Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.3 but the actual margin was 64 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Storm led 34–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 13+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 65% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
71%
Wests Tigers
29%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 208-point ELO rating advantage (1629 vs 1421). The margin model predicts Storm by 15.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.1%
Line / Spread
Storm -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.1%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+24.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W L L | 30.8 |
Wests Tigers | W W W L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.2
Storm
26.8
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
7.6
Storm
-2.8
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1643
Storm
1653
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
6.2
Storm
3.4
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 52 games (65%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 12 from 29 (41%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Storm get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Storm predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +15.3
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