Win Probability
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 63% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 8 points. Rabbitohs trailed 0–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–14. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
37%
Broncos
63%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1488 vs 1363). Recent form favours Broncos with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Broncos by 8.6 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.5%
Line / Spread
Broncos +9.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.5%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W L L L L | 11.2 |
Broncos | W W L L L | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Rabbitohs
24.0
Broncos
Avg Margin
-13.6
Rabbitohs
2.0
Broncos
Run Metres
1558
Rabbitohs
1459
Broncos
Line Breaks
2.4
Rabbitohs
4.0
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Broncos have won 12 of 20 games (60%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Broncos's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Broncos predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -8.6
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