle after finding it. And that tackle bust gap, 37 to 20, is really just the same story told through a different stat: Cowboys defenders were arriving second, or missing altogether, 37 missed tackles against Manly's 20. An effective tackle rate of 91.2% for the Sea Eagles against 84.5% for the home side sums up why the contest tilted so hard after half-time.

Manly also had the fresher legs in the arm-wrestle for territory, out-kicking Cowboys 632 metres to 460 and grinding out extra post-contact metres, 502 to 474, despite similar total run metres, 1,657 to 1,612. None of those are back-breaking gaps on their own. Stacked together, they're the difference between a team defending its own end and a team playing with field position.

The pre-match numbers had Cowboys favoured, 65% to win, with the ratings gap (1525 to 1490) pointing to a home win by 3.2 and a total near 44. The under call landed, just, with the game finishing on 30. The margin didn't come close: 18 points the wrong way for a model that had Manly's halves and hooker stocks undersold. Manly's halves rating, 1223 to 1063, and hooker rating, 1200 to 975, were both comfortably the stronger numbers walking in, and on this evidence they were the difference at set-piece and in attacking shape, whatever the ladder position or recent form said.

Because form did favour Townsville, three wins from five against Manly's one, an average winning margin of plus-8 against minus-6.4. None of it travelled. Cowboys leaked six tries at their own ground and could point to the completion rate and error count as small mercies in a night where the only count that mattered was how many tackles they missed.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Sea Eagles | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **72%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| 1,612 | Run metres | **1,657** |
| 474 | Post-contact metres | **502** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| 9 | Offloads | **14** |
| 84.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.2%** |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| **14** | Errors | 15 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 460 | Kick metres | **632** |

**Model Report Card**

Sea Eagles defied the model's 65% prediction for Cowboys, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.2 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 51% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 32' Try — Robert Derby (Cowboys) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 43' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 6-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.74 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 64.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cowboys here: 65% to see off Sea Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cowboys sit 35 ELO points clear, 1525 to 1490. Form leans Cowboys' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Sea Eagles.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Cowboys by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Cowboys to win, not to win big.

Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 19.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 6th against Sea Eagles 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 3 · Sea Eagles 7 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 19-18 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 6th · Sea Eagles 8th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 16W–21L | 43% |
| Sea Eagles | 21W–20L | 51% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 8-point edge: 21W–20L (51%) vs Cowboys's 16W–21L (43%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 1878.0m | Run Metres | 1640.8m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 342.8 | Tackles | 341.4 |
| 13.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 3W–2L | 30.4 |
| Sea Eagles | 1W–4L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Sea Eagles | 18 – 19 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R7 | Cowboys | 6 – 38 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 42 – 12 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R18 | Cowboys | 20 – 21 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R20 | Sea Eagles | 8 – 19 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 13th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.22/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 7th) | 1.22/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.56/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 212m/g | 210m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 20 | 23 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 752m/g | 702m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.7% | 76% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 4 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 466m/g | 530m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.44) +20% · Wingers 1.42/g (lg 1.25) +14%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 17/60g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 6 in 7g | 6/8g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 28/48g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 18/46g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/58g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 18/60g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Coen Hess | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 6/45g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 2/5g | 24/36g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Sam McIntyre | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/41g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 3/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/6g | 4/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' 44' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·4·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 27% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 2/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Caleb Navale | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1525 · Sea Eagles 1490 · ELO difference: 35 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1079 (best 1239) | 1052 (best 1214) | Cowboys +27 |
| Backs | 1039 (best 1129) | 872 (best 1021) | Cowboys +167 |
| Halves | 1063 (best 1063) | 1223 (best 1223) | Sea Eagles +159 |
| Hooker | 975 | 1200 | Sea Eagles +225 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)