# Broncos v Dragons — NRL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 26 – 30 Dragons

_Dragons fight back to breathe fire on Broncos from 8 down._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 68% / Dragons 32% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 18 May, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Gehamat Shibasaki (17' 1st), Ezra Mam (26' Tipped ⚡), Kotoni Staggs (61'), Jesse Arthars (77' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (33' Tipped ⚡), Clinton Gutherson (53'), Jacob Liddle (58' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (67' Tipped ⚡), Clinton Gutherson (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 68% | Lost |
| Dragons | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 26–30 Dragons in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos did most things right at Suncorp Stadium and still walked away with nothing to show for it. They out-broke the Dragons on the line 7 times to 3, banked more post-contact metres, 517 to 461, and ran for more overall territory, 1,782 metres to 1,639. They gave away fewer penalties too, 6 to 7. On paper that reads like a home win. The scoreboard says otherwise: Dragons 30, Broncos 26.

The first half backed up the stats. Gehamat Shibasaki opened the scoring in the 16th minute, Ezra Mam stretched it to 10-0 by the 25th, and Broncos went to the break ahead 12-4 after Tyrell Sloan's first try pulled one back for the Dragons just before half-time. It was the kind of lead built on line breaks and go-forward that a halves pairing rated at 1184 to St George Illawarra's 1000 coming in is supposed to produce.

Then it came apart. Jaydn Su'A's sin bin in the 49th minute didn't slow the Dragons down, if anything it lit them up. Clinton Gutherson scored either side of it, Jacob Liddle crossed in between, and by the 57th minute Dragons led 16-14. Kotoni Staggs pulled Broncos level at 18-18 in the 60th, but Sloan's second try and Gutherson's second put the visitors out to 20-28 by the 74th. Jesse Arthars' four-pointer in the 76th only trimmed the margin, and the Dragons held on, 30-26.

The completion rate is where this game was actually lost. Broncos finished at 72%, Dragons at 87%, and Broncos coughed up the ball 13 times to just 6. You can win the collision count all day and still hand a game away if you can't hold onto it, and that's exactly what played out after the break.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Dragons | 4 | 26 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| **1,782** | Run metres | 1,639 |
| **517** | Post-contact metres | 461 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| **11** | Offloads | 10 |
| 87.0% | Effective tackle % | **87.9%** |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| 13 | Errors | **6** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 528 | Kick metres | **745** |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 68% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.2 but the actual margin was 4 points. Dragons trailed 12–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–30. The model went 4/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dragons bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 58% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Dragons prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 25' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 49' Sin Bin — Jaydn Su'A (Dragons) — 12-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 52' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 57' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 60' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 66' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 74' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 20-28 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 76' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 24-30 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.30 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 68.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 68% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 73 ELO points clear, 1453 to 1380. Form leans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Broncos by 9.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dragons have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 30-26 in 2026 Round 13.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 7th against Dragons 13th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 2 · Dragons 8 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 30-26 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 7th · Dragons 13th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 100% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 35W–25L | 58% |
| Dragons | 11W–24L | 31% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 35 of 60 games (58%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 35 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Dragons get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Broncos's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.8pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | -2.2pts |
| 1540.6m | Run Metres | 1733.0m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 355.4 | Tackles | 361.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 1W–4L | 19.6 |
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Broncos | 26 – 30 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R19 | Broncos | 26 – 30 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R3 | Broncos | 40 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2022 | R25 | Dragons | 22 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2022 | R17 | Broncos | 32 – 18 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Reynolds, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 4th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.56/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.56/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.56/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 101m/g | 160m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 21 | 22 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 642m/g | 767m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.5/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 80.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 9 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 605m/g | 474m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.65/g (lg 0.45) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.43) +35%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.67) +7% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selwyn Cobbo | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 27/46g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Deine Mariner | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/3g | 6/22g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 35/71g | 28% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 4/12g | 28% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (1·3·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 16/43g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 15/29g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/19g | 8/52g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/59g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 8/45g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/73g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/23g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 13/58g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/49g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cory Paix | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 4/35g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/43g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Brendan Piakura | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Fletcher Baker | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/15g | 6/14g | 34% | — | 🏉 53' 75' |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·2·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 67' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 5/12g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lyhkan King-Togia | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack De Belin | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 4/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/27g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 3/9g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $76.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1453 · Dragons 1380 · ELO difference: 73 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1082 (best 1354) | 1185 (best 1284) | Dragons +104 |
| Backs | 974 (best 1066) | 983 (best 1139) | Dragons +9 |
| Halves | 1184 (best 1184) | 1000 (best 1000) | Broncos +184 |
| Hooker | 1077 | 1033 | Broncos +44 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Broncos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)