# Raiders v Bulldogs — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 20 – 32 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs surge back to let the dogs loose on Raiders from 20 down._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 62% / Bulldogs 38% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 10 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Zac Hosking (3' 1st), Kaeo Weekes (17'), Xavier Savage (23'), Hudson Young (37' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Stephen Crichton (44'), Jaeman Salmon (47'), Marcelo Montoya (51' Tipped ⚡), Max King (57'), Viliame Kikau (64'), Jacob Kiraz (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 62% | Lost |
| Bulldogs | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 20–32 Bulldogs in NRL Round 10 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders did plenty right at GIO Stadium, right up until they didn't. They completed at 81% to the Bulldogs' 75%, broke 45 tackles to 34, threw the ball around with 11 offloads to 7, and their line speed held up well enough that they missed only 34 tackles all night to the Bulldogs' 45. On the stat sheet, that's the profile of a team controlling a game, not losing one.

For a half, it was exactly that. Zac Hosking opened the scoring inside three minutes, Kaeo Weekes stretched it to 10 just after quarter time, Xavier Savage made it 14 approaching the half hour, and Hudson Young's try on 37 minutes had the Raiders up 20-0 at the break. Four tries, no reply, and a scoreboard that looked like a rout in the making.

Then the Bulldogs took the same 40 minutes the Raiders had just dominated and turned it upside down. Stephen Crichton got them off the mark at 44, Jaeman Salmon followed two minutes later, Marcelo Montoya made it a contest at 20-16 on the hour mark, and Max King's try on 57 minutes squared it at 20-20. From there Viliame Kikau put the Bulldogs in front for the first time at 63 minutes, and Jacob Kiraz sealed it at 71. Six tries, zero from the Raiders, and a 32-20 final that flipped the earlier half on its head.

The line break count tells you where that turnaround came from: Bulldogs 8, Raiders 4. Canterbury also shifted more of the ball forward, 1,733 run metres to 1,435, and did it with fewer errors, 10 to the Raiders' 15. Canberra had the ball doing more work in individual collisions, out-gaining the Bulldogs on post-contact metres 504 to 489, but it's hard to break a line you can't get the ball to often enough, and the Raiders were second on both possession, 49% to 51%, and total metres.

Defence was the other half of the story. The Raiders missed fewer tackles across the match, but the 45 misses from the Bulldogs' line came with 84.3% efficiency against a Raiders side that couldn't find enough answers once the tries started flowing the other way. Canberra's 623 kick metres to 504 says they were happy to play territory, but territory doesn't matter much when the opposition is scoring from broken play.

Pre-match, Alphr's model had the Raiders as 62% favourites and picked them by 4.3 points on a combined total of 43.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Bulldogs | 0 | 32 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| 1,435 | Run metres | **1,733** |
| **504** | Post-contact metres | 489 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| **11** | Offloads | 7 |
| **87.7%** | Effective tackle % | 84.3% |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| 15 | Errors | **10** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **623** | Kick metres | 504 |

**Model Report Card**

Bulldogs defied the model's 62% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 12 points. Bulldogs trailed 20–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–32. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 17' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 37' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 44' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 20-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 46' Try — Jaeman Salmon (Bulldogs) — 20-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 50' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -20 pts
- 57' Try — Max King (Bulldogs) — 20-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 63' Try — Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) — 20-26 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 71' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 20-30 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 61.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 62%, but Bulldogs stay live at 38%. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Bulldogs.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Raiders by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Raiders have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 40-16 in 2026 Round 19.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 2nd against Bulldogs 1st.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 40-16 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 2nd · Bulldogs 1st |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 22W–22L | 50% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–14L | 53% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Raiders 22W–22L (50%) and Bulldogs 16W–14L (53%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Bulldogs get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Margin | 12.4pts |
| 1743.8m | Run Metres | 1757.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 334.4 | Tackles | 338.6 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 32.8 |
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Bulldogs | 16 – 40 | Raiders |
| 2026 | R3 | Raiders | 10 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R22 | Bulldogs | 22 – 18 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R11 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R25 | Raiders | 36 – 24 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 4th there (0.89 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.44/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.88/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.88/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 150m/g | 151m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 85.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 22 | 17 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 677m/g | 789m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.6/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 82.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 5 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 590m/g | 493m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.67) +21% · 2nd Rows 0.54/g (lg 0.45) +20% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 5/15g | 24% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 14/41g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 19/43g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 11/23g | 52% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/13g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 3/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 5/48g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 10/85g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 21/53g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 28/124g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/23g | 4% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·3) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/7g | 2/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | LK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1595 vs 1584), but the market favours Raiders (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1584 · Bulldogs 1595 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1079 (best 1294) | 968 (best 1204) | Raiders +111 |
| Backs | 1053 (best 1200) | 1033 (best 1230) | Raiders +21 |
| Halves | 1053 (best 1053) | 1051 (best 1051) | Raiders +2 |
| Hooker | 987 | 1058 | Bulldogs +71 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Raiders predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)