# Bulldogs v Roosters — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 24 – 20 Roosters

_Bulldogs surge back to hound Roosters from 14 down._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 74% / Roosters 26% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 16 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Viliame Kikau (49'), Toby Sexton (57'), Bronson Xerri (63' Tipped ⚡), Matt Burton (74') · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lindsay Collins (32'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (67' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 74% | Won |
| Roosters | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 24–20 Roosters in NRL Round 11 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight errors to seventeen. That gap in ball security is how Bulldogs came from 14-0 down at half-time to beat the Roosters 24-20 at Accor Stadium, and it's the number that explains everything else on the stat sheet.

Roosters had the game shape they wanted early. Mark Nawaqanitawase crossed in the 5th minute, Lindsay Collins added another in the 31st, and Bulldogs went to the sheds looking at a 14-0 deficit with nothing to show for it. Given the pre-match splits, forwards 1101 to 1014 and halves 1116 to 1050 in the Roosters' favour, that lead made sense on paper.

Then the second half turned into a different contest entirely. Kikau got Bulldogs on the board in the 49th, Sexton followed seven minutes later, Xerri put them in front for the first time at 62 minutes, and by the time Nawaqanitawase claimed his second try in the 67th it was locked at 18-18. Matt Burton settled it in the 73rd. Five tries in 24 minutes, and Bulldogs scored four of them.

The completion numbers tell you why they could sustain that. Bulldogs finished at 81% with just 8 errors, against a Roosters side that leaked the ball 17 times and completed at only 67%. When you're building field position off that many mistakes, momentum is hard to hold onto, and that's exactly what happened after half-time.

It wasn't one-way traffic, mind. Roosters actually outmuscled Bulldogs in the collision stats, 1,676 running metres to 1,603, and 36 tackle breaks to 29, with 12 offloads to Bulldogs' 7. Their forward pack rating of 1101 showed up in that kind of go-forward. But go-forward without the ball in hand often enough doesn't count for much, and 17 errors is a lot of opportunities handed straight back.

Defensively it ran the other way. Bulldogs missed 36 tackles to the Roosters' 29, and their effective tackle rate of 86.0% was the lower of the two. That's how a team can win a game while conceding more line breaks worth of pressure, the errors up the other end simply gave them more ball to work with and more chances to find the tries that mattered.

Form-wise, Bulldogs came in as the more reliable outfit, four wins from five against the Roosters' three, and their average concession of 16 points a game was well under the Roosters' 24. Conceding 14 in a half looked like a form-breaker in the making. It wasn't. The compression, four tries in the second half, plus a completion rate 14 points clear of their opponents, dragged the result back into line with what the season had been saying about them.

Alphr's model backed Bulldogs at 74% and had them winning by 7, with a total of 41. The actual margin was 4 and the total finished at 44, both close enough to call the read sharp. What the model didn't have was the shape of it, a scoreless first half followed by a four-try response. The competition stat sheet caught up with the placings pre-match suggested, just from an angle nobody drew up beforehand.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0 | 24 | 24 |
| Roosters | 14 | 6 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| 1,603 | Run metres | **1,676** |
| **476** | Post-contact metres | 466 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 7 | Offloads | **12** |
| 86.0% | Effective tackle % | **87.8%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| **8** | Errors | 17 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 742 | Kick metres | **793** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. Bulldogs trailed 0–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–20. The model went 6/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 31' Try — Lindsay Collins (Roosters) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 49' Try — Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 56' Try — Toby Sexton (Bulldogs) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 62' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +20 pts
- 67' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 18-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 73' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 22-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.37 (edge +8.0%) — model probability 73.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 74% to see off Roosters. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 122 ELO points clear, 1624 to 1501. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Roosters.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 20-18 in 2026 Round 23.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 1st against Roosters 9th.

Roosters come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 20-18 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 1st · Roosters 9th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Bulldogs 6d · Roosters 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 23W–18L | 56% |
| Roosters | 43W–29L | 60% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Bulldogs 23W–18L (56%) and Roosters 43W–29L (60%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Bulldogs get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1796.6m | Run Metres | 1672.0m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 342.0 | Tackles | 333.2 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 28.0 |
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Roosters | 20 – 18 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R24 | Roosters | 32 – 12 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R16 | Roosters | 26 – 8 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R5 | Bulldogs | 30 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R14 | Roosters | 25 – 24 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.78 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 12th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 9th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.89/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.78/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.22/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.78/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.78/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 157m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 17 | 21 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 796m/g | 698m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16/g | 19.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 6 | 5 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 474m/g | 531m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.55/g (lg 0.45) +22% · Centres 0.79/g (lg 0.67) +18% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 2/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 12/20g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 9/28g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 10/27g | 16% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/12g | 10% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 1/30g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.50 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 4/38g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 4/21g | 18% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 12 | Harry Hayes | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Mann | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 8/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/19g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Lipoi Hopoi | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Smith | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 13/12g | 26/38g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/18g | 12/20g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 5 in 8g | 6/9g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 67' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 2/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 8/38g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/9g | 1/13g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 8% | — | 🏉 32' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1624 · Roosters 1501 · ELO difference: 122 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1014 (best 1244) | 1101 (best 1259) | Roosters +88 |
| Backs | 1128 (best 1185) | 1095 (best 1211) | Bulldogs +33 |
| Halves | 1050 (best 1050) | 1116 (best 1116) | Roosters +66 |
| Hooker | 1026 | 964 | Bulldogs +62 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)