# Rabbitohs v Broncos — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 22 – 14 Broncos

_Rabbitohs fight back to hop past Broncos from 14 down._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 37% / Broncos 63% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 09 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Siliva Havili (42'), Isaiah Tass (52' Tipped ⚡), Latrell Mitchell (80' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Jordan Riki (14' 1st), Deine Mariner (35' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 63% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 22–14 Broncos in NRL Round 10 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Broncos winning by 8.6 points. They won by 8, to the Rabbitohs. Get the shape of a blowout right and the direction wrong and you end up with one of the year's ugly misses, and this was that: a 63% Broncos prediction, a 3-16 scorecard on the day, and a final margin that only looked like validation if you didn't check which team it belonged to.

For a half, the model looked prophetic. Jordan Riki crossed in the 14th minute, Deine Mariner added a second in the 34th, and Brisbane went to the sheds up 14-0. That's more or less the version of the match the ratings expected, Broncos with the stronger halves pairing (1244 to 1146) and the better hooker on paper (1100 to 1003) doing enough early to justify the head start. Brisbane's line breaks for the game finished at 9 to 3, and most of that damage was already done by half-time.

Then the second half arrived and the read fell apart. Siliva Havili got Souths on the board in the 42nd minute, Isaiah Tass followed in the 51st to make it 10-14, and Latrell Mitchell finished it off in the 79th for a 20-14 lead that held to full-time at 22-14. Three tries, zero from Brisbane, in a half where the Broncos had led by two scores and looked the stronger side on nearly every carry metric.

Because on the stat sheet, Brisbane still won convincingly. They ran for 1,777 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,555, broke 29 tackles to 19, offloaded 13 times to 8, and tackled at 90.9% effective against Souths' 87.3%. Their line-break count of 9 to 3 is the kind of gap that usually turns into a rout, not a loss. None of it mattered where it counted.

What won it was the ball. South Sydney completed at 80% to Brisbane's 78%, held possession 51% to 49%, and coughed it up 11 times to the Broncos' 12. Small margins, but they add up to more sets, more chances, and eventually more points on a day when the Rabbitohs turned three of them into tries and the Broncos turned none. Souths' forward pack rating (1140 to 1079) came into its own when it mattered most, in the second half, even if it never showed up in the run-metre column.

Brisbane's form line coming in read like a team that closes games out, two wins from five and an average margin of plus-2. This one had the shape of a hold rather than a chase, 14 points banked and a defence rated well ahead of Souths' at the halves and hooker positions. Instead they managed the ball worse when it counted and watched a 14-point buffer disappear without scoring again.

Souths' form had them at 1 win from 5 and conceding nearly 25 points a game, hardly the profile of a side that claws back two scores. They did it anyway, on the back of cleaner footy rather than the eye-catching stuff. The model called the total right, under 48.5, with 36 points on the board. The margin and the winner it got wrong, and wrong is wrong.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 22 | 22 |
| Broncos | 14 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| 1,555 | Run metres | **1,777** |
| 484 | Post-contact metres | **517** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 19 | Tackle breaks | **29** |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| 87.3% | Effective tackle % | **90.9%** |
| 29 | Missed tackles | **19** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **659** | Kick metres | 632 |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 63% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 8 points. Rabbitohs trailed 0–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–14. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Jordan Riki (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 34' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 42' Try — Siliva Havili (Rabbitohs) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 51' Try — Isaiah Tass (Rabbitohs) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 79' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 20-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.32 (edge -13.5%) — model probability 63.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 63%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 125 ELO points clear, 1488 to 1363. Form leans Broncos' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Rabbitohs.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Broncos by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Broncos have won 7 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Broncos 5.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 13th against Broncos 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 5 · Broncos 5 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 48-6 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 13th · Broncos 5th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Broncos 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 9W–11L | 45% |
| Broncos | 12W–8L | 60% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Broncos have won 12 of 20 games (60%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 11.2pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -13.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 1558.4m | Run Metres | 1458.6m |
| 2.4 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 362.2 | Tackles | 333.2 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 1W–4L | 11.2 |
| Broncos | 2W–3L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 48 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R22 | Broncos | 60 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R2 | Broncos | 28 – 18 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 36 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Tass, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.78 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 13th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Reynolds, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.56/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.78/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 10 | 9 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 174m/g | 99m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 16 | 26 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 650m/g | 628m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 17.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.8% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 457m/g | 602m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 12.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.67) +7% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 1.26) -3%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.27) +70% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (2·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/16g | 23/41g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| 2 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 5/24g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 25/52g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Myers | WG | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 5g | 2/7g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 29% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/20g | 2% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/42g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 5/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | INT | 4 in 9g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/9g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/25g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selwyn Cobbo | FB | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/4g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Deine Mariner | WG | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/4g | 2/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·1·3·1·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/23g | 3/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 12/61g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.80 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $46.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cory Paix | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Fletcher Baker | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1363 · Broncos 1488 · ELO difference: 125 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1140 (best 1310) | 1079 (best 1362) | Rabbitohs +62 |
| Backs | 1020 (best 1165) | 1016 (best 1141) | Rabbitohs +4 |
| Halves | 1146 (best 1146) | 1244 (best 1244) | Broncos +98 |
| Hooker | 1003 | 1100 | Broncos +97 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Broncos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)