Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 65% prediction for Cowboys, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.2 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 55% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
65%
Sea Eagles
35%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 35-point ELO rating advantage (1525 vs 1490). Recent form favours Cowboys with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 3.2 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.74
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.8%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W W L L | 30.4 |
Sea Eagles | W L L L L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Cowboys
26.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
8.0
Cowboys
-6.4
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1878
Cowboys
1641
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
6.6
Cowboys
4.6
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 21W–17L (55%) vs Cowboys's 14W–18L (44%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.6.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Cowboys predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +3.2
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