NRL | Round 10

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
WST
Wests Tigers
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • SUNDAY 11 MAY, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend — Storm have a 66% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 15.3 but the actual margin was 64 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Storm led 34–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 13+ margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

71%StormFavourite

Storm

71%

Wests Tigers

29%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 208-point ELO rating advantage (1629 vs 1421). The margin model predicts Storm by 15.3 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

-13.1%

Line / Spread

Storm -14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-13.1%

Total Points

Under 52.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+24.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWLL
30.8
Wests Tigers
WWWLL
24.0

Avg Conceded

23.2

Storm

26.8

Wests Tigers

Avg Margin

7.6

Storm

-2.8

Wests Tigers

Run Metres

1643

Storm

1653

Wests Tigers

Line Breaks

6.2

Storm

3.4

Wests Tigers

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
66%33W 17L
WST
44%12W 15L

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 33 of 50 games (66%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 12 from 27 (44%). That's a 22‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 5-0
Jul 2024MEL 40 - 28 WST
Jun 2023MEL 28 - 6 WST
Mar 2023MEL 24 - 12 WST
Mar 2022MEL 26 - 16 WST
Jun 2021MEL 66 - 16 WST
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1629Overall1421
WST
ELO difference: +208 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1002Forwards991
Best: 1251MEL +11Best: 1281
1020Backs1008
Best: 1103MEL +12Best: 1157
1156Halves1046
Best: 1156MEL +110Best: 1046
973Hooker917
MEL +56

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
WST
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
30.8pts
Avg Score
24.0pts
23.2pts
Avg Conceded
26.8pts
7.6pts
Avg Margin
-2.8pts
1642.8m
Run Metres
1653.2m
6.2
Line Breaks
3.4
319.2
Tackles
303.6
12.4
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Storm
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Storm
4
Halves Control9.0%
Storm
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

71%

Storm predicted to win by 15 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +15.3

2/3 match predictions correct
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