# Sea Eagles v Sharks — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 14 – 30 Sharks

_Sharks hunt down Sea Eagles._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 66% / Sharks 34% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 11 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (46' Tipped ⚡), Tolutau Koula (54' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (12' 1st), Addin Fonua-Blake (17'), Braydon Trindall (66'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (73' 1st), KL Iro (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 66% | Lost |
| Sharks | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 14–30 Sharks in NRL Round 10 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen points at the break tells you plenty about how differently these two sides went about their business. The Sharks completed at 81%, coughed the ball up just 11 times and let their halves do the thinking. The Sea Eagles ran hard but sloppy, completing at only 66% with 15 errors, the kind of approach that looks fine on the highlights reel and terrible on the stat sheet.

Sharks 30, Sea Eagles 14 was the final line at Brookvale Oval, and it was built entirely on that gap between patience and ambition. Ronaldo Mulitalo opened the scoring in the 11th minute, Addin Fonua-Blake followed it up six minutes later, and by half-time it was 0-14. Manly hadn't troubled the board at all.

The second half at least had some fight in it. Tolutau Koula crossed twice, in the 46th and 53rd minutes, and suddenly it was 10-14 with the contest very much alive. That's as close as the Sea Eagles got. The Sharks answered through Braydon Trindall in the 65th, Mulitalo again in the 73rd for his second, and KL Iro completed the rout in the 76th. Three tries in twelve minutes to shut the door.

The forward pack numbers were close, 1029 to 1021 in Manly's favour on paper, but you wouldn't know it watching the collisions. The Sharks racked up 562 post-contact metres to 477 and broke 30 tackles to 17, numbers that point to a pack getting more out of the same territory. Nine offloads to five kept the ball alive when it mattered, and the extra go-forward showed up in 1,633 run metres against 1,459.

Where this game was really decided was in the halves. The Sharks went in rated 1285 to 1123 over Manly's pairing, and it played out that way: better completion, sharper decisions, four line breaks to three. Manly's 1200-rated hooker was arguably their best individual match-up on paper, but you need go-forward and clean ball to make that count, and they didn't get enough of either.

Defensively, Manly missed 30 tackles to the Sharks' 17, and an effective tackle rate of 88.5% against 91.9% is the kind of gap that lets sides like Mulitalo cross twice. Seven penalties conceded to five didn't help either, handing Cronulla extra chances to keep hold of the ball they clearly valued more.

Form lines had the Sharks the better outfit coming in, three wins from five to Manly's two, and an average margin of plus-6 against minus-0.4. That gap showed up again here. Alphr's model had Manly as 66% favourites and predicted them to win by 4, which on this evidence was well off the mark, a 16-point loss the other way. The total of 44 wasn't far off the predicted 41, so the shape of a low-scoring arm-wrestle was read correctly even if the winner wasn't. Two from sixteen on the day, and this one goes down as a swing and a miss.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| Sharks | 14 | 16 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 66% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,459 | Run metres | **1,633** |
| 477 | Post-contact metres | **562** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 17 | Tackle breaks | **30** |
| 5 | Offloads | **9** |
| 88.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.9%** |
| 30 | Missed tackles | **17** |
| 15 | Errors | **11** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 631 | Kick metres | **694** |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 66% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. The model went 2/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sharks have a 56% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 53' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 65' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 14-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 73' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 14-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 76' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 14-30 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.65 (edge +6.9%) — model probability 65.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 66% to see off Sharks. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 29 ELO points clear, 1550 to 1521, so the model is backing Sea Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

On paper Sharks shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Sea Eagles, which says Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sea Eagles to win, not to win big.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 48-12 in 2026 Round 21.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 7th against Sharks 6th.

Sea Eagles come in fresher, 14 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 2 · Sharks 8 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 48-12 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 7th · Sharks 6th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Sharks 100% |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 14d · Sharks 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 24W–24L | 50% |
| Sharks | 28W–22L | 56% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 6-point edge: 28W–22L (56%) vs Sea Eagles's 24W–24L (50%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Sharks's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1727.2m | Run Metres | 1814.6m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 330.6 | Tackles | 340.0 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 22.4 |
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 48 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R13 | Sharks | 28 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R6 | Sharks | 24 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 20 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R21 | Sharks | 26 – 30 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 3rd there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.89/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.63/g (def 10th) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) | 1.11/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 219m/g | 168m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 18 | 24 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 696m/g | 770m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 16.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.7% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 12 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 551m/g | 561m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.44) +20% · Wingers 1.41/g (lg 1.25) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (2·1·3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 36/54g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 21/32g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 15/29g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 54' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·4·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 37/53g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/11g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 5/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/21g | 39/132g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Jake Trbojevic | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 17/92g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 16/37g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 8/27g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/27g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/30g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/19g | 0% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/6g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 8 in 9g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·2·2·0·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 6 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 37% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 2/3g | 42% | — | 🏉 12' 73' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/40g | 28% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 3/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Billy Burns | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 2/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1550 vs 1521), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1521 · Sharks 1550 · ELO difference: 29 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1029 (best 1262) | 1021 (best 1309) | Sea Eagles +8 |
| Backs | 974 (best 1130) | 1029 (best 1072) | Sharks +55 |
| Halves | 1123 (best 1123) | 1285 (best 1285) | Sharks +162 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1008 | Sea Eagles +192 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)