Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 66% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sharks have a 55% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
66%
Sharks
34%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. Sharks are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Sea Eagles counter with Forward Pack and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 29-point ELO rating advantage (1550 vs 1521). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 4.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.9%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 22.4 |
Sharks | W W W L L | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Sea Eagles
18.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
-0.4
Sea Eagles
6.0
Sharks
Run Metres
1727
Sea Eagles
1815
Sharks
Line Breaks
5.2
Sea Eagles
3.8
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sharks hold a 5-point edge: 26W–21L (55%) vs Sea Eagles's 23W–23L (50%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1550 vs 1521), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.65).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.0
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