# Storm v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 64 – 0 Wests Tigers

_Storm put Wests Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 34 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 71% / Wests Tigers 29% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sun, 11 May, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Ryan Papenhuyzen (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Ryan Papenhuyzen (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Ryan Papenhuyzen (17' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh King (24'), Jahrome Hughes (27' Tipped ⚡), Nick Meaney (33'), Ryan Papenhuyzen (46' 1st Tipped 🎯), Nelson Asofa-Solomona (51'), Eliesa Katoa (58'), Cameron Munster (66'), Bronson Garlick (75') · Wests Tigers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 71% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.3 predicted → 64 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 64–0 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 10 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers actually won one column on the stat sheet. They completed at 72% to Storm's 77%, and coughed up the ball just 11 times to Storm's 16. On another day that's the kind of discipline that keeps you in a game. On this day it barely mattered, because the one stat that decides everything, points on the board, read 64-0 to Storm.

The problem wasn't ball security. It was what happened every time Storm had it. Wests Tigers missed 51 tackles. Storm missed 20. That gap, 31 more missed tackles than their opponent, is the whole story of the afternoon written in one number. Storm busted 51 tackles themselves and threw 18 offloads to keep sets alive, and against a defence leaking that badly, every collision turned into territory.

Ryan Papenhuyzen opened the scoring in the third minute and kept going, crossing four times in total. Storm were 14-0 up inside 16 minutes and had it at 34-0 by half-time, with tries to Josh King, Jahrome Hughes and Nick Meaney filling out the rest of the first-half account. Wests Tigers never got a foothold, let alone a response.

The second half was just more of the same, delivered without mercy. Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Eliesa Katoa, Cameron Munster and Bronson Garlick all crossed after the break, and the margin blew out from 34 to 64. Storm's front-runners weren't just breaking the line, they were breaking it constantly: 10 line breaks to Wests Tigers's solitary one tells you defence wasn't just leaking, it had given up trying to plug the gaps.

The territory numbers back it up. Storm ran for 2,128 metres to 1,234, with 590 of theirs coming after contact, nearly 190 more than the Tigers managed in total post-contact work. Add 485 kicking metres to Wests Tigers's 368 and Storm were never defending their own line for long. Wests Tigers's forwards and spine simply didn't have the physical edge to slow any of it down.

Pre-match, the ratings had Storm's halves well clear at 1156 to 1046, and that gap showed up everywhere once the ball was in hand. Storm's last-five form had them scoring at 30.8 a game and conceding 23.2. Multiply that expectation a few times over and you're still short of what actually happened.

Alphr's model backed Storm at 71% and had them winning by 15.3 on a combined total of 44. Both calls were directionally right and numerically nowhere close. The actual margin was 64, the total blew past 44, and Storm covered the 14.5-point line with more to spare than any sensible line should allow. Picking the winner is one thing. Picking the size of a rout like this is another problem entirely, and the model went 5 from 16 on this one to prove it.

Wests Tigers leave with the cleaner completion rate and not much else. Storm leave with eight different names on the scoresheet and a scoreline that needed four figures on one side of it just to be believed.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 34 | 30 | 64 |
| Wests Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **2,128** | Run metres | 1,234 |
| **590** | Post-contact metres | 403 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **51** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| **18** | Offloads | 11 |
| **88.4%** | Effective tackle % | 81.5% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 51 |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| **485** | Kick metres | 368 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.3 but the actual margin was 64 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Storm led 34–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 5/16 on this match. Storm covered the 14.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 64% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 8' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 16' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 23' Try — Josh King (Storm) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 26' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 26-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 33' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 32-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 45' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 38-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 50' Try — Nelson Asofa-Solomona (Storm) — 44-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 58' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 50-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Try — Cameron Munster (Storm) — 56-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 74' Try — Bronson Garlick (Storm) — 62-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.22 (edge -13.1%) — model probability 70.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +24.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 15 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 71% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 208 ELO points clear, 1629 to 1421.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Storm by 15.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 44-16 in 2026 Round 10.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Storm 4th against Wests Tigers 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 9 · Wests Tigers 1 |
| Last meeting | Storm 44-16 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 4th · Wests Tigers 8th |
| Finals odds | Storm 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 35W–20L | 64% |
| Wests Tigers | 12W–19L | 39% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 35 of 55 games (64%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 12 from 31 (39%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Storm get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 1642.8m | Run Metres | 1653.2m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 319.2 | Tackles | 303.6 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 3W–2L | 30.8 |
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Storm | 44 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R18 | Wests Tigers | 28 – 40 | Storm |
| 2023 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 28 | Storm |
| 2023 | R4 | Storm | 24 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 16 – 26 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.38 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) | 1.22/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 2.38/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.22/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.13/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.44/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 218m/g | 240m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 81.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 22 | 26 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 686m/g | 645m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.8% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 0 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 524m/g | 567m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.44) +36% · Wingers 1.65/g (lg 1.25) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.29/g (lg 1.25) +3% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.67) +3% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.11) -27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (2·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/3g | 33/39g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 8' 17' 46' |
| 2 | Sualauvi Faalogo | WG | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 3/7g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Grant Anderson | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/17g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 16/36g | 16% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 35/31g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 65% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 33/92g | 22% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (0·3·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 26/63g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/14g | 6% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/38g | 14% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 9/26g | 38% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/38g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 8/32g | 30% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Chan | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·0·3·2·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Brent Naden | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Charlie Staines | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | Replacement | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1629 · Wests Tigers 1421 · ELO difference: 208 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1002 (best 1251) | 991 (best 1281) | Storm +11 |
| Backs | 1020 (best 1103) | 1008 (best 1157) | Storm +12 |
| Halves | 1156 (best 1156) | 1046 (best 1046) | Storm +110 |
| Hooker | 973 | 917 | Storm +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Storm predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)