Win Probability
AI Game Review
Bulldogs defied the model's 62% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 12 points. Bulldogs trailed 20–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–32. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
62%
Bulldogs
38%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Bulldogs are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Raiders by 4.3 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.9%
Line / Spread
Raiders +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.9%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W W | 32.8 |
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Raiders
13.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
13.2
Raiders
12.4
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1744
Raiders
1757
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
5.8
Raiders
5.2
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Raiders 22W–20L (52%) and Bulldogs 14W–14L (50%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1595 vs 1584), but the market favours Raiders (@1.90).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Raiders predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.3
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