AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Rabbitohs bucked the trend — Broncos historically win 63% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 63% prediction for Broncos — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 8 points. Rabbitohs trailed 0–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–14. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
37%
Broncos
63%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1488 vs 1363). Recent form favours Broncos with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Broncos by 8.6 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.5%
Line / Spread
Broncos +9.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.5%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WLLLL | 11.2 |
Broncos | WWLLL | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Rabbitohs
24.0
Broncos
Avg Margin
-13.6
Rabbitohs
2.0
Broncos
Run Metres
1558
Rabbitohs
1459
Broncos
Line Breaks
2.4
Rabbitohs
4.0
Broncos
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Broncos have won 12 of 19 games (63%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 8 from 19 (42%). That's a 21‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.3 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Broncos predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -8.6
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.