Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. Bulldogs trailed 0–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–20. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
74%
Roosters
26%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Roosters. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Bulldogs carry a 122-point ELO rating advantage (1624 vs 1501). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 28.0 |
Roosters | W W W L L | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
16.0
Bulldogs
24.0
Roosters
Avg Margin
12.0
Bulldogs
2.8
Roosters
Run Metres
1797
Bulldogs
1672
Roosters
Line Breaks
5.6
Bulldogs
6.2
Roosters
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Bulldogs 23W–17L (57%) and Roosters 42W–28L (60%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Bulldogs get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +7.0
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